June 2014 Match Previews Archive

28th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


John Isner's match with Feliciano Lopez should feature tie-breaks...

ATP Five Set Winners in Previous Rounds:-

Still In:-
(Bold Indicates 5 Set Win in Previous Round)

Leo Mayer
Jerzy Janowicz
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Jeremy Chardy
Andrey Kuznetsov
Simone Bolelli
Nick Kyrgios
Jiri Vesely
Kevin Anderson
Grigor Dimitrov
Santiago Giraldo (although that match was spread over several days)

Knocked Out:-

Jan Hernych
Fabio Fognini
Dusan Lajovic
Yen-Hsun Lu
Richard Gasquet
Julian Reister

It's day six of Wimbledon today and there are a further 16 matches on the schedule as the 3rd round draws to a conclusion before a rest day tomorrow.

Men's action kicks off at 11:30 as usual today and there's an interesting clash first up between two young guns - Nick Kyrgios and Jiri Vesely.  Both conquered much more illustrious opponents in the previous rounds and after watching Kyrgios save nine match points on the way to beating Richard Gasquet, it was hard not to be impressed with his aggressive style and clear will to win.  He does have more of a sample on grass and currently a very impressive record and whilst it's difficult to predict how a 5 set match will affect either player, I like the 1.87 about the Australian today.

I also like opposing the Vesely serve on occasion, based on the Rolling Projected Hold stats in today's Tier Two Spreadsheet.

One match that has the potential to be a long, drawn out affair, is the clash between two big servers inFeliciano Lopez and John Isner.  Both players have stellar service stats on grass with Lopez holding 94.0% and Isner 95.8%.  When you consider this is against the 'average' returner, and neither player can be considered that today, it doesn't take a genius to work out projected holds will be very high for this indeed...

With projected holds extremely high, the chances of tiebreaks and no-break sets are very high indeed.  Both players also have very high break-point clutch scores so backing either player in-game when losing on serve definitely appeals.

Whilst trading angles are fairly limited here with both players being big servers, my new product - The Ultimate Pre-Match Spreadsheet - flags up some very relevant stats for pre-match betting.

From 1/6/13 to 1/6/14 Isner has covered the over 9.5 game handicap in the first set an incredible 87.5% of the time when underdog, with Lopez doing so 58.3% as favourite - both over the 51.6% ATP mean.

Furthermore, both players - as can be logically expected - have a propensity to generate tiebreaks with Lopez having had a first set tiebreak 27.6% and Isner an amazing 52.4% - much higher than the 19.3% ATP average.

Regarding shocks, I can't see any of the favourites losing today, particularly Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori and Rafael Nadal - and backing them when losing or a break down if the price is viable appeals, with opponents Giraldo, Bolelli and Kukushkin having either/or low projected holds or poor break lead retention stats.  

Perhaps Milos Raonic is the most vulnerable against competent grass courter Lukasz Kubot but I've been very impressed by the Canadian this week, and I'm not convinced Kubot is 100% fit.

In WTA action, Vera Zvonareva's stats are much worse this year than previous years and I feel opponent Zarina Diyas is the value pick for their clash at around 1.67.  I like opposing the Zvonareva serve when the set is on serve in that match.

Serena Williams and Simona Halep are strong favourites against Alize Cornet and Belinda Bencicrespectively and both prices are justified - and I like backing either player a break down in this, with Williams recovering a break deficit 71.7% and Halep 61.3% in the last 12 months, which are elite for the WTA.  

This is not the case for Maria Sharapova who recovers deficits less frequently, at 53.9%.  She starts at 1.14 against Alison Riske, who loves grass, and may be tested by the American, although I do feel Sharapova will make it through to the second week.

As always, good luck in the markets!

27th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Andy Murray could be tested by Roberto Bautista-Agut today...

ATP Five Set Winners in Previous Rounds:-
(Bold indicates previous round win)

Still In:-
(Bold Indicates 5 Set Win in Previous Round)

Leo Mayer
Jerzy Janowicz
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Jeremy Chardy
Andrey Kuznetsov
Simone Bolelli
Nick Kyrgios
Jiri Vesely
Kevin Anderson
Santiago Giraldo (although that match was spread over several days)

Knocked Out:-

Jan Hernych
Fabio Fognini
Dusan Lajovic
Yen-Hsun Lu
Richard Gasquet
Julian Reister

I've been mostly away from the Tennis world in the last couple of days so haven't been able to preview matches, although I've managed to watch quite a few - but things are back to normal now and with two very intriguing clashes in prospect this evening in men's action, here are the previews for those later matches.

Defending champion and home favourite Andy Murray takes on Hertogenbosch champion Roberto Bautista-Agut and the Spaniard might be able to keep this close - Murray starts at around 1.09 and I feel that's short and a bit of an insult against a very competent all-courter.

There are an abundance of reasons why this is likely to be the case with home support and his demolition of Blaz Rola in the second round just two of these but I feel that anything other than a straightforward win over Rola would have been a huge concern, with the Slovenian not having played much on grass at all and much more comfortable on the clay.

As previously mentioned, Bautista-Agut has already claimed a title on grass and is probably the most improved player on tour in 2014 so he should not be underestimated here - he also has an excellent record when an underdog and has several large priced wins under his belt.  

Projected holds are much closer than the market prices and although they make Murray a justified favourite, it does make him short priced here.  It's also worth mentioning that Bautista-Agut has much better break point stats compared to expectation.

Whilst trading angles are fairly limited here with both players being fairly solid when a break up, my new product - The Ultimate Pre-Match Spreadsheet - flags up some very relevant stats for pre-match betting.

From 1/6/13 to 1/6/14 Murray has covered the standard price range game handicap line as a favourite just 37.0%, whilst Bautista-Agut has covered the standard price range game handicap line as an underdog 54.6% of the time, so with the pre-match value on the Spaniard, backing him on the game handicap looks a very viable proposition.

