Match of the Day Trading Previews - February 2016


February 18th, 2016:-

Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs Nicolas Almagro (ESP), 2nd round, ATP Rio de Janeiro, 20:30pm UK time.

The Data:-


Nadal

Almagro




Current Pinnacle Price

1.21

5.35

TennisRatings Model Price

1.12

9.34

Service Hold %

80.9

82.9

Break Opponent %

40.0

19.6

Combined %

120.9

102.5

Projected Hold %

79.0

60.6

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

31.7

20.0

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

48.0

21.4

Combined Score Set 1

53.1

68.0

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

28.1

41.2

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

37.5

25.0

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

53.1

78.7


* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets - to get a free trial day please sign up for updates.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

This is really fascinating second round tie in Rio de Janeiro between Rafael Nadal, and his 'bunny', Nicolas Almagro.

Nadal has been beaten just once in 14 matches by his countryman, in Barcelona in 2014, and since then has won all seven sets in three routine victories.

Rafael Nadal has beaten Nicolas Almagro 13 out of 14 times...

However, with Almagro 'in form' after reaching the final of Buenos Aires last week, and there being continued doubts over Nadal's level, Almagro has received market support, with Nadal opening at 1.16 and currently trading at 1.21.

Having said this, my model (which factors in dominant head to head leads) priced Nadal at 1.12 so it reflects value on the better Spaniard for tonight's match.  Bearing this in mind, we need to look at strategies to oppose Almagro in-play.

Immediately we can see from the data above that Almagro's projected hold is low at 60.6%.  This is understandable on a slow clay court, with Nadal's superb return game breaking opponents 40.0% on clay in the last 12 months.  What it does mean is that Nadal should enjoy plenty of pressure on the Almagro serve.

Looking at the combined score for Lead Loss/Deficit Recovery, we can see that Almagro's first set score is 68.0 and 78.7 in dominant (set and break/break lead in set 3) scenarios.  This is quite the opposite to the ATP Tour means, which have more break leads lost in set 1 (where dominance is less exhibited) than in dominant positions in sets 2&3.  We can see that Almagro's lead loss in dominant spots is high at 41.2%, and this would indicate - particularly as his overall serve numbers are decent - that he struggles when leading, and is more susceptible than average to trading much higher from a low price.

This is perfect for our strategy.  In conjunction with a low projected hold percentage, this high combined score in dominant leading positions for Almagro highlights laying him at a set and break up, or a break up in the final set.  This would generate a much higher chance than average for him to trade higher in these positions.

Recommendations:-

1) Lay Almagro a set and break up in set two, or a break up in set three.
2) Lay Almagro serving for the match from set and break or break up in final set situations. 
3) Lay Almagro in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  


February 16th, 2016:-

Damir Dzumhur (BIH) vs Ricardas Berankis (LTH), 1st round, ATP Delray Beach, 17:45pm UK time.

The Data:-


Dzumhur

Berankis




Current Pinnacle Price

2.82

1.51

TennisRatings Model Price

3.70

1.37

Service Hold %

61.7

77.5

Break Opponent %

26.7

20.6

Combined %

88.4

98.1

Projected Hold %

59.3

66.0

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

14.3

42.9

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

42.9

33.3

Combined Score Set 1

47.6

85.8

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

33.3

38.5

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

30.0

61.1

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

94.4

68.5


* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets - to get a free trial day please sign up for updates.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

Today's Match of the Day comes from Florida as for the second week running, Ricardas Berankis takes on Damir Dzumhur.  

On the Indoor Hard courts in Memphis last week, Berankis got the better of the Bosnian clay-courter with a fairly routine 6-3 6-4 win priced 1.42 and the markets have seen fit to price him even bigger at a current 1.51 for this clash a week later on an outdoor hard court.  

Ricardas Berankis got past Damir Dzumhur easily in Memphis last week...

This to some extent is logical - Berankis' stats indoors are better than outdoors - but considering that there was strong value last week on this 1.42, it's difficult to make a case that 1.51 isn't also some value this week.

