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Since Service Began in August: 411 Bets, 14.99pts Profit (0.79pts average stake), ROI 4.59%
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6th MARCH 2014 PREVIEWS
Day two of Indian Wells sees ATP action commence and there are 16 first round ties for the men, as well as the women, who complete the first round tonight.
As yesterday, play starts at 7pm UK time but it's a match scheduled to be second on, and streamed live, which catches my attention - the all-US clash between Michael Russell and Donald Young.
I make Young strong favourite for this with much better recent ATP stats but the markets have him marginally ahead at 1.90 - however Young's record as slight favourite doesn't inspire huge confidence, and Russell leads the head to head results 7-4.
Russell's ATP record on hard court won't inspire confidence amongst his backers with a solitary win from nine outings in the last 12 months and he's only held 67.9% in those matches, breaking 14.0%. Those stats won't get the job done against many...
My model indicates Russell has a low projected hold and I feel opposing him generally here is the way to go - certainly his serve can be laid in a variety of circumstances, and it's also worth mentioning that he's awful a break up - losing a break lead 59.26% of the time in the last 12 months (well above the top 100 average of 32.28%).
Even with Young recovering a deficit just 25.00% in that time period, that's more than enough to warrant laying Russell a break up in this.
Another interesting match is between Alejandro Falla and Federico Delbonis with Falla's poor record as favourite the only factor stopping me getting involved with the Columbian at 1.73 pre-match.
That price is a huge over-reaction to Delbonis' win last week in Sao Paulo (on clay) and no doubt Falla is the more accomplished hard courter.
Delbonis, on hard/indoor in the last 12 months at ATP level has a 2-4 record, holding 73.8% and breaking a mere 6.5%, and those stats will need to improve greatly if he is to become a threat away from the dirt.
Furthermore, after a tough week last week, it would be understandable if he took it easy here.
His projected hold for this is low and unless he's holding to love on a regular basis, his serve should be laid when the match is on serve only - his stats when a break up are solid.
In WTA action, it's the clashes between Urszula Radwanska and Alexsandra Wozniak, who have both struggled with injuries lately, and Alisa Kleybanova and Victoria Duval that have the potential for the most breaks.
Duval's stats in qualifiers show that she has ability but a game more geared to return than serving, whilst Kleybanova's service stats since her return to tour do not impress - I feel value on Duval as an underdog here.
Radwanska has the better 12 month stats than Wozniak, and should be too good at 1.80 for their match, and overall in these matches both Kleybanova and Wozniak's serve can be laid with high positive expectation.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
5th MARCH 2014 PREVIEWS
Indian Wells WTA event is due to start in around six hours so now seems as good a time as any to preview some of the 16 matches scheduled for tonight.
US tournaments are pretty convenient for non full-time traders with matches tonight commencing at 7pm UK time and going on until the early hours and I too like the times, with a more leisurely morning than European events meaning that all preparation can be done by around lunchtime.
As mentioned in the tournament preview below (which I will keep posted on the main page for the duration of the event), the courts should play a little on the slow side and this is reflected in the projected holds for today's matches.
Annika Beck has her traditional low projected hold, even against an opponent who doesn't have the best return stats on hard court in Stefanie Voegele, who has broken just 26.4% on the surface in the last 12 months.
However Beck's service hold of 46.4% is by far the worst in the top 50 and is a huge 16.8% below WTA surface average.
Beck starts as favourite at around 1.55 for this battle of two players who have more fight and determination than most on the WTA Tour and this seems a little short to me, although I do still make her favourite as she edges two low projected holds and has much better break point stats, according to the TennisRatings Tier Two Spreadsheet for today's matches.
Laying either player's serve is recommended in certain circumstances using the Rolling Projected Hold triggers from the spreadsheets, and also laying either player a break up is statistically viable.
Beck has given up a break lead 64.0% in the last 12 months whilst Voegele has done so 54.7% - both above the 48.6% top 100 mean.
With both player's deficit recovery stats around average - Beck's is 54.4% whilst Voegele is 49.2% in the last year, the combined score for both players when a break up is over the required 105 as detailed in the WTA break-back percentages article.
Another player that statistics indicate should be laid when a break up is Anna Schmiedlova, who has lost a break lead an incredible 76.9% in the last 12 months.