The Spaniard also has won at least a set 61.9% when an underdog - above the ATP mean of 56.2% - and with Murray winning 2-0 as a favourite just 44.4% - 2.2% below the ATP mean - backing Bautista-Agut +2.5 sets can also be considered.  When the fact that Murray is often very heavy favourite - much more than the average player - is also considered, it becomes apparent that backing the Scotsman to win 2-0 generally is a bad proposition.

Also starting soon is the clash between two big hitters in Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych.

This is expected by many to be a battle of two big servers but it's worth noting that whilst both have above-average service stats on grass (particularly Berdych) both players are also above average on return.  Considering they're high ranked players, this is little surprise, but Cilic's return stats are better than Berdych's, and reduce the Czech's projected hold a little.

Projected holds are merely on the high side of average, probably a little different to many people's expectations.  Berdych has an edge and this shows his price of around 1.56 is about right.

Berdych has taken five of the seven head to head meetings between the two players and as I've mentioned many times on here, he has absolutely incredible break deficit recovery stats - at 54.7% the best on ATP Tour.  His numbers are better than Nadal, Murray, Djokovic and Ferrer and in the case of Murray and Djokovic, significantly better.  Given that he breaks less than all of these four, it has to indicate that he has excellent self belief and never gives up when losing in a set.

These stats indicate that he can be backed when a break down here and this looks to be the best in-play strategy today.

As always, good luck in the markets!

25th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Which Fabio Fognini will turn up today...

ATP Five Set Winners in Previous Rounds:-
(Bold indicates previous round win)

Leo Mayer
Jan Hernych
Fabio Fognini
Jerzy Janowicz
Dusan Lajovic
Yen-Hsun Lu
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Richard Gasquet
Julian Reister

It's day three of Wimbledon and on Monday, yesterday's matches were relatively shock-free with favourites generally advancing without much difficulty.  

The second round of both ATP & WTA events starts in around half an hour and the most likely match on the men's schedule today to have the highest percentage of breaks is Tim Puetz against Fabio Fognini.

I don't know a great deal about Puetz other than that he's 26 and never broken the top 200, so his potential should be fairly limited.  He had a decent win over Ruben Bemelmans in qualifying as a heavy underdog but his Challenger record of 16-15 is mediocre - and his stats indicate a slight preference to hard surfaces as opposed to clay.  

What I do know about his opponent is that Fognini can lose to literally anyone if his mind goes walkabout - as it did in the first two sets against Alex Kuznetsov on Monday.  The volatile Italian is 1.30 for this and that's probably a bit short for me - it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see this trading higher although it's worth noting he's only lost once as a favourite on grass since 2009, from four matches.  

Puetz's stats show he's probably a bit stronger on return than serve and this is obviously the case for Fognini, so laying the Italian a break up should be a worthwhile strategy here.

Another match where projected holds are low is Mikhail Youzhny's clash with Jimmy Wang.  The Taiwanese player is relatively decent on grass and Youzhny isn't averse to a long, drawn out match.  His facile round one win was a surprise.

As far as shocks go, I feel Sergiy Stakhovsky isn't without a chance against Ernests Gulbis who seems to struggle to break opponents on grass, and I also like Leo Mayer who faces Marcos Baghdatis.  The Cypriot struggled with a shoulder injury in the first round during his win over Dustin Brown.

In WTA action, the lowest projected hold by far is Yvonne Meusburger who faces Li Na.  Should Meusburger go a break up, laying her would be a solid strategy if the price is viable.

I don't have many stats on Ana Konjuh but what I do have indicates her match with Yanina Wickmayercould have breaks and swings, and this is also the case for Lauren Davis' clash with Flavia Pennetta.  I feel the Italian is slight value at 1.67 there.

Venus Williams may be in the autumn of her career but she's still got excellent break deficit recovery stats - 60.0% in the last 12 months - and opponent Kurumi Nara is not strong at protecting a break lead.  Laying Nara a break up appeals there.

As far as upsets go, perhaps a couple of decent servers in Alison Van Uytvanck and Casey Dellacquacould keep their matches close at least against Dominika Cibulkova and Agnieszka Radwanska.

As always, good luck in the markets!


24th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Dudi Sela's match with Mikhail Kukushkin should make for excellent trading conditions...

It's day two of Wimbledon and after a day where upsets were few and far between, it will be very interesting to see whether this trend continues.  Wimbledon does tend to be an event dominated by favourites, with last year's tournament being against that general trend.

We see the start of Rafael Nadal's campaign today and it's fair to say that the first few matches he potentially faces could all be described as 'banana skins'.  He takes on Martin Klizan today and is realistically priced at just over 1.10.  The Slovakian has shown some solid form lately after an injury absence and should not be underestimated - however if the price allows, stats indicate that Klizan should be opposed when a break up.

Roger Federer takes on Paolo Lorenzi and is justifiably short at 1.02 and I'd be shocked if the Italian clay-courter could break the Swiss legend - who has a very high projected hold.  Laying Lorenzi a break up also appeals.

Both Dudi Sela and Mikhail Kukushkin tend to have very swingy matches with both players having very poor service stats but good break stats.  Both also lose break leads very often and this could be a superb match to trade - laying either player a break up appeals here.

Players I feel that are worth getting on if losing - based on their opponents having low projected holds and a high combined break-back score when a break up - are Santiago Giraldo against Daniel Gimeno-TraverLleyton Hewitt against Mikhail PryzsieznyDusan Lajovic against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Yen-Hsun Lu versus Alexandr Nedovyesov.

The most vulnerable favourites in the men's event today would definitely include Stan Wawrinka - who is very poor on fast surfaces - against Joao Sousa, whose stats indicate he is very under-rated on them.  Jerzy Janowicz has a game suited to grass but has been awful this season and a poor display could see Somdev Devvarman take advantage, whilst Kenny De Schepper has the serve to keep his match close against Kei Nishikori.