My model agreed, pricing the Lithuanian at 1.37 and we can take this into account when formulating our trading plan.  It is very rare that pre-match value does not translate into some in-play value as well, so our strategy should focus on favouring Berankis.

Looking at this angle, we can see that Dzumhur has a very low pre-match projected hold percentage for this match at 59.3% and I'm expecting his mediocre serve to have a large degree of pressure on it tonight. Furthermore, we can see that his combined score in dominant leads is very high at 94.4 (ATP mean is around 60) so it is clear that he should be much more vulnerable than average in dominant leading positions.  This is mainly due to the superb recovery stats from Berankis from dominant losing spots (61.1% recovered) - the Lithuanian, whilst having some choking tendencies himself, is without doubt a superb fighter.

On this basis the following trading entry points look solid...

Recommendations:-

1) Lay Dzumhur a set and break up in set two, or a break up in set three.
2) Lay Dzumhur serving for the match from set and break or break up in final set situations. 
3) Lay Dzumhur in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  



February 12th, 2016:-

Gael Monfils (FRA) vs Alexander Zverev (GER), Quarter Final, ATP Rotterdam, 8:00pm UK time.

The Data:-


Monfils

Zverev




Current Pinnacle Price

1.31

3.95

TennisRatings Model Price

1.35

3.86

Service Hold %

86.7

78.7

Break Opponent %

24.9

17.8

Combined %

111.6

96.5

Projected Hold %

88.7

73.6

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

37.9

53.9

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

36.8

42.9

Combined Score Set 1

80.8

90.7

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

22.2

29.4

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

31.3

45.0

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

67.2

60.7


* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets - to get a free trial day please sign up for updates.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

Yesterday's match between Zverev and Gilles Simon was an arduous three-set battle with the young German edging the more experienced Frenchman in a third-set tiebreak.  Followers of the recommendations in these previews would have profited from laying Zverev a set and break up, with Simon's durability again in evidence last night.

Alexander Zverev edged past Gilles Simon last night, but gave up a set and break lead in the process...

There's also some trading potential tonight in Zverev's match against Gael Monfils.  Both players are unlikely to be in peak physical condition - Monfils looked to have several ailments against Edouard Roger-Vasselin (back and finger) last week in Montpellier, whilst Zverev now is playing his seventh match since the start of last week (15 sets in six matches) and is likely to be feeling at least a little tired.

Pre-match prices are about right, making Monfils a heavy favourite at a touch over 1.30, and we can see from the data above that he enjoys a significant projected hold edge over Zverev (88.7% to 73.6%).  Zverev's figure is pretty low for an indoor hard court, which is definitely worth bearing in mind for planning trading entry points.

Looking at Zverev's in-play data generally, we can see that he's above average in three of the four areas from the Lead Loss/Recovery spreadsheets - losing 1st set break leads (53.9%), recovering 1st set break deficits (42.9%) and recovering dominant deficits (45.0%).  He's around average for losing dominant leads (29.4%).

Bearing this in mind, we can see that he's very strong at recovering deficits generally and is a slow starter when he gets in front in the opening set.  However, for a player of his extreme talents, the flamboyant Monfils does not have superb deficit recovery stats, recovering first set break deficits 36.8% and dominant deficits 31.3% of the time.  These stats are worse than the lower ranked Zverev and are barely above the ATP mean.

Therefore for entry points for opposing Zverev, we are mainly restricted to opposing him in the opening set, where his lead retention stats are awful.  His stats also fit the profile of a player who should struggle to retain leads in tiebreaks.

Opposing Monfils when leading is tough to justify even with a high combined score in the first set (80.8) because of his very high projected hold percentage.  My script applies a significant stake reduction for this situation.  

Overall, definitely not a match with as many opportunities to enter as some of the previous matches highlighted this week, but one where there are some entry points.  In addition, it's also been useful for me to try and explain some of my thought processes behind planning a trading script in advance.