She starts as a slight underdog against Yanina Wickmayer who is around 1.70 for this, and that price seems reasonably justified based on my model.
Wickmayer doesn't have the best break deficit recovery stats but did significantly improve her percentage to 43.3% from February's 35.7% in the last month and clearly when Schmiedlova leads by a break the combined score is well over 105, and actually is a touch over the higher level of 120 from the article.
Despite these stats Schmiedlova has held 62.1% on the surface in the past 12 months and this is just 1.1% below WTA mean, so laying her serve in individual games isn't recommended (her projected hold is pretty much bang on average) but she seems to have real problems holding onto leads.
Finally I feel Kristina Mladenovic is worth opposing against Shuai Zhang whose stats are flattered a little from playing some WTA Challenger events but even so, has a big edge against the Frenchwoman, who I feel is more suited to indoors than outdoor hard surfaces.
Even taking this opponent quality factor into account my model priced Zhang much shorter than the current 1.50 available price and her projected hold is high, with Mladenovic's low.
Backing Zhang when losing on serve at points recommended by the TennisRatings Trading Handbook is a viable strategy and laying Mladenovic's serve generally is too - with the Rolling Projected Holds indicating these options can be taken pretty much all the time.
Mladenovic has been poor when a break up, losing her lead 62.2% in the last 12 months to go back on serve, whilst Zhang's 50.0% recovery percentage is solid but unspectacular. Even allowing for that, the combined score of 112.2 is easily enough to warrant laying Mladenovic a break up.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow - when the ATP also gets underway!
INDIAN WELLS ATP & WTA
With several days to go before the WTA event starts on Wednesday (the ATP tournament begins on Thursday) I thought I'd write an advance preview of both tournaments prior to the draws being made.
The Indian Wells event is the first of two Masters/Premier Mandatory events in March with Miami following in a fortnight.
The fields in both events are comprised of 96 players, with the tournaments being played over an unusual 10/11 day format. The effect of this is that there are an avalanche of early matches, and then few in the second week.
Last year there were 62.1% holds in the WTA event which is 1.1% below the WTA hard court average, whilst the ATP had 75.9% holds - 2.4% below the ATP hard court mean.
On that basis it can be said that the courts will play a little on the slow side and there will be slightly more service breaks than the average hard court event. Therefore laying the server and laying the player a break up should have more application than the average tournament, and positive expectation opportunities will exist in this area in the next fortnight.
For those who are unaware, Masters and Premier Mandatory events offer large ranking points and financial incentives to players and it's pretty rare for a player not to give their all when those benefits are there, although those incentives do mean that injured players tend to turn up for their first round match with no real chance of winning, so that needs to be guarded against.
Due to the incentives mentioned above, favourites tend to thrive in Masters/Premier Mandatory events and looking at the 2013 historical data was interesting in this respect.
There was a clear discrepancy between the first round and subsequent rounds for favourite success, with the vast majority of underdog wins coming in the opening few days of the events.
The WTA had worse results blindly backing favourites, with a 68.8% win percentage incurring a -4.29% ROI loss in 2013. However the ATP actually managed a slight profit, with its 71.0% win percentage generating 1.51% ROI simply by backing the favoured player.
What is interesting to see is that since 2006, there have been no repeat winners of the event in the WTA - mainly due to the long-term absence of Serena Williams from the event. With Victoria Azarenka (2012 winner) and Maria Sharapova (2013 winner) having doubts about whether they are going into the event in their best form, the WTA event is particularly open this year.
Despite there being various winners of the event, only Daniela Hantuchova (14th seed) and Kim Clijsters (unseeded but clearly a top player) were winners from outside the top six seeds in the last 10 years so it's that area that needs to be considered for potential winners.
Only Caroline Wozniacki (8) and Marion Bartoli (15) were outside the top five seeds when runner up in the last 10 years, giving further weight to looking at the top six seeds for outright positions.
In the men's event, Roger Federer has won four of the last 10 tournaments but only once since 2006. He rolled back the years in Dubai last week with some superb tennis although statistics do not support his ability to reproduce this week in, week out.