Finally it will be interesting to see how Jiri Vesely performs on his first match on grass.  It's only his opponent - Victor Estrella - who ensures he is 1.24, and I feel that's short.

In the WTA, the match with the potential to be the swingiest would be Shuai Zhang against Carla Suarez Navarro, with the Spaniard having retired against Jie Zheng last time out.  I also feel Zhang is under-rated as a 3.45 underdog today.

Players I like laying a break up include Anna Schmiedlova against Alize Cornet (although the Frenchwoman doesn't have a great grass record), Urszula Radwanska against Angelique Kerber (who does), Francesca Schiavone against Ana Ivanovic (who takes a 6-0 head to head lead into their match), Dinah Pfizenmaier against Lesia Tsurenko and Chanelle Scheepers against Christina McHale.

As always, good luck in the markets!

23rd JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Tobias Kamke's match with Jan Hernych could be swingy...

It's arguably the biggest day in the Tennis Calendar - Day One of Wimbledon!  My main focus will be on the streamed games, which are plentiful compared to the ridiculousness of the French Open and these will be what I discuss in my concise previews...

Andy Murray starts his defence of the men's event with a clash against the diminutive Belgian, David Goffin, and I'd be surprised if he was tested strongly.  He should be able to pick off the poor serve of Goffin with ease.

Players I feel that are worth getting on if losing - based on their opponents having low projected holds and a high combined break-back score when a break up - are Tomas Berdych against Victor Hanescu,Fernando Verdasco (who I feel represents strong value pre-match) against Marinko Matosevic,Andreas Seppi (who loves an epic 5-setter) against Leo MayerEdouard Roger-Vasselin versusFilippo Volandri (who is like a fish out of water away from clay, and he's not even that great on there!),David Ferrer against Pablo Carreno-Busta (who has shown little effort to prepare for grass), Andrey Golubev against tournament favourite Novak Djokovic and finally Benjamin Becker - adept on grass - for his clash with Donald Young.

Other matches where I feel there could be possible breaks and swings are Konstantin Kravchuk vs Gilles  SimonJimmy Wang vs Alejandro Gonzalez, Tobias Kamke vs Jan Hernych, Alex Kuznetsov vs Fabio Fognini and finally the aforementioned Young vs Becker match.

The most vulnerable favourites in the men's event today appear to be Kevin Anderson, who faces Aljaz Bedene, and Grigor Dimitrov against Ryan Harrison - with this match in particular having the potential for very close sets.

I also feel Marcos Baghdatis - against Dustin Brown - could be vulnerable from 2-0 up in sets with his notorious fitness issues.

In the WTA, the matches with the potential to be the swingiest include Misaki Doi against Elina SvitolinaVania King versus Yvonne MeusburgerMonica Niculescu against Alison Van Uytvanckand Alex Wozniak against Dominika Cibulkova.  All of these have low projected holds.

I particularly like laying Paula Ormaechea and Kimiko Date-Krumm a break up today, although I do feel Date-Krumm represents value at 4.90 for her match with Ekaterina Makarova.

As always, good luck in the markets and here's to a great Wimbledon 2014!


17th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


James Ward's match with Donald Young could have swings...

Matches are just getting underway today, so the plan for today's previews is to give my concise thoughts over a few of today's clashes...

There's 27 matches on today's schedule and a number promise to be competitive affairs, with just three having favourites below 1.20.

I don't think any of those heavy favourites - Eugenie Bouchard, Simona Halep and Nicolas Mahutshould be in much danger today and I'm not overly enthralled at taking them on at low starting prices here, although Mahut's opponent, Kimmer Coppejans, has little in the way of grass court stats, so it will be interesting to see how he fares.

One player that might have a chance at around evens is Santiago Giraldo, although there are concerns about his hip after retiring in Rome, and then falling meekly in straight sets when 1.44 favourite against Andreas Seppi at Roland Garros.  

The Columbian takes on Jarkko Nieminen in Eastbourne, whose grass stats aren't the best - backing Giraldo in-game when losing on serve looks the best line here.

Also on the south coast today is home player James Ward (above, pictured) and he faces the improving American, Donald Young.  So often a figure of fun, Young has improved his results, and his hold/break stats significantly of late, and prices making Young slight favourite look about right.

This match should have breaks and swings though - Young's matches tend to feature these and projected holds are low for this today.

Over in Hertogenbosch, I'd be surprised if Daniel Gimeno-Traver could improve on his 1-7 3 year ATP record on grass against all-courter Roberto Bautista-Agut and backing the higher ranked Spaniard - who starts at around 1.23 - when a break down appeals for this.

I'm not convinced Joao Sousa will have it all his own way against Paolo Lorenzi although surface sample size isn't great for either player.  A tight match could well be the case here.  It does seem that Sousa has a penchant for fast surfaces, with an impressive display in Halle last week against Roger Federer, and achieving his best ATP results on Indoor Hard.

In WTA action, I'd be surprised if Yvonne Meusburger could unduly trouble Garbine Muguruza inHertogenbosch and I like a 2-0 scoreline for the promising Spaniard.  Meusburger's projected hold is very low and I like taking on her serve if possible here.

If it's somehow possible I also like this line for Olga Govortsova against Simona Halep with the Belarussian having a very low projected hold, and high combined score a break up here.  However, with Halep starting at 1.10 it's going to take a fast start from Govortsova for this to happen, realistically.

Su Wei Hsieh has qualified for Eastbourne but her recent WTA singles record is atrocious, with her focusing heavily on doubles.  She faces Flavia Pennetta today and I also like taking on the Hsieh serve when realistically possible today.

Finally, this is also the case in a potentially swingy match between Sara Errani and Lauren Davis with the Italian perhaps a touch of value at around 1.50.  Laying either player a break up looks a good play here.

