17th SEPTEMBER 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
Lucas Pouille looks a better prospect than Kimmer Coppejans...
With WTA action being early in the morning for the most part this week, and ATP Metz having generally high projected holds, this week sees a good opportunity to make use of the Challenger Daily Spreadsheets which are now available.
Liquidity is very mixed but when there's no live streamed matches on, the liquidity in the streamed Challengers can be pretty solid. Naturally those take our focus today and unlike in Guangzhou, all five Challenger events have streaming today.
In Meknes, Morocco, Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo takes on Kimmer Coppejans at around 12:30 and I feel that the Spaniard is value at around 2.14 here. He's a journeyman, mainly of the Challenger Tour, but his stats are still strong at 36 years of age. Coppejans is 16 years his junior, at 20, but it's the senior player with the stronger stats in clay Challengers.
RRH has won 22/38 in the last 12 months, whilst some strong recent form has taken Coppejans to 12/24. In those, RRH has held 7.3% more and broken exactly the same amount, and this generates the value on him.
With Coppejans holding just 64.9% in that sample, taking on his serve is attractive and I like opposing him when a break up today, either in the first or third sets, or when a set and break up in the second, all of which should be at short prices.
Another match there which has caught my eye is Lucas Pouille against Yannick Mertens.
The 20 year old young French prospect, Pouille, starts at around 1.43 today and I make that solid value with my model making him 1.25. There's just 48 ranking places between them (199 vs 247) but very different stats, with Pouille winning 11 of 20 on clay in the last 12 months, with Mertens getting just three of 12 victories.
In those matches, Pouille has held 9.3% more and broken 9.9% more, and with Mertens holding a mere 62.7%, we can look to take advantage of his weaknesses and oppose him in similar scenarios to Coppejans - when a set and break up or a break up in the deciding set looking like particularly solid scenarios.
Over in Campinas, Brazil, I feel Facundo Arguello is the value pick at a short price (1.30) against Jose Pereira. Looking at Pereira's stats he seems to be solid enough on serve but dreadful on return - but with Arguello breaking 35.9% in Challengers on clay in the last 12 months, the Argentine should be able to pressurise his less illustrious opponent regularly.
Laying Pereira when a set and break up, or a break in the third set, looks the way to go there.
I also think Guilherme Clezar should be able to break with regularity against 1120 ranked Nicolas Santos, but is priced realistically at around 1.23.
In fact, at 26 years old, Santos got his first ever Challenger win on clay in the first round against fellow nobody Marcelo Zormann, and I'd be surprised if Clezar had much difficulty today.
The same lines as Arguello apply here also.
Please note that all trades are just recommendations and I can take no liability for any losses incurred.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
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