September 2013 Archive


30th September Match Previews:-
Will Fognini be up for it today?

There's plenty of ATP and WTA action to get our teeth into today and here's my thoughts on a selection of the matches - with a few in Beijing catching my eye.

Fabio Fognini (above, pictured), has not shown himself in the best light recently, 'defaulting' himself with foot faults in one match and then retiring near defeat in another.  His lack of success in the hard/indoor part of the season is not a surprise, and it's arguable his mental state isn't - after a very successful clay court season he may be highly frustrated he can't transfer even some of that form to the hard courts.

Today he takes on Tommy Robredo with the Spaniard having won 4 from the 5 previous head to head encounters.  Originally this match was priced as Robredo as the slight underdog which was ridiculous - I made him 1.45 which now isn't far from the SP.

Projected holds are low for this - Fognini has not covered himself in glory on hard courts in the past year (or ever, really) winning 4 out of 14 matches and holding serve a truly awful 60.1% of the time.  Opposing either player's serve, particularly the Italian's, makes sense to me.

Another match in China that interests me is the clash between the over-rated Grigor Dimitrov and Roberto Bautista-Agut.  

I was surprised to see the Spaniard available at 3.00 yesterday with Dimitrov still not having a positive hard court record (11-11 in the past year) and his breaking of opponent stats are very poor (16.5% in those matches).  

Considering Bautista-Agut breaks 28.5% of the time on the surface yet holds serve just 6.4% less, I like the chances of the Spaniard here at a very nice price.

Given Dimitrov's projected hold is low, I like the line of opposing his serve when possible here.

The Ultimate In Play Spreadsheet (which will be updated for subscribers tomorrow) indicates some incredible stats on the Australian veteran, Lleyton Hewitt.

Hewitt, in 2013, at my latest update, has only won 39% of 1st sets, but 64% and 65% respectively in 2nd and 3rd sets.  These stats clearly show that he starts matches slowly before playing his best in adversity.

These are also backed up by him getting a set back on serve 46.9% of the time when a break down (well above the 35.8% top 100 average).  

However - his opponent Tommy Haas has solid stats when a break up - he only lets a break lead slip 20.7% of the time.  So opposing the German when a break up may not be too viable.

What I'm more looking at is laying Haas if he takes the first set.  He's won the first set more often than the other two sets this year and with Hewitt having a superb comeback record, a low risk lay of Haas if he takes the first set - probably at the 1.20-1.25 mark or so - looks a very good move to me.

There's one WTA match in Beijing that I'm particularly interested in and it's the clash between Sara Errani and Misaki Doi.

Clearly Errani deserves to be favourite but she looks a little short at around 1.27 given her current form.

Projected holds are both low for this with the world number 6 also low having held just 58.4% of the time on hard courts in the past year.  

A few speculative lays of the Italian's serve shouldn't break the bank, and may well yield some nice dividends.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

29th September Match Previews:-
9th time lucky for Benneteau?


We have two ATP Finals tomorrow and they promise to be very different affairs...

In BangkokTomas Berdych takes on Milos Raonic in what promises to be a tight match with very few breaks.

Berdych has the higher of two projected holds in the 90%'s, and boasts the better career finals record (15-12 to 4-5).

He also has much better break point stats, with his 'break point clutch score' according to the TennisRatings Daily Spreadsheet being 7.8 compared to the 
Canadian's 2.1.

Therefore, from a trading perspective I'm looking at backing Berdych when losing on serve - this match should be decided by a few key points and I'm much more keener to have my money on the Czech given the stats.

Overall Berdych is the worthy favourite at around 1.70 and I feel there's a little value on him.  

In the other ATP final in Kuala Lumpur, I feel that the oddsmakers have done a reasonable job in pricing Julien Benneteau (above, pictured) the 1.45 favourite against the phenomenon of the last fortnight, Joao Sousa.  

I don't think even Sousa's most ardent fan could have envisaged his results in the past two weeks and the hold/break stats indicate value on Benneteau at the above price.