Rafael Nadal has won three of the last seven here with Novak Djokovic taking two titles. Only Ivan Ljubicic (20th seed) has won in the last 10 years when outside the top five seeds, and realistically the top three seeds have the best chances with in addition only Nadal (5th seed only due to injury) winning from outside the top three seeds.
This makes life potentially difficult for Andy Murray, who hasn't recaptured his best form since back surgery and has a historically bad record here, with a solitary runner-up position being his best finish.
There have been a real mixed bag of runners up with John Isner, Mardy Fish and James Blake making the final in recent years, so whilst the top players in the market are most likely to win, outright backers of a long shot may have opportunities to trade out in the later stages of the men's event.
2nd MARCH SAO PAULO FINAL PREVIEW
Federico Delbonis is strong favourite to win his first ATP title...
Just the one match today and it's the final of Sao Paulo, and if you'd have requested odds on the two players participating to be Federico Delbonis and Paolo Lorenzi at the start of the week, you'd have got huge odds!
The Argentine starts as a strong favourite at around 1.42 to gain his first ATP title but the veteran Italian Lorenzi - who also would get a first title - will draw strength from a 3-0 head to head lead which were all from Challengers on clay.
However considering Lorenzi was the higher ranked player in all of those (currently he is the lower ranked by 53 spots) it's questionable how relevant that is.
Delbonis' success on clay isn't a huge surprise considering to me considering he was identified in my 'Which young ATP players can make it?' articles in July last year, with stats illustrating that out of all players under 22 and ranked outside the top 50 he had the best win percentage at ATP level, which actually put him on a par with Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet at a similar age.
Back to today's match, I feel Delbonis is the justified favourite and my model made him almost the same as the current market price.
The Tier Two Daily Spreadsheets show that Delbonis' projected hold is high, whilst Lorenzi's is marginally below ATP clay average.
With a high break point 'clutch' score, backing Delbonis when losing on serve at points specified in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook is recommended.
I'd be surprised if there were a huge amount of breaks in this and it's worth noting that the ATP Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet showed that laying the player a break up wasn't viable at all.
Both Lorenzi and Delbonis recovered a break deficit less than 30% in the last 12 months which is a little below average, and with percentages of 34.48% and 35.00% respectively for break lead loss (marginally above average) there's clearly no edge in the long term for this trade here.
Action returns on the 5th March when the WTA get started at Indian Wells, so good luck today and there will be more then!
28th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
It's the quarter finals in Sao Paulo today and the semi finals everywhere else as this week's tournaments get towards the business end.
Today's matches are fairly tough to assess with all players that my model indicated value on having various doubts over them which has made me feel that there isn't much in the way of reliable pre-match picks.
No doubt that if Klara Zakopalova isn't feeling the exertions of the last fortnight, she is value at around 2.35 against Carla Suarez Navarro in Florianopolis but I can't consider that a given.
Projected holds are very low for this and if Zakopalova's game is on, CSN's serve should be greatly pressured here.
Not only this, combined scores are above the required 105 when both players are a break up, so laying either player when leading is recommended.
Suarez Navarro lost a break lead 52.68% in the last 12 months with Zakopalova recovering a deficit 56.76%, whilst Zakopalova lost a break lead a huge 63.64% and CSN recovered one 44.68%, which is low but still takes the combined score over 105.
I feel Dominika Cibulkova is short at 1.33 for her match with Shuai Zhang in Acapulco but Zhang's record as a heavy underdog doesn't inspire huge confidence.
I do feel that laying Cibulkova's serve from the off and seeing how things progress using the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet triggers from Rolling Projected Holds is the way forward here.
In men's action, Juan Monaco doesn't have a great record as a slight favourite but looks to be some value against Paolo Lorenzi in Sao Paulo with the market very much against the Argentine at 1.56 after some recent poor displays.
He got past Albert Ramos yesterday despite conceding 18 break points to Ramos' 7 which is one of the biggest winners discrepancies I can remember for a fair while.
Lorenzi's projected hold is low for this and his serve can be laid at almost all times when the price is viable.
Furthermore, the Italian can be laid when a break up as he gives up a break lead 34.48% and Monaco recovers a break deficit 50.85% in the last 12 months - giving a combined score of 85.33 when Lorenzi is a break up - well above the required 75 in the ATP.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
26th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
Today's matches got underway around an hour ago and whilst there's not much value abounding on the ATP side today, there is a match which has excellent trading potential.