As always, good luck in the markets!

16th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Federico Delbonis has little grass-court experience...

Matches are just getting underway in this week's four tournaments and with conditions unlikely to be super-fast, there may be some reasonable trading opportunities.

There's 30 matches on today's schedule and the best match from a trading perspective is the one recently started between Julia Glushko and Annika Beck, with projected holds low and there have been 4/7 breaks already...

The best other WTA match is also in Hertogenbosch is the clash between Klara Koukalova - whose matches often make for decent trading material - and Maria Teresa Torro-Flor.

Koukalova starts at 1.40 for their match and this looks pretty reasonable, although possibly a touch short.  Torro-Flor has little grass court experience but has improved greatly in 2014.  From the stats, laying either player's serve when the set is on serve, and laying Koukalova a break up is a low-risk positive expectation proposition.

Over in Eastbourne, both Caroline Garcia and Sloane Stephens will be tough to break with projected holds high - with both players looking strong at saving break points based on the stats, the best trading angle here looks to be backing either player in-game when losing on serve, at points illustrated in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook.

This approach can also been considered for Agnieszka Radwanska (against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova) and Angelique Kerber (against Alison Riske).

In men's action, I like the chances of Dan Evans at home in Eastbourne against Tobias Kamke with the Brit at 2.25 despite having better ATP grass court stats.  Opposing Kamke's serve looks the way forward here.

This is also the case for Andrey Golubev, whose serve isn't his biggest weapon, against Bernard Tomic.  The Australian has not done much to justify any of his hype or potential in 2014 and has slipped down the rankings, but has a liking for grass.  His price of 1.37 looks about right but there could be some angles to oppose Golubev's serve in play today.

It's tough to analyse the match between two clay courters in Martin Klizan and Federico Delbonis with the Argentine barely having played a match on grass, but Klizan does have the better record on grass, and also on the fastest other surface, indoor hard.  The limited stats I do have make Klizan value even as a heavy favourite here.

Finally I feel Adrian Mannarino is some value also as a heavy favourite in Hertogenbosch against Matt Ebden.  Both like grass but Mannarino's stats are much better than the Australian's, who has a very poor record as an underdog and looking to oppose Ebden's serve when the set is on serve looks the plan here, if the price is viable.

As always, good luck in the markets!

15th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Yanina Wickmayer has more recent grass court experience than Andrea Petkovic...

It's finals day across the first grass court events of the season with three titles being decided today.

In ATP action, Roger Federer has made his 9th straight final at Halle, in a run going back to 2003, which is obviously an incredible achievement.  The Swiss legend takes on an unlikely opponent in Alejandro Falla, whose grass stats are nothing special at all, with the Columbian holding 79.1% and breaking 16.3% across 13 grass court matches in the last three years.

Federer leads the head to head record 6-0 and quite unusually, four of these matches have been on grass.   Routine wins for Federer in 2004 and 2010, at Wimbledon and here at Halle respectively, were achieved with the loss of just six games across five sets, but the last two - a month later in 2010 at Wimbledon, and at the 2012 Olympics - were tighter affairs, with both matches going the distance.

However, it would be a surprise if this was anything other than a straight sets win for Federer, and only if this is not the case, would there be likely trading avenues.

Quite unsurprisingly, Falla has a low projected hold but he'd need to be a set up before you could look at laying his serve, with Federer starting as a 1.10 favourite.  Should this be the case, there should be plenty of chances to lay Falla, whose record at holding serve in late games is absolutely atrocious, as evidenced by the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet data.

With a combined score of 84.7, it's also viable to lay Falla a break up.  He loses a break lead 42.3% which is around 11.4% above the ATP mean, and also gives further weight to the fact that he is a big choker - shown in the first set against Philipp Kohlschreiber (not the strongest mentally himself) yesterday.

Over at QueensGrigor Dimitrov takes on Feliciano Lopez, whose serve has worked very well this week.  There's been a little bit of support for Lopez overnight as an underdog, and this isn't a huge surprise - this should be tight with several key points deciding the victor.

Projected holds are unsurprisingly high at over 90% apiece and I think Lopez is the value pick here, although it's worth mentioning Dimitrov wins these type of slight favourite matches a lot, and a fair proportion in straight sets.  

The line I like here is to back Lopez in-game when losing on serve.  The TennisRatings Trading Handbook specifies the situations where this is viable, and with a high projected hold, a good break point 'clutch' score and the value on the Spaniard, this looks an excellent line.  With it being a final, and live on the BBC, I'd expect in-game liquidity to be decent.

The men's matches in Hertogenbosch have little appeal.  Alexandr Nedovyesov has little experience on grass so it's little better than guesswork to how he will perform against Jesse Huta Galung, with the Dutchman having a huge issue stepping up to the ATP from the Challenger tour (he's 0-7 in the last 12 months at ATP level).

If Benoit Paire is fit against Dudi Sela, the 1.65 about him probably is a decent price, but that's not easy to know, but backing Paire as a favourite has fairly limited appeal anyway.  Against a player who is much weaker on serve than return, this could be a comedy of errors with a multitude of breaks.  Much better trading potential than pre-match, that's for sure!

In Birmingham, the short-priced juggernaut that is Ana Ivanovic continues to thrive and the Serb has now won her last 28 matches when priced under 1.20, which is an incredible achievement.

She can make it 29 against Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, who must serve to her maximum potential if she is to have any chance of taking this.

Trading angles are fairly limited, with my projected hold stats indicating a large number of breaks are unlikely, and with BZS being weak on return, I'd expect Ivanovic to hold relatively easily in the vast majority of her service games.

What I do like here is laying Zahlavova Strycova a break up - she's lost a break lead 45.5% in the last 12 months, which is pretty much bang on WTA average.  Ivanovic has recovered a deficit 58.3%, which is very strong, and this trade is probably the best approach today.