However - when you then consider Benneteau's horrific ATP finals record - he's 0-8 in his career in them (including 4 as favourite) then we have to give a little more weight to Sousa's claims.

Projected holds are very low in this match and opposing either player's serve almost blindly works pretty well for me.  

There could be many breaks and swings in this...

There's 11 WTA matches in Beijing and I'm going to pick out a couple which appeal for trading purposes.

Klara Zakopalova's match with Laura Robson could easily be close with a lot of breaks in it.  Zakopalova's matches certainly tend to have those as a feature...

Robson starts at around 1.60 and for me that's a little short.  Neither player has particularly impressed me in recent weeks although I must say Robson is the lesser of two evils in that respect.  

Opposing either player on serve when viable appeals to me, unless it looks like they are somehow holding easily.

The second match I want to discuss is the clash between two qualifiers - Misaki Doi and Silvia Soler-Espinosa.

The Spaniard is currently marginal favourite although it wouldn't surprise me to see this switch before the match starts - it certainly should do.

Soler-Espinosa has an atrocious 3-9 hard court record in WTA matches in the past year and has a very low 50.9% projected hold for this match.  

Should Doi start anything above 1.80-1.85 then there's definitely value on the Japanese player, and considering this and Soler-Espinosa's low projected hold it seems that opposing Soler-Espinosa's serve is definitely the way forward here.

Finally Sabine Lisicki is playing her first match since the US Open last month and missed last week's Tokyo tournament with illness.  She seems very short to me at 1.30 against the qualifier, Chanelle Scheepers.  

In her last 50 matches priced between 1.20 and 1.49, the German has won just 29, with an atrocious return of investment at -19.5%.  She's done marginally better this year winning 14 of 20 matches in that price range, but she's dropped a set in 8 of those and opposing Lisicki at 1.30 pre-match with a view to greening up later on doesn't seem the worst idea in the world.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!



Friday, 27th September, 2013.

 

The website will be undergoing some maintenance work in the next few days, which will make it more visually appealing and streamlined.  The match previews will now appear on this page. 

 

 

Tuesday, 24th September, 2013.


Sorry there have been no match previews this week - my car went into the garage yesterday to get repaired and the Asian season is very tough for my work/life balance.  Usually by the time I've traded and then researched tomorrow's matches, sent out spreadsheets & tips it's getting late and I'm shattered - and aware I have to get up early in the morning!


I will try and do match previews whilst Asian tournaments are on - it should be easier when there are less matches per day in the second half of weeks but sadly my own trading and my subscribers have to take overall priority!


Monday, 23rd September, 2013.



22-29 September Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Gilles Simon, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Denis Istomin, Lukas Rosol, Joao Sousa, Michal Przysiezny, Dmitry Tursunov.

Last Week's Finalists:- Gilles Simon, Agnieszka Radwanska, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Yen-Hsun Lu.

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Ayumi Morita.

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Pablo Cuevas.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Anastasia Rodionova, Paula Ormaechea, Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor, Daria Gavrilova, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, Polona Hercog, Risa Ozaki, Casey Dellacqua.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

TBC



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Bangkok ATP: Average favourite success, service stats favour receiver slightly.

Kuala Lumpur ATP: High favourite success, service stats favour receiver strongly.

Tokyo WTA: High favourite success, service stats favour server slightly.




NEW ARTICLE ADDED! To view click on the link: Top Seeds in 250s


Todays Match Previews:-


Apologies, but no real update this morning - have got problems with my car and need to take it to the garage to get repaired.  


For the remaining games today:-


Value on:-


Halep

Vinci

Gimeno-Traver

Nieminen (if he appears reasonably fit)

Brands


Low Projected Hold:-


Torro-Flor

Haase

Sijsling


High Projected Hold:-


Halep

Kvitova

Vinci

Brands


Good luck in the markets!

 

Sunday, September 21st, 2013




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Metz ATP: Average service hold, marginally high favourite success.

St Petersburg ATP: Very low service hold, marginally high favourite success (although low in early rounds).

Guangzhou WTA: Slightly low service hold.

Seoul WTA: Average service hold.