Both Gilles Simon and Donald Young (above, pictured) are much better on return than serve with both posting very weak serve numbers.
This leads to two low projected holds and Simon is perhaps a little short at 1.34 for this. However with projected holds this low, opposing either server can be considered in most circumstances, according to the Rolling Projected Holds in the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet, and also laying Young when a break up is recommended.
The stats in the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet show that Simon recovered a break deficit a strong 42.86% in the last 12 months, and Young's stats when a break up were horrific - losing a break lead 58.82%. This gives a combined score of 101.68 when Young is a break up - much higher than the required 75.
In WTA action, I feel the match between Alexandra Dulgheru and Teliana Pereira could also have breaks in it with both players having stronger return stats than service stats, although sample size on Pereira on a hard court is small.
Projected holds are low and close and make Dulgheru the slight favourite, which is what the markets do too.
Laying either player's serve in most circumstances looks viable according to the triggers, and laying either player a break up - both have lost a break lead over 60% - particularly Dulgheru, also appeals.
Finally I feel Kimiko Date-Krumm should be favourite against Christina McHale and I'd be surprised if she didn't at least trade a fair bit lower, and take a set at the very minimum.
The Japanese veteran edges two projected holds a little below WTA mean, but the swings her should come when a player leads by a break.
Date-Krumm is one of the worst in the WTA for holding onto a break lead, losing it 67.35% in the last 12 months. The combined score when she leads by a break is 114.72 when McHale's 47.37% deficit recovery is factored in.
McHale lost a break lead 57.89% in the same time period and with Date-Krumm recovering 48.72% of the time, this is also above the required 105 for laying the player a break up in this.
This match could well be a bit of a comedy of errors with both players struggling to get a convincing lead.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
25th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
54 matches today and there's not far off 24 hour trading conditions for those who don't like sleeping...
Four matches got underway around half an hour ago leaving just the 50 to get my teeth into for today's selected match previews.
With such a lot of matches available, I thought I'd write a little on quite a few matches, as opposed to a lot on a few matches.
In Dubai, I like the chances of Ivan Dodig at around 1.50 against the usually over-rated Sergiy Stakhovsky and laying the Ukranian's serve with a low projected hold looks good in a lot of circumstances.
Teymuraz Gabashvili's match with James Ward looks good for trading with two low projected holds. Ward has improved notably of late but does have a worse hard court challenger record than Gabashvili, who is justifiably favourite, although perhaps a little short at 1.47.
Breaks and swings look very possible in the Nikolay Davydenko and Andrey Golubev match with again two low projected holds on display. Davydenko's service stats have declined significantly lately and he stands at just 69.0% holds on hard court in the last 12 months.
Donald Young retired in qualifying in Acapulco with a shoulder injury but without seeing his match it's difficult to know if this was a precaution or whether he's taking advantage of the vagaries of the lucky loser system. He faces Jarkko Nieminen today and Nieminen, who isn't without fitness issues himself, still looks value at 1.44. Laying Young a break up here looks a great play.
Lukasz Kubot's match with David Goffin looks to have fantastic potential for trading with two very low projected holds and two very high combined scores when either player leads by a break. You shouldn't go far wrong in the long run laying either player's serve or either player a break up in this match-up.
Julian Reister's serve stats on clay in the last 12 months are atrocious and in Sao Paulo he takes on Andreas Haider-Maurer in a very low quality affair. Value perhaps on AHM as an underdog but you can read the same for this match as Kubot v Goffin.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez looks value against Rogerio Dutra Silva with the Brazilian rarely winning at ATP level. Opposing Silva should work well here.
In WTA action, in Florianopolis, both Kiki Bertens and Sesil Karatantcheva have awful stats on hard court and both could struggle to hold serve here. I don't have in-play stats on Karatantcheva but I'd be surprised if either held much more than they were broken.
Klara Zakopalova had a long week last week and Donna Vekic has ability - however with Vekic's ridiculously poor break point stats being a big obstacle for her to overcome, Zakopalova is fairly priced at 1.50. If Vekic can address this issue she will become a serious player.