Finally, there are three WTA matches in Hertogenbosch also, with the match between Kaia Kanepi andYvonne Meusburger looking like it could be the one with the most breaks.  However, as Nedovyesov, Meusburger has little grass court experience or stats, so it's tough to get a decent idea on how she will perform.

I do feel Yanina Wickmayer may be able to get Andrea Petkovic's price to trade higher.  The German starts at around 1.43 but in the last 12 months, Wickmayer has played 9 matches on grass compared to Petkovic's two.

Three year grass stats are also in this vein, with Wickmayer having played 20 times, and Petkovic just six.  In those, Petkovic does have the statistical edge, with her holding 7.8% more, and breaking 0.9% more, but this doesn't quite justify today's price, particularly with the Belgian having played 5 sets on grass this week in Birmingham and Petkovic skipping this week to recover from her clay run to the French Open semi finals.

As always, good luck in the markets!

13th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Ana Ivanovic has won her last 26 matches when priced under 1.20...

It's the quarter-final stage of this week's tournaments and we have certainly seen some shocks this week!  Today's action gets underway in just under an hour and it will be interesting to see if this trend continues...

One match where odds range historical data shows that an upset is unlikely is Ana Ivanovic againstKlara Koukalova in Birmingham.

Ivanovic has been backed into under 1.20, and it's worth noting that the Serb has won her last 26 when sub-1.20, winning the first set in 24 of these matches.  She's also won the first set 6-0/6-1/6-2 15/26 which illustrates that despite projected holds indicating that she should be priced around 1.30, a lay to back position on her isn't recommended.

It's probably of little surprise to many that Koukalova has the worst projected hold in today's WTA matches and with her losing a break lead 54.9% and Ivanovic recovering a break deficit 58.3%, laying the Czech player a break up is a strategy that appeals here.

This is also the case for the Japanese veteran Kimiko Date Krumm for her match against Casey Dellacqua.  

Date Krumm, who consistently belies her advances years, is possibly a touch of value at around 3.00 but several factors are hugely against her.

Firstly, she's one of the worst players in the WTA for holding onto break leads, losing them 66.7% in the last 12 months.  Even with Dellacqua's deficit recovery percentage being mediocre, this is enough to warrant laying Date Krumm a break up today.

Furthermore, Dellacqua has a magnificent record when expected to win, winning her last 16 games when her closing price was as a favourite.  Considering that many of her matches weren't far from evens, that is an incredible achievement.

In men's action, I quite like taking on Kei Nishikori on with a lay to back against Steve Johnson in Halle, with fitness doubts still abounding over the Japanese player, and the American having an excellent challenger tour record on grass.

Nishikori starts at around 1.25 and projected holds are close and on the low side.

Peter Gojowcyzk hasn't got much of a sample on grass but looks a short price at 2.10 or so againstAlejandro Falla, who has much more experience on the surface - perhaps an over-reaction to the German's win over Milos Raonic (a player who looks worth taking on during the grass season).  I quite like laying Gojo's serve using the Rolling Projected Hold triggers today.

Over at Queens, another player worth taking on during the grass season is Stan Wawrinka, but the draw gods have been very kind to him, handing him Marcos Baghdatis (shattered from his Nottingham win last week), one of the biggest chokers in tennis, Sam Querrey, and now the injured, mediocre and also 'Nottingham shattered' Marinko Matosevic.

The Australian journeyman, who has been vocal of his criticism of the WTA in recent days, would do well to check out his own stats prior to launching a diatribe, with his 3-year grass court hold percentage actually 0.2% below the WTA grass court mean hold percentage!

This indicates that there's value on Stan at 1.37 although it's worth pointing out the Swiss has a horror record when a short priced favourite recently.  Taking on the Matosevic serve, in individual games (unless he's holding easily) when the set is on serve, looks the play here.  Wawrinka's deficit recovery percentage is atrocious for a player of his ranking, showing he throws in the towel way too easily during sets, so laying MM a break up doesn't appeal here.

I also quite like Radek Stepanek, shock conqueror of Andy Murray yesterday, against Kevin Anderson.  The South African's grass stats are pretty average, and whilst Stepanek's serve has declined badly recently, his return stats have actually improved.  Laying Anderson's serve on grass is a low-risk high-reward proposition, so this looks a good play for this match.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

10th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Lauren Davis doesn't have the best record for holding serve on grass...

The grass court season got started yesterday and to be brutally honest, it was a bit of a minefield with many players having little grass court experience.  To get decent sample sizes, a fair amount of creativity and adjustments are required, so getting projected hold percentages and pricing up matches takes at least twice as long as a normal hard court or clay tournament...

I'm just going to skim through a few matches where I think there will be breaks today.  With breaks at more of a premium on grass than any other, identifying these should result in excellent trading opportunities.

In BirminghamLauren Davis (above, pictured) has a poor grass court record and has struggled to hold serve on the surface.  Opponent Victoria Duval is another player who is better on return than serve and in a match priced around evens apiece, opposing either player's serve looks a generally viable approach.

I also quite like opposing Belinda Bencic's serve against the much more experienced on grass Daniela Hantuchova.  The veteran has a strong history on the surface and starts as a slight underdog, which doesn't make a bundle of sense here, especially as she's defending a lot of ranking points this week.  

No doubt Bencic is a player of huge potential but she's not really played on grass before and I feel Hantuchova's surface experience could be key here - laying Bencic at short prices if she goes a set and break up should appeal.

Mona Barthel doesn't have the best grass record but is priced correctly as a 4.10 underdog against Ana Ivanovic.  The Serb isn't the best on grass but should be too good here, with Barthel having a low projected hold.  Laying Barthel's serve if the price is viable appeals, as does laying her a break up today, and this is also the case for Anna Schmiedlova, who is very poor in pressure moments such as defending a break lead, or in late games of the set, against Christina McHale.