NEW ARTICLE ADDED! To view click on the link: Top Seeds in 250s


Todays Match Previews (ATP Finals):-


We see the last of European action today for several weeks as the tour makes it's way to Asia.  The WTA tournament in Tokyo (56 player field) started this morning, and I will be hoping to add tournament previews for that and the ATP events in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur later on today.  I won't be focusing on the Ningbo WTA Challenger this week.


Ernests Gulbis strikes me as excellent value in the final at St. Petersburg today as he faces Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who probably can't work out how he's got this far.  In their careers, it's the Latvian who has much the better finals record (7-3 compared to 4-6) and this should stand him in further good stead today, although based on my projected hold analysis he probably doesn't need any more help...


Gulbis has held 84.7% on hard/indoor at ATP level in the past 12 months whereas GGL has a much lower hold, at 73.4%.  Gulbis has also broken more, 28.5% to 24.0%.  Overall this gives Gulbis a huge edge and leaves Garcia-Lopez with a very low projected hold, so it would appear from this that he will struggle to hold serve today.  Gulbis starts at around 1.40 and I make him more like 1.20 for this - so even the SP represents value.


I'm looking at opposing Garcia-Lopez's serve when realistically possible in this, and I'm also looking at another angle too.  Garcia-Lopez, according to my Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet stats, gives up a break lead 42.50% of the time (about 10% above average) and Gulbis recovers a break deficit to get the set back on serve 43.18% of the time (about 8% above average).  These stats indicate that laying Garcia-Lopez when a break up would represent positive expected value, and coupled with his low projected hold would also make this a great strategy for this match.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga certainly hasn't pulled up any trees this week in his first tournament since Wimbledon, and I think stumbling through his opponents would be a fair description.  Gilles Simon's route to the final looks much more comfortable and that's probably why Tsonga is available at a seemingly generous price of around 1.50 for the Metz final.


Based on projected holds the value is on the higher ranked Frenchman as favourite, and he should be able to win more key points based on my break point analysis.  However, because Tsonga has only broken 21.0% on hard/indoor in the past 12 months, this means Simon's projected hold isn't as low as it often is - so opposing his serve isn't as mandatory as many may think here.  


However, he's given up a break lead 42.70% of the time, and with Tsonga getting a break deficit back 41.94%, this would give us a fairly decent opportunity to lay Simon a break up, as with Garcia-Lopez above.  Having said that, it wouldn't be as confident a play as laying Garcia-Lopez, due to GGL having a significantly lower projected hold than Simon.


Check back later for more updates today, hopefully next week's tournament previews will be added tonight and possibly the start of the resources which I've been promising for a little while now...


Good luck in the markets! 



Friday, September 19th, 2013




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Metz ATP: Average service hold, marginally high favourite success.

St Petersburg ATP: Very low service hold, marginally high favourite success (although low in early rounds).

Guangzhou WTA: Slightly low service hold.

Seoul WTA: Average service hold.



NEW ARTICLE ADDED! To view click on the link: Top Seeds in 250s


Todays Match Previews:-


Thankfully I'm now recovered from my migraine yesterday and back to full fitness!


I didn't see any of the matches but was surprised with how some of the matches went - particularly the 3 women's matches where the favourite took the first set 6-1 and lost (Jabeur, Puig & Robson) and the strange situation that sees Joao Sousa getting to an ATP quarter final on indoor hard!  Although to be fair I understand Stakhovsky was ill yesterday.  As for Fabio Fognini, his behaviour is getting less surprising...


It's now about 7am and the Jang v Arruabarena match has been underway for 20 minutes - enough for Arruabarena to lead 5-0 in the first set - perhaps Jang will get the pasting I expected of her yesterday.


I'll probably start trading the next matches in Asia this morning and will start the previews on those matches.


In Seoul, Francesca Schiavone leads Kimiko Date Krumm 3-0 in head to head matches and not dropping a set in those, with all being since 2010.  However it's worth noting that the Italian was in the top 10 or 20 on all those occasions and with her currently ranked at 56 I feel it dilutes the relevance of those a little.  