Projected holds are low as usual for a Zakopalova match and we should be able to get an idea of how this match will go in the opening few games - whether Zakopalova puts up much of a fight if she goes a few games behind is up for debate.
Teliana Pereira has awful hard court stats in main draw and qualifying matches and I'm surprised to see Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor the underdog here, as she's taken wins from Pironkova & Zakopalova on the surface in the last 12 months, so she's clearly no mug on hard courts, despite both preferring clay.
Pereira's projected hold is super low and I feel opposing her in any way, shape or form is the way to go - laying her serve or her when a break up looks good.
Over in the women's event in Acapulco, Yvonne Meusburger could be some value at 1.94 against Sharon Fichman who had a good run in the Midland ITF event 2 weeks ago and qualified here.
As with Zakopalova, you can almost guarantee low projected holds on a Meusburger match so opposing the server, particularly Fichman, should work well here.
I feel that both Shahar Peer and Caroline Garcia offer value as underdogs against Eugenie Bouchard and Lourdes Dominguez Lino respectively but Bouchard tends to get the job done with minimum fuss when short priced, and how much confidence anyone can have with Garcia at the moment is up for question.
Finally a welcome back to tour for Iveta Melzer (ex Benesova) against Victoria Duval - after 18 months away from the tour it's tough to have any idea how this match will go though.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
24th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
Today's five tournaments get started in around an hour at ATP Dubai and one match which should be good to trade is the clash between Andreas Seppi (above, pictured) and Florian Mayer.
Certainly the German has had a much better 2014 season so far and starts the match at around 1.55 favourite. Based on stats that's probably a little short but fairly understandable given a noticeable decline in Seppi lately.
Those stats generate two projected holds a little below ATP average on courts that may play a little slowly (service holds were 2.1% below ATP average last year) and both players look vulnerable a break up.
Seppi lost a break lead 46.88% in the last 12 months which is very high, and with Mayer's 33.82% break deficit recovery percentage around average, the combined score when Seppi leads by a break is 80.7% - above the required 75 in the ATP.
Mayer lost a break lead 35.96% and Seppi recovered a break deficit 41.38%, so the combined score when Mayer leads by a break is also above 75 - 77.34.
Both the ATP & WTA events in Acapulco are now on hard courts after switching from clay and the opener between Dudi Sela and Alejandro Falla appeals on a trading basis.
Sela's matches generally feature many breaks and swings and this is natural with his stats indicating 64.4% holds and 33.3% breaks on hard court in the last 12 months.
Prices are just coming through but Falla is currently a best price 1.77 which seems to be a touch of value.
Projected holds are both very low for this and laying the server when the match is on serve looks good in all circumstances based on the Rolling Projected Holds in today's Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet.
Furthermore, both players struggle to hold onto break leads with Sela losing one a whopping 62.50% in the last 12 months, and Falla doing so 51.61%. Both combined scores are gigantic so laying either player a break up looks to have a huge edge.
Finally, WTA action in Florianopolis gets underway after it was delayed yesterday and the match between Anna Schmiedlova and Monica Niculescu looks good for trading with projected holds both low.
Last year in Brazil service holds were low in this event (4.2% below WTA hard court mean) and I'd expect Schmeidlova to struggle to hold in particular (Niculescu has broken a superb 52.1% on hard courts in the last 12 months).
The combined score on her when a break up is a massive 126.79 - she has lost a break lead 75.00% in the last 12 months whilst Niculescu has recovered a deficit an average 51.79% of the time.
Laying Schmiedlova when a break up, with a low projected hold and a high combined score, hugely appeals.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
20th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
Four of this week's tournaments reach the quarter final stages today, and the WTA event in Dubai plays the semi-finals.
Despite there being 18 matches today, there really isn't an abundance of value to be had based on pre-match prices, although that wasn't the case yesterday, with TennisRatings Tips subscribers celebrating three wins out of three, as Roger-Vasselin, Sousa and Sousa +1.5 sets all came in.
Due to this lack of value, today's previews will focus on the matches where I feel there will be a lot of breaks and swings, and these come in WTA Rio.
The quarter final line-up in Brazil is hardly the who's who of the WTA and it's worth noting that only three of the eight remaining competitors have average service holds over 57.1%. Considering the WTA mean on clay is 61.3%, this illustrates that service holds could be a struggle for many women today.