Men's matches don't have an abundance of low projected holds but I feel Alejandro Falla could be vulnerable against a better grass courter in Lukas Kubot, who made the quarter-finals of Wimbledon last year.  Laying Falla when the set is on serve looks a good option here in Halle.

Ilya Marchenko's match with Teymuraz Gabashvili has low projected holds and actually Marchenko - making a rare foray onto the main tour - doesn't have the worst grass court record in the world.  There may be a little value on him today. 

Over at Queens, most of the low projected holds come from the heavy underdogs, with only several players who aren't heavy underdogs looking vulnerable.

Mikhail Kukushkin's matches tend to make excellent trading material and this looks like it could be the case today against Radek Stepanek, whose serve stats have also declined in the last year or so.  The Kazakh actually is some value despite Stepanek not being bad at all on the surface but I feel opposing either player a break up is the way forward.

This is also the case for two other players who tend to have in-set fluctuations in Benoit Paire andJarkko Nieminen.  I don't rate the Finn at all on grass but who knows if Paire is fit?  If he is, then the 2.25 on him is very generous indeed...

Finally Matt Ebden is probably on his best surface in grass but that's not saying a lot.  The Australian journeyman is one of the worst players on tour and if Lukas Lacko is fit as well, then the 1.60 on the Slovak is a gift.  However, I didn't see his straight sets defeat to Federer at the French Open and on that basis it's tough to know if he played to get his first round Slam cheque after retiring in his previous match.

Ebden isn't a horror player for losing a break lead, but laying his serve in individual service games using the Rolling Projected Holds in the Tier Two Spreadsheet works much better here.  

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

8th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Can Rafa Nadal turn around a 4 match losing streak against Novak Djokovic today?

Current ATP 5 set winners still in the tournament:-
(For more information please check out the Implications of winning a 5 set match article.

None.

Already eliminated after a 5 set win:-

Jarkko Nieminen
Facundo Bagnis
Mikhail Youzhny
Radek Stepanek
Thomaz Bellucci
Axel Michon
Andreas Haider-Maurer
Steve Johnson
Martin Klizan
Marcel Granollers
Fernando Verdasco
Milos Raonic
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Gael Monfils
Ernests Gulbis
Andy Murray

The men's final of the French Open is upon us, and without doubt it's an attractive proposition for traders, as well as neutrals today.

Seeded to make the final, and the favourites to do so, both Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic have arrived at this point without major incident with Nadal dropping a solitary set against David Ferrer, and Djokovic losing one against each of Marin Cilic and Ernests Gulbis.

Nadal starts as a slight 1.80 favourite and that seems a little bit generous based on the clay stats, but not overly so - I priced him at 1.72 for this, despite a 4 match losing streak against the Serb world number two.  

One of the reasons why Nadal deserves favourtism is his much better break point stats - converting 49.3% of opportunities to Djokovic's 41.6%, and saving 67.6% to 64.2%.  It's not likely to be a match where chances are at a premium, as might be the case with two 'big servers', but in a 5 set battle with two of the greatest players of all time, it will be a factor.  On a side note, if Djokovic boasted those numbers, he'd be pretty much unbeatable on any surface.

On clay, Djokovic holds 85.1% to 83.3%, but breaks significantly less - 36.0% to Nadal's 44.1%.  This gives Nadal a reasonable edge on my projected hold model, but with both players boasting world-class return stats, the projected holds today are a little on the low side.  Nadal's is just below ATP clay mean, with Djokovic's low enough to warrant opposition of his serve in many circumstances, according to my Rolling Projected Hold triggers in today's ATP Tier Two Spreadsheet.

Laying Djokovic's serve from the off can be considered, and then using Rolling Projected Holds to assess further viability is the way forward.

I also like laying Djokovic a break up today.  Nadal's break deficit recovery percentage is big enough, and one of the best on the ATP tour at 54.4%.  Djokovic's has decreased - which should be a huge worry for him - significantly in the last few months and stands at 42.9%.  The Serb loses a break lead 20.4% and a combined score of 74.8 is just enough to warrant laying Djokovic when a break up, when coupled with the slight value on Nadal, and the very poor break point 'clutch' score that Djokovic has on today's trading spreadsheet, which takes into account the above break point stats.

The match has the potential to be an epic.  All seven Grand Slam head to head clashes since 2010 have never been decided in straight sets, with two decided in five.  Laying the player two sets up looks a strong play, and if Djokovic takes the first set, that's a possibility as well, depending on the game state.

This match has the potential to be very rewarding from a trading perspective - and should be a fantastic spectacle.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow - when the grass court season begins!

7th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Will nerves affect Simona Halep in her first Grand Slam final?

Current ATP 5 set winners still in the tournament:-
(For more information please check out the Implications of winning a 5 set match article.
(BOLD indicates 5 set win came in the previous round)

Already eliminated after a 5 set win:-

Jarkko Nieminen
Facundo Bagnis
Mikhail Youzhny
Radek Stepanek
Thomaz Bellucci
Axel Michon
Andreas Haider-Maurer
Steve Johnson
Martin Klizan
Marcel Granollers
Fernando Verdasco
Milos Raonic
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Gael Monfils
Ernests Gulbis
Andy Murray

The WTA event comes to a conclusion today with the final at Roland Garros, between Maria Sharapovaand Simona Halep.

There can be little comparison between the experience of the two players, with Sharapova 4-4 in her eight Grand Slam finals (although she's lost three of her last four) but Halep participating in her first.  Quite interestingly, and worryingly for the many people that I've seen advocating this bet on Twitter in the last day or so, all of Sharapova's eight finals have been decided in straight sets. 

That's not to say it won't happen - we've seen how the Russian has struggled in the first set in this event losing openers to Sam Stosur, Garbine Muguruza and Eugenie Bouchard, and needing a 7-5 set to get past the very limited Tsvetana Pironkova in the second round.

