Match of The Day Trading Previews - January 2018


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Friday, 4th January, 2018.

Each day, I'll be posting a poll on Twitter requesting votes to choose a match to write a trading preview for - as voted on Twitter today, this preview is for Dominic Thiem v Gael Monfils in the semi finals of ATP Doha.

The Data:-


ATP Doha

Dominic Thiem

Gael Monfils

430pm UK time Start



Current Pinnacle Price

1.54

2.70

TennisRatings Model Price

1.61

2.64

Service Hold %

82.9

80.1

Break Opponent %

24.8

26.7

Combined %

107.7

106.8

Projected Hold %

77.2

76.3

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

36.2

36.0

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

38.5

42.1

Combined Score Set 1

78.3

74.5

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

28.3

32.4

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

39.5

41.2

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

69.5

71.9

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 1st set

6.1

15.8

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 1st set

19.2

47.1

Combined Pressure Point Score Set 1

53.2

35.0

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

16.3

35.0

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

18.5

38.5

Combined Pressure Point Score Sets 2&3

54.8

53.5


* Model price, Projected Hold % and much more available for every ATP & WTA match in the daily betting/trading spreadsheets.
* Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery data available (split by set) in the lead loss/recovery data spreadsheets.
* Pressure Point Data (Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery from *4-2 later in each set) available in the pressure point data spreadsheets.


I was just about to write the text part of this preview and then saw Thiem has withdrawn - I've left the data up above, in case anyone is interested...

Thursday, 4th January, 2018.

Each day, I'll be posting a poll on Twitter requesting votes to choose a match to write a trading preview for - as voted on Twitter today, this preview is for Andrey Rublev v Borna Coric in the quarter finals of ATP Doha.

The Data:-

ATP Doha

Andrey Rublev

Borna Coric

2pm UK time Start



Current Pinnacle Price

2.12

1.83

TennisRatings Model Price

2.47

1.68

Service Hold %

74.6

82.6

Break Opponent %

22.9

20.1

Combined %

97.5

102.7

Projected Hold %

75.5

80.7

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

37.5

43.3

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

47.1

30.8

Combined Score Set 1

68.3

90.4

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

30.8

20.0

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

28.6

43.8

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

74.6

48.6

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 1st set

33.3

10.5

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 1st set

40.0

21.1

Combined Pressure Point Score Set 1

54.4

50.5

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

25.0

19.1

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

33.3

40.9

Combined Pressure Point Score Sets 2&3

65.9

52.4


* Model price, Projected Hold % and much more available for every ATP & WTA match in the daily betting/trading spreadsheets.
* Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery data available (split by set) in the lead loss/recovery data spreadsheets.
* Pressure Point Data (Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery from *4-2 later in each set) available in the pressure point data spreadsheets.


Two young guns of the ATP Tour take to the court at 2pm in Doha, with Borna Coric a slight favourite at 1.83, to get the better of fellow prospect Andrey Rublev.

My model priced the more experienced Coric up at 1.68, so there's some pre match value on the Croatian talent, reflected in the projected hold percentages which give him an edge of around 5%.

Indeed, Rublev's projected hold percentage of 75.5% is on the low side for an ATP hard court match, although not quite 5% below the surface mean.  However, given this, and the pre-match value on Coric, it's logical to look at spots to oppose Rublev in-running, if possible.

Probably the best spot for this looks to be if Rublev is trading at a low price when on the verge of victory (set and break and *4-2 or later up, or the same in set 3), because Coric's 40.9% pressure point recovery stat in sets 2&3 combined is elite level.  He certainly seems to play his best tennis when on the verge of defeat, as evidenced by this and also his solid break deficit data in sets 2 & 3 at all stages of sets.

This spot gives us an excellent low risk/high reward trading opportunity with the potential for a huge swing, and is the main advance spot that I've identified as worth looking at here.  



Wednesday, 3rd January, 2018.

Each day, I'll be posting a poll on Twitter requesting votes to choose a match to write a trading preview for - as voted on Twitter today, this preview is for Ana Konjuh vs Elina Svitolina in the second round of WTA Brisbane.