However we don't necessarily need the biggest matches to find the best trading angles and today's stats show this.
Kurumi Nara (above pictured) takes on Lourdes Dominguez Lino in the opener and projected holds are very low for this indeed, and I feel that both women could struggle to hold more often than they get broken.
Clay data is scarce on Nara, who has only played the matches this week on the surface in the last year but using some qualifier stat adjustments in combination with her stats this week lead me to believe her serve will not thrive. Certainly, at 5 foot 2, she isn't built to be a big server...
Lino starts as slight favourite, currently at around 1.83 and that's fairly reasonable. In such a competitive match I'd recommend to lay either player's serve from the off and then apply break-back percentages once a player goes a break up.
These show that Lino, in particular, is vulnerable a break up and should be laid in that situation.
In the last 12 months, when a break up, she's lost that lead 59.65% of the time, whilst Nara has recovered a break deficit to go back on serve 51.85%. This leads to a combined score of 111.50 which is above the required 105 to take such action.
Whilst Nara loses a break lead a similar amount - 58.33% - Lino doesn't get leads back enough to warrant the same course of action, doing so just 45.10%. This means laying Nara has marginally positive expectation at 103.43 (average is 98.26) but it's below the 105 threshold.
I think Klara Zakopalova's match with Katarzyna Piter should also feature breaks (as usual with Zakopalova) and as 1.22 favourite, the Czech has a reasonable edge of two low projected holds.
They indicate Zakopalova is perhaps a little short for this but as Nara, there's a lack of decent main draw clay data for Piter.
This lack of data basically means I don't have in-play stats on Piter but I do like the options of laying Zakopalova a break up here, with her being a touch short, and having a low projected hold.
Piter's projected hold is woeful too and she should struggle to hold more often than she gets broken but unless she can lead in this we may not get the chance to oppose her serve realistically.
The final match I want to assess is Teliana Pereira against Irina Begu with Pereira - who starts as a 1.67 favourite - edging two more low projected holds.
Begu in particular has a very weak service game but has much better return stats.
With the combined score when Begu is a break up being a huge 136.73 (it is very rare that a player has a combined score this big) laying Begu a break up is mandatory.
Laying either player's serve when the match is on serve also works well for me.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
19th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
Today's matches have been underway for several hours so I will preview some of this afternoon/evening's matches.
Soon to start at WTA Rio de Janiero is Katerzina Piter agianst Dinah Pfizenmaier with Pfizenmaier the 1.65 favourite.
I really feel this an excellent price on the German, who has strong clay stats from 11 WTA matches on the surface in the last year.
Piter's only WTA clay match in that time period was her unsurprising first round win over Haddad Maia and her clay qualifying stats aren't great at all, and she lost 5/9 in the last 12 months.
On the flip side Pfizenmaier won 8/9 clay qualifiers in addition to her strong WTA record and I'd be surprised if she lost this.
With a low projected hold and a non-value price, laying Piter's serve in many circumstances can be considered according to the Rolling Projected Holds in the TennisRatings Tier Two Spreadsheet.
Another match of interest is the standard Klara Zakopalova match - today she faces Silvia Soler-Espinosa, who after a torrid hard court season, must be delighted to get back on her favoured dirt.
Both have very low projected holds for this and Soler-Espinosa's is especially low - I expect her to have real issues holding consistently today and it wouldn't surprise me at all if she was broken more often than she held.
As she's given up a break lead 53.33% and Zakopalova has recovered a break deficit 56.76%, the combined score when Soler-Espinosa is a break up is over the required 105, so laying the Spaniard when a break should be viable.
Due to Soler-Espionosa's woeful 36.96% break deficit recovery, sadly the same cannot be considered when Zakopalova is a break up.
In around an hour, Alize Cornet takes on Kirsten Flipkens in Dubai and I feel there is value on the Frenchwoman here against an opponent that hasn't hugely impressed in the first couple of months of the season.
Flipkens' stats have detiorated in the last six months and I make Cornet much stronger favourite than the current 1.85.
Flipkens has a low projected hold for this so I feel opposing her serve from the off is a good plan, and using the triggers from the Tier Two Spreadsheets should create some future entry points.