Actually, Date Krumm's hard court record is better over the past 12 months, holding 57.7% to 57.1% and breaking 44.5% to 33.6%, so I feel she represents some value at around 2.56 for this.  Projected holds are a little low with Schiavone - due to the return stats of Date Krumm - particularly low.  I'm going to look to oppose her serve to start with in this and assess where that takes me.  


The final match in South Korea sees Irina Begu take on Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova with Pav starting at what seems to me a very short 1.26.  Projected holds are a lot closer than the odds suggest and are a little higher than WTA mean.  A lay of the Russian pre-match with a view to backing at a bigger price later on can definitely be considered.


Over in China, the two semi-finals in Guangzhou were probably predicted by nobody!  However they do give us some trading opportunities...


The first match between Vania King and Jie Zheng is interesting - perhaps this week signals some form of return to form for King, who has struggled for the majority of the last 12 months.  She's definitely better than her 6-12 WTA record in that time in my opinion.  I find Zheng generally a little over-rated and I think that's the case to some extent today, she's available at 1.53 currently and I make her more like 1.70 for this.  Projected holds are fairly average with King's being a bit below the WTA mean.  I want to oppose Zheng in this but have a fairly open mind - I'll be looking to use some triggers to trade either player's serve selectively if the right situations come about.  If there are some early breaks both players may struggle to consistently hold.


The second semi-final should definitely see breaks, as Shuai Zhang faces Yvonne Meusburger.  The Austrian veteran has a very weak serve but a much better return game and her matches generally feature a lot of breaks.  In 19 WTA hard court matches in the last 2 years, Zhang has held just 55.2% herself although I note that her stats have improved in the past 12 months and she's held 65.2% from a smaller 10 match sample.  Either way I feel this match should have the potential for swings and laying either server almost blindly can be considered.  Zhang starts at 1.90 for this match in her home country and that's not too far from my pricing either. 


ATP Action starts at 10am in St. Petersburg and I make Lukas Rosol vulnerable for an upset at 1.75 against Mikhail Przysiezny.  Rosol has been battling on with a hip problem in recent months and has had a shocking run of form.  I feel he is slightly flattered to be here after Ricardas Berankis didn't take his opportunities in the first round and he got a lucky 2nd round draw against Karen Khachanov yesterday.  He certainly didn't dominate his unranked opponent and I think the market has forgotten his previous woes with his run here.  I actually make the Pole marginal favourite for this and a Przysiezny win wouldn't surprise me at all.  Projected holds are a little below ATP average here so I will look to oppose Rosol's serve if I feel it's viable.


Projected holds are also low in the match between Roberto Bautista-Agut and Ernests Gulbis.  The Spaniard often struggles on serve but manages more than average breaks of his opponent and whilst Gulbis is justifiably favourite at 1.40, he loses concentration enough for Bautista-Agut to have a chance of forcing this price higher, at least.  We saw that with the very limited Jurgen Zopp taking the second set from the Latvian yesterday.  I'm willing to oppose either player's serve in this should the situations present themselves.


I'm a little torn how to assess the match between Denis Istomin and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez having watched both their previous round matches.  Actually neither impressed me and both looked vulnerable on serve.  Istomin managed to get himself out of trouble many times against Andrey Golubev and against a slightly better or more clinical player would have found himself dumped out of the tournament.  Garcia-Lopez got past Janko Tipsarevic despite looking like the worse player and he also struggled on serve.  Stats give Istomin the edge - both players have broken 21.3% on hard/indoor in the past year but Istomin has held much more (83.6% to 71.6%) so the value on that basis would be with the Uzbek at around 1.90.  I'm going to start the match with a view to taking on Garcia-Lopez's serve and see where that takes me.


Finally in Russia, Joao Sousa himself surely will be struggling to understand how he has made a quarter final on Indoor Hard after playing 9 sets in the Davis Cup at the weekend and it's hard to see Dmitry Tursunov being his latest victim.  The Russian is 1.29 favourite here and that seems fair - although with this run and victory over Jarkko Nieminen at the US Open we may get an opportunity to oppose Sousa against a mediocre opponent much more suited to the surface in the coming weeks.  The Portuguese clay courter has a very low projected hold for this so should he get in front I will look to start opposing his serve here.


