2nd March, 2018. Email: Tennistrades@gmail.com Choking in sport is something which is often discussed among fans and pundits alike - not to mention bettors and traders - and Tennis is no different. A quick check of social media on a daily basis shows players being called out for choking (among other things), but it's often difficult to assess whether a player has choked due to mental pressure, or simply due to inconsistencies in their skill-set. Sports traders shouldn't necessarily worry about the reasoning for a player choking, but are likely to be more interested in being able to predict it's likelihood of occurring in advance, or at least, being able to do so better than the general markets do. The Pressure Point daily spreadsheets that I provide enable users to do just this. Focusing on player performance (break lead retention and break deficit recovery) when players are a single break up or down at *4-2 or later in the set, they illustrate these player abilities for in excess of 100 players on each tour. Raw numbers from these are interesting enough - removing several players with small sample sizes, here are the worst ten performers on the ATP Tour for losing break leads from *4-2 or later in sets:-
These eleven players have performed considerably worse than the average player, losing leads in excess of 35% across all sets, compared to the Tour mean (for players covered in these sheets) of 22.72%, and generate something of a shortlist of players who have been extremely vulnerable in tight, pressure situations, when leading in sets. The best players for recovery at the business ends of sets also makes for interesting analysis:-
There's a real mix here of top players, and return-orientated clay-courters in the main, and again, these players boast numbers considerably better than the Tour mean (for players covered in these sheets) of 24.39%. The WTA data was also very interesting, with a number of players losing a single break lead more than 45% - much more than the Tour mean (for players covered in these sheets) of 33.13%:-
The names on this list probably wouldn't surprise many people - for the most part, they are not particularly highly ranked and many of these players also have mediocre all-surface service hold percentages as well. However, the list of players with greater than a 45% break deficit recovery percentage was something of a mixed bag, with numerous top players included, but also some lower-profile names as well:-
Hopefully this article has given you some insight into the trading strategies which can be devised from the Pressure Point spreadsheets, with all purchases including free regular updates. | A Selection of TennisRatings Products Please visit the TennisRatings Products links for a full overview of our fantastic Tennis Trading tools, and the TennisRatings Subscription Packages link to see our great value range of discounted subscription packages! Please check out our testimonials page! The TennisRatings Daily Trading Spreadsheets have never been more popular! To find out more on how these can dramatically improve your Tennis Trading, check out the YouTube Video we made. The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders). Subscriptions are available for 3 months:- The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set! INCLUDES FREE REGULAR UPDATES - THIS IS A ONE-TIME PURCHASE! |