However, it's worth noting that Halep has not dropped a set on her path here and the second set tie-break against Andrea Petkovic was the first time she didn't win a set by a 6-4 or better margin.

It's pretty undeniable that clay is both players' best surfaces, and their hold/break stats on clay in the last 12 months bear this justice.  

Sharapova has won 23/25 matches, holding 73.0% and breaking 45.9%.
Halep has won 23/26 matches, holding 76.7% and breaking 54.1%.

On that basis, with Halep holding and breaking more, it's tough to make an argument for backing Sharapova at her current 1.75.  The only possible argument that her backers could have is the edge in experience, and the potential nerves of Halep.  But it's undeniable that Halep has played the better tennis on clay in the last 12 months, and in the last fortnight.

My projected hold model indicates value on Halep, pricing the Romanian at 1.89 today, but I do feel that this is a match where the Rolling Projected Holds - based on game state - could fluctuate quite wildly.  Certainly if Halep gets broken early, the match could take a very different path.

Another theme that has been discussed on Twitter recently is the never say die attitude of Sharapova.  This is true, to an extent.  She has a superb record of winning from a set down as favourite, doing so 28 times in her last 50 matches (56%).  

However, this isn't the case when she goes a break down.  Current 12 month stats have her recovering a break deficit at 53.9%, and this is worse than Halep's 61.3%.  Furthermore, this ranks her a very mediocre equal 26th in the WTA, level with Lauren Davis and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni.  Quite incredibly, players of the ilk of Mariana Duque Marino, Christina McHale, Teliana Pereira, Jana Cepelova and Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor have more impressive percentages.  Granted, these may often be against worse opponents, but Sharapova's percentage is still 8-10% below most top ten players.

Both players are solid a break up, with Sharapova losing a break lead 34.9% and Halep doing so 36.0% in the last 12 months.  Laying the player a break up cannot be considered today.

As far as predicting a winner goes, it's a bit of a heart/head moment.  My heart says Halep will get her first Slam title in her first final, but my head says Sharapova's experience will get her through today.  

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

6th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Accumulated fatigue is a huge negative for Andy Murray for his match-up with Rafael Nadal...

Current ATP 5 set winners still in the tournament:-
(For more information please check out the Implications of winning a 5 set match article.
(BOLD indicates 5 set win came in the previous round)

Ernests Gulbis
Andy Murray

Already eliminated after a 5 set win:-

Jarkko Nieminen
Facundo Bagnis
Mikhail Youzhny
Radek Stepanek
Thomaz Bellucci
Axel Michon
Andreas Haider-Maurer
Steve Johnson
Martin Klizan
Marcel Granollers
Fernando Verdasco
Milos Raonic
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Gael Monfils

It's men's semi-final day today at Roland Garros with two mouthwatering matches in prospect for the neutral, despite both matches featuring justifiably heavy favourites.

First on court is the highly impressive Ernests Gulbis who has the unenviable task of taking on Novak Djokovic.  The Serb starts at 1.15 here.

Interestingly, Djokovic has a track history of dropping sets when heavy favourite in the 3-set format, but this stat decreases heavily in Grand Slam matches - perhaps he fully understands the effect that accumulated fatigue can have in the early stages of Slams.

Unsurprisingly, Djokovic has a decent edge in projected holds today, with his being high and Gulbis' a little lower than ATP mean.  However, the Latvian's isn't low enough to justify opposition of his serve today in individual service games, apart from very select circumstances using the Rolling Projected Holds in today's ATP Tier Two trading spreadsheet.

Neither is it viable to lay either player a break up, with Djokovic's break deficit recovery dropping alarmingly in recent months to 42.9% in the last 12 months.  Both players are solid when a break up, with Gulbis losing a lead to go back on serve 21.4% and Djokovic doing so 20.4%.

On that basis, trading angles as part of a pre-match script are hard to come by.  The best plan is to assess the in-play data and see if any triggers develop - I fully understand that's not something I've gone into in great detail, and unfortunately is something I like to keep to myself...

The second match today is the clash between Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray, with Nadal taking the recent Rome Masters clay match-up in three sets.

This was one of his 13 head to head wins, with the Scotsman taking five.  It's 5-1 since 2011.

Nadal starts at 1.20 and actually I feel that's generous, with Murray surely having fatigue from two five set matches in the last three.  My research shows this has a huge negative effect on a player's chances, and after fairly recent back surgery, this clearly is going to have a big part to play today.  

Price range history indicates 3-1 Nadal would be a good bet but my issue with that is that I'm not even convinced Murray can take a set - I feel he needs to take the first set to have any chance today.

Projected holds are lower than the Djokovic/Gulbis match with Nadal's just around ATP clay mean, with Murray's low.  Laying the Scotsman's serve when the set is on serve is viable, if the price allows.  Realistically that's going to be when he has a set lead.

Laying the Scotsman a break up is also viable, with Nadal's break deficit recovery superb at 54.4%.  Murray is relatively solid a break up, losing a lead 20.9%, but this is enough to make the trade one with positive expectation.

Interestingly, their three clay meetings since 2011 have produced 30 breaks in 85 service games (64.7% service hold) but their three meetings on other surfaces just 20 breaks in 96 service games (79.2% service hold).  Overall, that works out at 50 breaks in 181 service games (72.4%) which is around 6% below the ATP all-surface mean hold percentage.

That indicates breaks are likely here too, although whether swings occur largely will depend on Murray's start.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

4th JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


David Ferrer has history of having a large percentage of breaks in his matches with Rafael Nadal...

Current ATP 5 set winners still in the tournament:-
(For more information please check out the Implications of winning a 5 set match article.
(BOLD indicates 5 set win came in the previous round)

Ernests Gulbis
Andy Murray
Gael Monfils

Already eliminated after a 5 set win:-

Jarkko Nieminen
Facundo Bagnis
Mikhail Youzhny
Radek Stepanek
Thomaz Bellucci
Axel Michon
Andreas Haider-Maurer
Steve Johnson
Martin Klizan
Marcel Granollers
Fernando Verdasco
Milos Raonic
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

The quarter-finals at Roland Garros draws to a conclusion today with four more matches across the men's and women's events.