Over in Metz, I feel Nicolas Mahut can get the better of Benjamin Becker at odds of 1.80.  I feel Becker is another that has had a lucky draw to get this far - a barely half-fit Benoit Paire and youngster Albano Olivetti certainly don't represent the who's who of the tennis world - and whilst he's capable on this surface he still 6-14 on hard/indoor in the past 12 months at ATP level.  Projected holds are high and this is especially the case for the Frenchman - and with a high break point clutch score as well he should be pretty solid at the key points.  Backing Mahut when losing on serve at points recommended in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook seems a solid plan.


Tobias Kamke managed to turn things around in his second round match after a horror start against the qualifier, Marton Fucsovics (thankfully for me) but will get destroyed by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if he plays to a similar level today.  Tsonga starts at 1.17 and that seems about right - Kamke has a low projected hold and should he take the lead in this but Tsonga looks fit, I will look to oppose Kamke's serve.


Carlos Berlocq benefited from Philipp Kohlschreiber's retirement last night in the third set and today takes on Florian Mayer.  The odds making Mayer 1.50 favourite don't seem too wrong, and in a match that could feature some breaks Berlocq has a low projected hold.  Opposing his serve selectively makes sense to me.


Finally, I make Gilles Simon a little value on home soil at 1.80 against Sam Querrey.  I thought Simon would have more problems with Kenny De Schepper yesterday, with the big server pretty effective indoors.  Projected holds are around average - I want to lay Querrey at points and at the end of sets seems to be the time to do it.  According to the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheetthe American holds 83.2% in 2013 but a lower 80.1% in the latter stages of the set.  He also gives a break lead up to go back on serve 39.5% which is above the ATP average of 32.5% - and very poor for big servers.  This indicates a real lack of mental strength in the business end of matches and would reduce his projected hold to an opposable 73.2% in the later stages of sets - definitely something to consider against a strong returner in Simon.


Trade of the Day:-


Lay Sam Querrey when a break up against Gilles Simon (green up if Simon breaks back, red out at the end of the set).


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Thursday, September 19th, 2013




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Metz ATP: Average service hold, marginally high favourite success.

St Petersburg ATP: Very low service hold, marginally high favourite success (although low in early rounds).

Guangzhou WTA: Slightly low service hold.

Seoul WTA: Average service hold.



NEW ARTICLE ADDED! To view click on the link: Top Seeds in 250s


Todays Match Previews:-


I'm currently struggling with the worst migraine of my life (and I get a few)!  I'm not sure when I will be able to update the website today, hopefully I will do so later if I'm feeling better.


Good luck in the markets!


Wednesday, September 18th, 2013




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Metz ATP: Average service hold, marginally high favourite success.

St Petersburg ATP: Very low service hold, marginally high favourite success (although low in early rounds).

Guangzhou WTA: Slightly low service hold.

Seoul WTA: Average service hold.



NEW ARTICLE ADDED! To view click on the link: Top Seeds in 250s


Todays Match Previews:-


As I've missed the first couple of days in the market having just got back from America I've been playing catch-up to an extent.  On that basis there won't be any Player Watchlist this week or Tournament Previews but of course they will resume next week.  I didn't manage to finish my new article last night as severe jet lag set in but hopefully I will be able to get that up soon.  However from today I will add a new feature to the daily previews which is the 'Trades of the Day' as quite a few readers have contacted me asking if I can provide this.  It would be great to hear any further suggestions from readers and I'm always happy to receive feedback.


On a fitness/condition front, it's worth noting that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing his first match since the end of June when he retired against Ernests Gulbis with a knee injury at Wimbledon.  Lukas Rosol is still deferring his hip surgery and had a terrible defeat to Horacio Zeballos in the Davis Cup (admittedly in a dead rubber) at the weekend.  Benoit Paire gave a very revealing interview where he described the extent of his back injury after his defeat to Alex Bogomolov Jr at Wimbledon.  He played a small exhibition in France last week where WR 488 Constant Lestienne took a set from him before he lost to eventual winner Edouard Roger-Vasselin.  ERV beat Jeremy Chardy in the final.