Recommendations:-

1) Lay Zverev a break up in the first set 
2) Lay Zverev in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  

I hope you enjoyed today's preview and please feel free to send any comments or feedback to any of my accounts:-

Twitter: @Tennisratings
Skype: @Tennisratings



February 11th, 2016:-

Alexander Zverev (GER) vs Gilles Simon (FRA), 2nd round, ATP Rotterdam, 8:00pm UK time.

The Data:-


Zverev

Simon




Current Pinnacle Price

3.32

1.40

TennisRatings Model Price

3.50

1.40

Service Hold %

78.4

76.7

Break Opponent %

17.9

31.6

Combined %

96.3

108.3

Projected Hold %

66.6

78.6

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

53.9

48.2

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

42.9

51.4

Combined Score Set 1

105.3

91.1

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

29.1

21.1

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

45.0

43.8

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

72.9

66.1


* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets - to get a free trial day please sign up for updates.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

Gilles Simon got the job done against Robin Haase yesterday after the Dutchman predictably choked away a lead, giving followers of these previews solid trading profit last night.

With the Frenchman successful after a dodgy start last night, his match-up against the promising German teenager, Alexander Zverev, has the potential to offer more of the same this evening at around 8pm UK time.

The markets give Zverev a slightly bigger chance than Haase and that's pretty justified, with my model making prices correct this evening.  Therefore, as with last night, we need to look at in-play options with a view to formulating entry points.

The data above in the table shows that the match is likely to have a low projected hold dynamic, with Simon's projected hold a touch below the ATP Indoor Hard mean of around 81%, and Zverev's low at 66.6%.  On this basis there is a strong chance that this match will have more breaks of serve than the average ATP Indoor Hard match.

German youngster Alexander Zverev should see his serve pressured by Gilles Simon this evening...

In addition to this, we can see that at 105.3 and 91.1, the two players have very high combined scores for set 1 for lead retention/deficit recovery, with the ATP mean around 70 in this area.  On this basis, it's viable to oppose either player a break up in set one, although preferably this would be Zverev as his figure is higher, and his projected hold percentage is lower.

Furthermore, we can also see that the sets 2/3 combined score on Zverev is over my personal threshold of 70 (mean is just over 60) - his is 72.9.  Bearing this in mind, as well as the low projected hold on the German, laying Zverev a set and break up, or a break up in the final set can also be considered.

Recommendations:-

1) Lay either player a break up in the first set (preferably Zverev)
2) Lay Zverev a set and break up in set two, or a break up in set three.
3) Lay Zverev player a double break up.
4) Lay Zverev serving for any set/the match.
5) Lay Zverev in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  

I hope you enjoyed today's preview and please feel free to send any comments or feedback to any of my accounts:-

Twitter: @Tennisratings
Skype: @Tennisratings



February 10th, 2016:-

Robin Haase (NED) vs Gilles Simon (FRA), 1st round, ATP Rotterdam, 6:30pm UK time.

The Data:-


Haase

Simon




Current Pinnacle Price

4.13

1.29

TennisRatings Model Price

4.33

1.30

Service Hold %

78.1

76.5

Break Opponent %

18.7

31.0

Combined %

96.8

107.5

Projected Hold %

66.9

77.6

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

43.8

48.2

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

31.6

51.4

Combined Score Set 1

95.2

79.8

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

36.8

21.1

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

32.0

43.8

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

80.6

53.1


* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets - to get a free trial day please sign up for updates.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

After the disappointment of Jaziri against Granollers last night in Memphis, we turn to this evening's Sky Sports televised match between the local wildcard, Robin Haase, and the French world number 15, Gilles Simon.

Simon unsurprisingly starts as a heavy favourite around the 1.30 mark although he was very disappointing in a woeful performance against Dustin Brown in Montpellier last week, particularly on his favoured return, which didn't fire at all.  Having said that, the German/Jamaican Brown was in superb form all week and wasn't far from reaching the final in the tournament.

Gilles Simon endured a tough afternoon in Montpellier last week...