However the combined score on her when a break up isn't high enough to lay her a break up as a longer-term trade.
In ATP action, I feel David Ferrer is way too short at 1.09 against Federico Delbonis, who is a player of high potential on clay.
No doubt Ferrer should be heavy favourite but this price is ridiculous considering he's declined a little, and had a long week last week.
He will probably win but Delbonis is no mug, and has a good record when heavy underdog so will not be overawed at all - let's not forget he beat Federer on clay last year.
I feel a lay-to-back of Ferrer is the way forward here, especially as, without a high projected hold, he could easily drop serve early before recovering.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
18th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
WTA Rio is my focus today, as it features some matches with huge trading potential today with projected holds low, and break-back potential high. With almost all matches streamed, this should be an excellent day for trading in Brazil.
The top seed Klara Zakopalova (above, pictured) starts her campaign today against the Columbian clay courter, Mariana Duque-Marino, and as generally the case with the Czech, projected holds are low.
Zakopalova's is 'less bad' than Duque Marino's and justifies her current price at around 1.39, with her break point 'clutch' score much better.
Opposing Duque Marino's serve when possible seems a huge play and also, opposing either player a break up makes statistical sense.
The WTA Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet shows that Zakopalova, when a break up, gave it back 63.64% and Duque Marino recovered a break deficit 50.00% in the last 12 months.
Duque Marino, when a break up was even worse! She lost a break advantage 71.43% of the time, with Zakopalova recovering it 56.76%.
This takes the combined score way over the required 105 to lay either player a break up.
Another match where this is the case is the clash between Alexandra Cadantu and Teliana Pereira, and Cadantu's recent injury doubts must be the reason why Pereira is short at 1.53.
Both projected holds are low and close, and with both women losing break leads and recovering break deficits over 50%, their combined scores are also way over 105, at 119.89 and 112.27 respectively.
Laying either player's serve on serve, particularly Pereira's seems a good starting point and using the triggers from the Rolling Projected Holds in the Tier Two Spreadsheets afterwards, is the way to go here.
Laying either player a break up is definitely viable too.
Finally Irina Begu is around evens for her match with Vania King and projected holds are again, low for this. The Romanian held just 45.3% on clay in 2012, breaking exactly the same figure.
I have to mention as well that Begu is one of the worst players in the WTA for holding onto a break lead, losing it 65.22% in the last 12 months. King's break deficit recovery is around average at 51.35% so laying Begu a break up is definitely recommended.
As with the other matches above, laying each player's serve initially and using Rolling Projected Holds to proceed is also viable.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
17th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
5 tournaments greet me on my return from New York and there will be plenty for bettors and traders to get their teeth into this week.
As always, Monday starts off fairly quietly and the three early matches in WTA Dubai have been completed. Both matches remaining there look fairly accurately priced although Sorana Cirstea and Roberta Vinci, who has been very disappointing in 2014, both have low projected holds for their match.
The WTA also has its first clay event of the season and it's a very low quality affair in Rio De Janeiro.
Rio is a new event so it will be interesting to see how the courts play and I will be keeping an eye on this throughout the week.
With the field being low in quality, decent stats are hard to come by today but two matches that could be interesting to traders are the matches between Johanna Larsson and Alison Van Uytvanck and also Nicole Gibbs against Paula Ormaechea.
Larsson has a strong 9-6 record on clay in the last 12 months and clay stats are fairly limited on Van Uytvanck, but in two WTA matches on the surface in the last year she only held 7.7%...
In 2 main draw matches and 3 qualifiers she's held a combined 57.5% and broken 30.8% and those are obviously poor stats. She has mixed ITF success on the surface, winning the Chiasso clay event last year (however she was priced under 1.50 for all 5 matches - so clearly played inferior opposition)
She has a low projected hold for this and I feel Larsson is the value pick at around 1.75.
Laying Van Uytvanck's serve from the start and then assessing, using the Rolling Projected Holds in the TennisRatings Tier Two Spreadsheet, seems a very reasonable approach for this match.
In the other match I mentioned, Ormaechea has a very strong 9-3 clay record in the last 12 months and should be too good for Gibbs, who has played just 2 clay matches on the main tour or qualifying in the past 3 years.