From the Davis Cup, Mikhail Przysiezny retired against Nick Kyrgios with a stomach complaint and Joao Sousa's 5 set epic (including an 11-9 final set) defeat against the very limited Radu Albot won't do him any favours today either.  


There are some matches today (often low quality affairs) in both Metz and St Petersburg which on paper look superb for trading.  Particularly the matches in Russia should generally have more breaks than ATP average and opposing servers there look a very solid play.


As I mentioned earlier, Lukas Rosol has been in horrific form due to injury issues and today he faces Ricardas Berankis in the early match in Russia.  The Lithuanian is a solid 1.65 favourite here and I think that's pretty fair.  He edges two projected holds which are lower than average and I like opposing Rosol's serve, particularly in the latter stages of a set.  My stats from The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet indicate that he will hold less than average in this scenario.  


I can't see Ernests Gulbis having many problems against the WR 949 wild card Michail Elgin but his price of 1.07 illustrates that.  Elgin isn't even at Challenger level having played just 5 main draw matches on that tour in the past 2 years.  Recently he has struggled to even get through qualifiers into Challengers.  He has a solitary match at ATP level in the last 12 months with a previous wild card here and he was comfortably defeated by the surprise champion Martin Klizan.  Elgin's projected hold is very low and I'd be surprised if he could hold serve much more than he was broken here.  Should he get an unlikely lead I will look to get on Gulbis at a bigger price.


Horacio Zeballos is lost away from clay and doesn't have a great record playing in Europe either.  His opponent Konstantin Kravchuk is limited himself but has a reasonably solid 55% winrate on hard/indoor in Challengers in the past 12 months.  Zeballos is 1-6 in main draw ATP matches in the past 2 years on the surface and in a 'pick em' match where both players are around evens, I feel the Russian qualifier is the value here.  Zeballos has a low projected hold and I will be opposing his serve when possible today.


In a match between two clay courters, I like the chances of Paolo Lorenzi to get past Joao Sousa, who I feel is a false favourite today.  That's probably due to his win over Jarkko Nieminen in the US Open but Sousa, as I pointed out above, may not be the freshest after playing 9 sets in 2 matches in Macedonia at the weekend.  Projected holds are both very low but I particularly like laying Sousa's serve pretty much blindly here.  According to my stats in the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet, I'm also expecting Sousa to struggle to hold early in sets so a high stake lay of his serve in his initial couple of service games is going to be my starting point.  Interestingly, for two players with weak serves, my stats show that the chances of either player giving up a break lead in a set is below average.


Mikhail Przysiezny retired 4-1 down in a dead rubber against Nick Kyrgios in the Davis Cup at the weekend with a stomach problem and it's unreasonable to assume he will be fully fit against Albert Ramos today.  Furthermore, the Pole has a horrific 15-35 record in his last 50 matches against left handers with a shocking -45% ROI in that sample.  Whilst Ramos would much prefer this match to be on clay, I feel he will have too much for the limited Pryzsiezny, who has a 1-9 record on hard/indoor at ATP level in the last 3 years.  Ramos is available at 1.62 for this currently and I like that price a lot.  I'll be looking to lay Przysiezny's serve when I can in this as his projected hold is low.


I can see there being breaks in the match between Janko Tipsarevic and Roberto Bautista-Agut.  Both players have very low projected holds and I feel opposing either player's serve will be generally viable.  I also like opposing Tipsarevic when a break up in this as Bautista-Agut has broken back from a break down 44.2% this year.  Tipsarevic has given a break lead up 35% and both of those are above average.  The Serb is 1.65 favourite and I think that's about right, although it wouldn't hugely surprise me if Bautista-Agut traded as favourite in this, if not actually win.  Tipsarevic may just win enough key points to edge this.