Opponent Haase has endured a mediocre start to 2016 with his biggest priced win being 1.56 in a tight 3-setter against Aslan Karatsev.  A straight sets defeat to Mirza Basic in the Australian Open was very poor and he was ousted in the opening round of Sofia last week by Lukas Rosol.

In short, both players have a little to prove on current form and with the odds pre-match correct, it looks like Simon will prolong Haase's misery at the start of the new season.

Simon has been historically superb at recovering break deficits, with the table above showing that he's recovered the first break in the first set 51.4% of the time since July 2014, and he's recovered a set and break or final set deficit 43.8% of the time - both these stats are well in excess of the ATP mean.

Haase, as has been well documented on social media, isn't the best front-runner, although that's at least partially dictated by the fact that he frequently has low projected hold percentages in matches.  However he's lost a break lead more often than average and that's something to consider.

Also worth taking into account is that Haase's projected hold of below 70% is very poor and also makes him very vulnerable towards losing leads.  On that basis we can look to build up a strategy to oppose Haase in play.  It's also worth noting that Simon's first set break lead retention (48.2% lost) is also poor.

Recommendations:-

1) Lay Simon a break up in the first set.
2) Lay Haase a set and break up in set two, or a break up in set three.
3) Lay Haase player a double break up.
4) Lay Haase serving for any set/the match.
5) Lay Haase in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  

I hope you enjoyed today's preview and please feel free to send any comments or feedback to any of my accounts:-

Twitter: @Tennisratings
Skype: @Tennisratings


February 9th, 2016:-

Malek Jaziri (TUN) vs Marcel Granollers (ESP), 1st round, ATP Memphis, 7:00pm UK time.

The Data:-


Jaziri

Granollers




Current Pinnacle Price

2.29

1.72

TennisRatings Model Price

2.25

1.80

Service Hold %

75.0

75.2

Break Opponent %

16.3

20.4

Combined %

91.3

95.6

Projected Hold %

72.2

76.5

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

26.7

50.0

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

33.3

41.2

Combined Score Set 1

67.9

83.3

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

46.2

70.6

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

26.3

34.8

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

81.0

96.9

  
* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets - to get a free trial day please sign up for updates.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

It is fair to say that this match, the first on the schedule in Memphis tonight probably isn't the most glamorous on display in today's packed schedule, but it certainly appeals from a trading perspective.

Both players are somewhat out of form with Jaziri having lost his last four matches (0-3 this season) whilst Granollers had a very poor defeat to Andrej Martin on clay last week in Quito, in somewhat different conditions than he will experience indoors in Tennessee this evening.  The Spaniard has really struggled to string any consistent performances together at ATP level in the last six months.

Marcel Granollers has not impressed in recent months...

Considering this, I'm expecting both players' confidence to be quite brittle, and this won't help with lead retention at all.  In addition, the stats also back up my assertion that lead retention will be an issue.

First of all, the projected hold profile for this match is very low, with projected holds of 72.2% and 76.5% respectively.  The small difference, in favour of Granollers, makes the pre-match bookmaker lines look to be roughly correct, with Granollers favourite in the low 1.70's.

On that basis we need to look at in-play angles to create entry points, and we can see that Granollers in particular should be extremely vulnerable as a front-runner, with combined scores of 83.3 when leading in the first set and 96.9 in dominant positions (set and break, break up in set three).  These figures are well in excess of the ATP mean and with this, and the projected hold percentages taken into account, it looks like Granollers can be opposed when leading by a break and trading below SP.  Certainly his 70.6% set 2/3 lead loss figure is one of the worst on the ATP Tour.

In addition, Jaziri has lost a dominant break lead 46.2% in sets two and three and this leads to a combined score of 81.0 for the Tunisian in dominant spots, making it viable to oppose him in-play in these spots.  

Overall, the profile for this match is extremely swingy and it should make it a very attractive trading proposition.