The Data:-

ATP Brisbane

Ana Konjuh

Elina Svitolina

3am UK time Start



Current Pinnacle Price

3.83

1.31

TennisRatings Model Price

3.94

1.34

Service Hold %

66.7

72.6

Break Opponent %

34.7

47.2

Combined %

101.4

119.8

Projected Hold %

59.8

78.2

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

59.4

53.1

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

55.6

62.2

Combined Score Set 1

121.6

108.7

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

32.3

43.4

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

46.4

63.6

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

95.9

89.8

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 1st set

19.2

32.2

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 1st set

43.5

28.0

Combined Pressure Point Score Set 1

47.2

75.7

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

34.4

35.4

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

26.3

44.8

Combined Pressure Point Score Sets 2&3

79.2

61.7


* Model price, Projected Hold % and much more available for every ATP & WTA match in the daily betting/trading spreadsheets.
* Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery data available (split by set) in the lead loss/recovery data spreadsheets.
* Pressure Point Data (Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery from *4-2 later in each set) available in the pressure point data spreadsheets.


At the rather unsociable hour of 3am UK time (I won't be up!), Ana Konjuh takes on Elina Svitolina in Brisbane, with Svitolina a heavy favourite to take her place in the quarter final in the first event of the season.

Pricing a touch higher than 1.30 seems completely reasonable given the big difference in the hold/break data, which shows Svitolina to be considerably better on return than Konjuh, although it is worth noting that Konjuh has a pretty solid record in quicker conditions, which are prevalent in Brisbane as I've already mentioned throughout the week.

This translates into a pre-match projected hold percentage for Svitolina well in excess of the WTA surface mean, with Konjuh's numbers around 4% below average.  With this in mind, we can probably look at some spots to oppose Konjuh if she leads, but ideally there would be some other outstanding metrics to try and give us more confidence to take this position.

Several do stand out - Konjuh's very high combined score (set 1) of 121.6 from the lead loss/recovery sheets, factoring in that Svitolina is excellent at recovering break deficits in the opening set, and also Konjuh's combined pressure point score in sets 2 & 3 (if she leads by a set & break or a break in the final set) is also very high at 79.2 - again, Svitolina is excellent in these type of spots at turning around losing positions.

Considering this, we can look to identify several advance spots where there is some trading potential.  Ideally, Svitolina will have put some reasonable pressure on return as well, but laying Konjuh a break up in the opening set, or when *4-2 up or later when a set and break up or a break up in the final set look pretty viable positions.


Tuesday, 2nd January, 2018.

Each day, I'll be posting a poll on Twitter requesting votes to choose a match to write a trading preview for - as voted on Twitter today, this preview is for Damir Dzumhur vs Denis Istomin as ATP Brisbane concludes first round action.

The Data:-

ATP Brisbane

Damir Dzumhur

Denis Istomin

6am UK time Start



Current Pinnacle Price

1.57

2.55

TennisRatings Model Price

1.70

2.43

Service Hold %

72.5

79.1

Break Opponent %

31.2

20.2

Combined %

103.7

99.3

Projected Hold %

76.0

71.6

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

45.5

26.7

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

41.4

35.0

Combined Score Set 1

80.5

68.1

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

52.5

38.5

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

48.3

34.8

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

87.3

86.8

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 1st set

19.2

9.1

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 1st set

30.0

22.2

Combined Pressure Point Score Set 1

41.4

39.1

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

23.3

12.5

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

33.3

25.0

Combined Pressure Point Score Sets 2&3

48.3

45.8


* Model price, Projected Hold % and much more available for every ATP & WTA match in the daily betting/trading spreadsheets.
* Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery data available (split by set) in the lead loss/recovery data spreadsheets.
* Pressure Point Data (Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery from *4-2 later in each set) available in the pressure point data spreadsheets.


Firstly - apologies for no preview yesterday, the New Year festivities and other commitments made things a little difficult!  I'd like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Happy New Year, and hopefully a prosperous one as well...

Starting at 6am tomorrow is an intriguing match between Damir Dzumhur and Denis Istomin, with the Uzbek likely to enjoy the quicker conditions in Brisbane a little more than Dzumhur.  However, Dzumhur should not be underestimated - he made great strides last season and starts the match as favourite, albeit a touch on the short side at just shy of 1.60.

Primarily this is due to Dzumhur's considerably better return game and even in these anticipated quick conditions, projected hold percentages are a little low, below the 79.3% ATP 12 month hard court mean.  I'm not expecting these players to be able to hold more than average, and there's a possible opportunity to oppose Istomin in-running if he leads.