I feel Fernando Verdasco is a little short against Sergiy Stakhovsky at 1.48 today, but that's nothing new with the over-rated Spaniard.  Projected holds are again fairly low in this - if I can I will look to oppose Verdasco's serve with selected triggers.


Somehow Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has a 5-1 head to head lead over Mikhail Youzhny with the Russian's sole win coming at this venue last year.  He's been in impressive form and justifies the starting odds of 1.33.  Projected holds are both low with GGL's very low.  I'll be looking to oppose his serve when I can.


I'll just run through today's matches in France quickly now as the 10am games are about to start.


It wouldn't surprise me if Jiri Vesely's match with Carlos Berlocq was a bit of a mugfest.  I can see both players getting broken and struggling to serve out sets.  The Argentine is 1.60 favourite and for me that's short, although I have a very limited sample on Vesely on hard/indoor courts.  Both players are much happier on clay.


Projected holds are high between Nicolas Mahut and Leonardo Mayer.  I feel there is some value on Mahut in his home country but nothing exceptional.  I am looking at backing Mahut in-game when losing on serve at selected points illustrated in the TennisRatings Handbook.  


Marton Fucsovics shocked Jeremy Chardy in the first round but is justifiably underdog against Tobias Kamke, who starts at 1.35.  Both projected holds are fairly low with Fucsovics especially so.   However, Kamke gives up a break lead 43.5% of the time which is well above the 32.5% ATP average this year so should Kamke get a break up, a low risk lay of the German should be pretty viable.


Paul-Henri Mathieu gained a rare win yesterday against the fellow out of form Igor Sijsling but faces a tougher opponent today in Sam Querrey.  The American starts at 1.65 and that's probably a little generous.  Projected holds are above average but it's worth noting my stats have both players much more likely to hold serve earlier in sets than later in sets, pretty much illustrating that both are chokers later on in a set.


Jo Wilfried Tsonga may be pretty rusty today but that's factored into a starting price of 1.32 against Edouard Roger-Vasselin.  Roger-Vasselin gives up a break lead 48.9% of the time, well above the 32.5% average, with Tsonga getting a break deficit back a decent 41.9% of the time too.  This line of backing Tsonga when a break down would usually suit here based on these stats but I can't help feeling that it would also be going against potential market panic in case Tsonga shows signs of still being injured.  I'm not sure how involved I will get here.


Finally another injured Frenchman plays in the last match in Metz as Benoit Paire takes on Benjamin Becker.  Paire is 1.54 favourite which again takes into account his issues.  Becker's projected hold is very low and also has given up a break lead an incredible 57.1% this year.  With Paire getting a break deficit back 43.7% of the time this puts us in a similar category to the Tsonga match where backing the injured player a break down makes statistical sense but may go against us.  I'll probably stick to opposing the Becker serve when I can here.


Trades of the Day:-


Lay Horacio Zeballos serve at the start and end of sets

Lay Jiri Vesely when a break up against Carlos Berlocq

Lay Tobias Kamke when a break up against Marton Fucsovics

Lay Paul-Henri Mathieu when a break up against Sam Querrey

Lay Sergiy Stakhovsky's serve late in sets against Fernando Verdasco

Lay Joao Sousa's serve at the start of sets against Paolo Lorenzi


Good luck in the markets!



Tuesday, September 17th, 2013.


I've just got back from America and I'm ready and refreshed to attack the markets!  


The TennisRatings Spreadsheet and TennisRatings Tips services resume tomorrow (Wednesday 18th September) so if you were waiting for my return to purchase a subscription for either of those, or to purchase the TennisRatings Trading Handbook or new The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet then I can process that immediately ready for tomorrow's matches.


The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet will have it's first update applied on the 1st October (stats update for all players in all scenarios).  Anyone that purchases the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet between 17th September and 30th September will receive this update free of charge!


Check back later when I hope to add a new page on the website with some great tournament stats for each venue.  This will be a superb free resource for traders indicating which venues have better chances for having players trading at low odds in-play then trading a lot higher later on in the match.  


Good luck in the markets!



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