Recommendations:-

1) Lay Granollers a break up in the first set.
2) Lay either player a set and break up in set two, or a break up in set three.
3) Lay either player a double break up, particularly Granollers.
4) Lay either player in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  

I hope you enjoyed today's preview and please feel free to send any comments or feedback to any of my accounts:-

Twitter: @Tennisratings
Skype: @Tennisratings









February 8th, 2016:-

Diego Schwartzman (ARG) vs Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR), 1st round, ATP Buenos Aires, 9:45pm UK time.

The Data:-


Schwartzman

Dolgopolov




Current Pinnacle Price

2.81

1.51

TennisRatings Model Price

2.89

1.53

Service Hold %

67.7

79.5

Break Opponent %

30.5

24.8

Combined %

98.2

104.3

Projected Hold %

63.1

69.2

Loses 1st break lead Set 1

50.0

41.4

Recovers 1st break deficit Set 1

63.6

47.4

Combined Score Set 1

97.4

105.0

Loses 1st dominant break lead (Sets 2&3)

70.0

40.7

Recovers 1st dominant break deficit (Sets 2&3)

70.6

44.4

Combined Score Sets 2 & 3

114.4

111.3


* Model pricing, hold/break percentages and projected hold percentages are available for all matches in the daily ATP/WTA spreadsheets.
** Specific break lead loss/deficit recovery data for over 100 players in each of the ATP/WTA Tours are available in the Lead Loss/Recovery data spreadsheets.

Analysis:-

An interesting contrast between an out and out traditional clay courter in Schwartzman, playing in his home country, and more of an all-courter in the shape of Dolgopolov.  However, Dolgopolov is by no means uncomfortable on clay and has had some good results on slow courts previously (final of Rio, semi-final & final of Umag) and deserves his status as favourite, as the hold/break stats above indicate.  Pictures on social media suggest Dolgopolov was in South America in good time to prepare for this tournament.

The diminutive Diego Schwartzman's return game is much stronger than his serve...

These stats make his pre-match stats as a reasonably solid favourite at odds of around 1.50 completely justified.  Considering this, we need to look at some viable trading angles to see if we can establish some good entry points for this match, and to try and build a script for the match in advance.

We can see straight off that the projected hold profile for this match is very low.  Schwartzman (63.1%) and Dolgopolov (69.2%) both have projected hold percentages below the ATP clay court mean of 77.0% and this isn't surprising given the likely slow nature of conditions in Argentina and the fact that Schwartzman's game is extremely return orientated.  In fact, there isn't a player on the ATP Tour with a smaller difference between their hold & break percentages (his is 37.2% on clay, ATP clay mean 54.0%), indicating extreme return orientation.

So on that basis it's pretty fair to assume there's going to be more breaks of serve than average in this match.  Therefore a break lead should be much less useful than it would be in the average match.  It will be interesting to see if the markets fully take this into account.

We can also see that the percentages for losing break leads for Schwartzman is extremely high.  He's lost a first break lead in the first set 50.0% since July 2014, and a dominant lead (set & break or break lead in set 3) 70.0% combined.  These figures are far in excess of the ATP means, which hover around the 30% mark, so it's obvious to see that Schwartzman's matches feature a high degree of lead losses from him, and deficit recoveries from his opponents.  That's also the case in the reverse situation, with Schwartzman recovering 63.6% in the first set and 70.6% from dominant deficits - making him out to be the ultimate ATP player to expect lead losses and deficit recoveries full stop.

Opponent Dolgopolov also enjoys his fair share of market swings, losing leads and recovering deficits in the 40%-50% bracket, well above average, and with this taken into account too, it's clear that this match should provide some excellent market swings overall.

Considering this, we can look at building a script for the match in advance.  The return orientated dynamics of the match, listed above, in addition to no value on either player, contribute to these entry points:-

1) Lay either player a break up in any set, when trading below SP - effectively this will be a break up in the first set, a set and break up, or a break up in the final set.
2) Lay either player a double break up, particularly in the first set.
3) Lay either player in tiebreaks when leading by 3 points and trading below SP.  

I hope you enjoyed today's preview and please feel free to send any comments or feedback to any of my accounts:-

Twitter: @Tennisratings
Skype: @Tennisratings



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