The spot I like to do this is if he leads by a set and break, or a break in the final set, with the dominant lead 
combined score 
(needing just to hold service games to win the match) on Istomin being considerably above average, as well as the mentioned low projected hold percentage - although he's much better in pressure points, when leading *4-2 or later in sets, so it would probably be an early part of set entry ideally.

Obviously, the match may not develop to generate this entry point, but it looks the best advance option that I can identify.  Ideally, I'd like to see a reasonable amount of pressure from Dzumhur on return as well prior to this point, but it looks a decent potential spot on a day where there are an absolute ton of matches...


Sunday, 31st December, 2017.

Each day, I'll be posting a poll on Twitter requesting votes to choose a match to write a trading preview for - as voted on Twitter today, this preview is for Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Diego Schwartzman as the ATP Tour kicks off the 2018 season in Brisbane.

The Data:-

ATP Brisbane

Alexandr Dolgopolov

Diego Schwartzman

6am UK time Start



Current Pinnacle Price

2.18

1.75

TennisRatings Model Price

2.61

1.62

Service Hold %

79.3

76.1

Break Opponent %

19.9

30.8

Combined %

99.2

106.9

Projected Hold %

72.2

79.9

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

42.3

35.1

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

29.4

58.6

Combined Score Set 1

100.9

64.5

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

31.8

34.4

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

15.8

57.1

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

88.9

50.2

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 1st set

38.1

29.6

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 1st set

11.1

52.2

Combined Pressure Point Score Set 1

90.3

40.7

Loses single break lead at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

23.5

28.0

Recovers single break deficit at *4-2 or later 2nd/3rd set (dominant lead)

0.0

40.0

Combined Pressure Point Score Sets 2&3

63.5

28.0


* Model price, Projected Hold % and much more available for every ATP & WTA match in the daily betting/trading spreadsheets.
* Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery data available (split by set) in the lead loss/recovery data spreadsheets.
* Pressure Point Data (Break Lead Loss & Break Deficit Recovery from *4-2 later in each set) available in the pressure point data spreadsheets.

One for the early morning traders is the match, starting at 6am UK time, between Alexandr Dolgopolov and Diego Schwartzman, played in traditionally quick conditions in Brisbane.

My model likes Schwartzman, here, making him 1.62 with the current Pinnacle line being 1.75, so there is some small value on the Argentine, largely because his return data is so much better than Dolgopolov's.  To be honest, this isn't entirely a surprise - my model has often opposed Dolgopolov previously, especially on hard courts, given his combined hold/break percentage in the last 12 months is sub 100%.

Despite the quick conditions, I'm not expecting more holds than average in this particular match-up - again largely due to the excellent Schwartzman return game - and Dolgopolov's 72.2% projected hold percentage is almost 8% below the ATP mean.  This marks him out as having potential to be a relatively vulnerable front-runner, and this is also rubber-stamped by the data from the lead loss/recovery spreadsheet which shows the Ukrainian to have a set 1 combined score of 100.9 and sets 2&3 combined score 88.9.  To put this into context, on the ATP Tour, I mark a vulnerable front-runner to have a combined score in excess of 75, with an extremely vulnerable player in excess of 85.

Furthermore, the new pressure point data spreadsheets show Dolgopolov likely to be weaker than average when leading by a single break from *4-2 or later in sets, particularly in set 1 (pressure point combined score of 90.2), although sets 2&3 combined is also high at 63.5.  Again, to put this into context, a combined score over 55 in the ATP marks a player to be vulnerable in this spot - Dolgopolov is much higher.

Another interesting in-play dynamic here is Dolgopolov's awful break deficit recovery data, showing him to as good as give up on sets when losing in them.  It's relatively unsurprising that his results have generally failed to match his undoubted ability throughout his career.

To summarise, with slight pre-match value on Schwartzman, and all data showing Dolgopolov to be a vulnerable front-runner, advance trading strategies are likely to focus around opposing Dolgopolov when in front by a break in the match - particularly in set 1, but also in the duration of the match.  Should Dolgopolov be in a position where he is close to winning sets, it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him buckle under the likely pressure Schwartzman will put on his serve.

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