Projected holds are low for this, in particular on Gibbs, and I feel opposing her serve when realistically possible appeals here.
Having done some work on tomorrow's matches in Rio for the Tier Two Spreadsheet already this morning, I can say with certainly that they will contain some matches with huge swing trading potential...
In ATP action I like Blaz Kavcic's chances against Thanasi Kokkinakis in today's only match in Marseille, and clearly I'm not alone in that as his price has shortened significantly.
The young Australian has a low projected hold here and opposing his serve in most circumstances works well for me.
The other matches that interest me mainly come at ATP Rio de Janeiro, and the clash between Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Martin Klizan is intriguing.
The Spaniard, I feel, is over-rated here at around 1.83 with Klizan holding 74.2% to 69.3% on clay in the last 12 months, and breaking 25.9% to 26.6%.
With a better break point 'clutch' score according to the daily spreadsheets, and having been accustomed to the court in qualifying, I feel Klizan is value.
However, it's worth pointing out his record as a slight underdog is atrocious (as is his record when a set up), but I do feel he will trade much shorter. I can see Klizan taking the first set and losing this.
Projected holds are both low and using the Rolling Projected Holds in the Tier Two Spreadsheet will provide some good triggers for laying the server when the match is on serve.
A quick round-up of some of the other matches sees Filippo Volandri take on Dusan Lajovic with the Italian some value at around 1.75. For once his projected hold isn't very low, due to the poor return game of the Serb.
However, Lajovic's projected hold isn't good - his clay service hold isn't impressive at all and Volandri's return game is exceptional (32.0% breaks on the surface in the last 12 months at ATP level) so laying Lajovic's serve when possible definitely appeals.
Finally, Thomaz Bellucci faces Santiago Giraldo with Giraldo marginal favourite at around 1.75.
Projected holds are around average, in Giraldo's favour, making the SP fairly reasonable.
What is worth mentioning is Bellucci's in-play stats give weight to price swings in-play.
According to the ATP Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet, the Brazilian has lost a break lead 43.75% - well above average - but recovered a break deficit an excellent 48.78%.
The net result of this is that with Giraldo losing a break lead 32.50% in the past 12 months, the combined score on Giraldo when a break up is 81.28 - above the required 75 as detailed in the ATP break-back percentages article.
On that basis, laying Giraldo when a break up appeals.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
11th FEBRUARY MATCH PREVIEWS
My last match previews for a few days as I'm going to New York for a short break early tomorrow morning until Sunday - normal service will resume on Monday!
Today's matches are getting underway in Rotterdam and Doha and with so many matches I will be fairly brief with my thoughts and cover a few matches.
There are 18 matches in Doha today and the one I'm looking at with low projected holds is Klara Zakopalova against Elina Svitolina with both players below the WTA average, and having combined scores over 105 when a break up.
Zakopalova is currently 2.40 underdog after her Fed Cup exploits (she played a match and a half yesterday) and otherwise she would be slight favourite for this.
The stats mean that laying either player's serve when on serve and laying them a break up are viable strategies.
Other players with low projected holds are underdogs Cagla Buyucackay (against Karolina Pliskova) and Al-Nabhani whose projected hold is an incredible 25%! Her opponent, Monica Niculescu, is 1.05 and she actually should be 1.01 according to my model.
Also, since her return to tour, Alisa Kleybanova has held just 47.4% of the time and if we get a chance to lay her serve against Dominika Cibulkova then that should be viable.
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni should also find it hard to hold consistently against Yvonne Meusburger, who has excellent return stats.
In men's action in Memphis tonight, I expect the likes of Alex Kuznetsov against David Goffin and Teymuraz Gabashvili's match with Mikhail Kukushkin to feature breaks and swings in the price, with Goffin & Kukushkin in particular excellent for swing trading.
In Buenos Aires, Christian Garin's match with Filippo Volandri has the potential to be a traders dream with both players much stronger on return than serve, and I feel Facundo Arguello can cause Leonardo Mayer some problems.
Arguello has a solid Challenger record on clay whilst Mayer's stats - despite his final last week in Chile - aren't that strong. He may be suffering from fatigue, but it's worth noting his record as heavy favourite is strong.
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