As with yesterday, the women's matches start earlier, at 1pm, with the tournament organisers continuing with their bizarre decision of scheduling both quarter finals at the same time.

Trading conditions are good today with low projected holds and high break-back percentages, and there are a number of viable angles for all matches.

Sara Errani starts at 1.38 after shortening from opening prices and I feel that's a little on the short side, but opponent Andrea Petkovic may not be totally fit for their clash.

Projected holds are fairly close and below the 61.5% WTA clay mean, with Petkovic's the lower of the two.  Rolling Projected Holds in today's Tier Two Spreadsheets indicate that her serve can be laid when the set is on serve in a variety of circumstances today.

Furthermore, both players have excellent break deficit recovery stats - Errani has done this 63.2% whilst Petkovic isn't far behind at 59.0%, with the German much more solid at maintaining a break lead at 40.7% compared to Errani's 52.2%.

This leads to a combined score of 111.2 on Errani when a break up, and 103.9 on Petkovic.  On that basis, laying Errani when a break up at short prices looks a very attractive strategy today.

In the other WTA quarter-final, Simona Halep is 1.49 against Svetlana Kuznetsova and I feel this is some value, with the Romanian holding a fair advantage in hold and break percentages on clay in the last 12 months, and having been very comfortable in this tournament so far. Based on the price range history, I can see a Halep win in three sets, with a dominant (6-0, 6-1, 6-2) win in one set at least.

Kuznetsova does have a low projected hold for this, with Halep now having an incredible opponent break percentage of 53.4% in the last 12 months.  As with Petkovic, her serve can be opposed in select circumstances here.

Unsurprisingly, Halep has also recovered a break deficit regularly, doing so 61.3% in the last 12 months.  Kuznetsova has lost a break lead 43.8%, which is solid enough, but does lead to a high combined score on the Russian of 105.1 when a break up.  Coupled with the pre-match value on Halep, this is more than enough to warrant laying Kuznetsova a break up today.

The men's matches today are also an attractive proposition, both from a trading and a neutral's perspective.

Prior to their last four meetings, it would have been very fair to say that David Ferrer was Rafael Nadal's 'bunny' with the world number five having a terrible head to head record against the King of Clay.

However, Ferrer has reversed this a little with three wins from their last four, including a straight sets victory in the quarter finals on clay in Monte Carlo in April, but Nadal still leads 22-8 overall.

Nadal starts at around 1.18 for this which I feel is a little on the short side - I made him 1.25.  

With both players being superb returners (Nadal breaks 41.9% in the last 12 months on clay, Ferrer 39.5%) projected holds are low for this and analysis of their recent previous meetings gives extra weight to the likelihood of breaks of serve today.

Their seven competitive meetings (Abu Dhabi exhibition not included) since January 2013 have yielded an incredible 55 breaks in 156 service games.  This equates to a service hold percentage of 64.7%, well below the overall ATP all-surface mean of 78.6%, and is much more in line with the projected holds of under 70% today.

There are opportunities, according to today's Rolling Projected Holds, for laying either player's serve in many circumstances, and in-set stats support laying either player a break up too, with Nadal recovering a break deficit 54.4% and Ferrer 48.5% in the last 12 months.

Overall, I'd expect Nadal to get through this but it would be a surprise if he didn't trade at least a fair bit higher in the process.

Finally, I feel Andy Murray may not have things all his own way against home favourite Gael Monfils, although fitness concerns abound over both players, and this match may well come down to whose body holds up the best.

The Scotsman starts at 1.55 and this looks short based on the stats which lead to similar projected holds, although Murray has had tougher recent opponents to generate his numbers.

This is a match where the Rolling Projected Holds come into their own, with the numbers indicating that if there are early breaks, or either player struggles to hold, more breaks should ensue.

Murray's break deficit recovery percentage has dropped from over 50% to 43.2% since his return to tour from back surgery and that should be a huge worry for him, and this means that laying either player a break up is definitely not as viable here as in the other matches.  Monfils is surprisingly solid when a break up, losing that lead just 26.6% of the time, with Murray also surprisingly strong at 20.9%.

With Murray losing at least a set in 6/7 Slam matches since 2012 when priced 1.35 to 1.70, it's tough to see a straightforward win for the Scot, and this could be another epic match which - considering both players have already played 5 set matches - would severely hamper the winner for their semi-final.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


2nd JUNE 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS


Kiki Bertens can be laid a break up against Andrea Petkovic...

Current ATP 5 set winners still in the tournament:-
(For more information please check out the Implications of winning a 5 set match article.
(BOLD indicates 5 set win came in the previous round)

Fernando Verdasco
Milos Raonic
Andy Murray
Gael Monfils
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Already eliminated after a 5 set win:-

Jarkko Nieminen
Facundo Bagnis
Mikhail Youzhny
Radek Stepanek
Thomaz Bellucci
Axel Michon
Andreas Haider-Maurer
Steve Johnson
Martin Klizan
Marcel Granollers

The final set of last 16 matches get underway in several hours at Roland Garros, and the market has priced up the eight matches very well indeed.

According to my model, only Andy Murray has slight value on him today, although his fitness must be questionable, and therefore this definitely wasn't much to get excited about.

The Scotsman takes on Fernando Verdasco and is a 1.70 favourite against the Spaniard, who he has a 9-2 head to head lead over.  However, this isn't as hugely relevant as might be initially seen, with only their match at Wimbledon last year (Murray came back from 2-0 down to win) being since 2009.

Projected holds are both a little below ATP average, but not hugely low, with Murray having the edge.  The best angle for this match without being able to assess how the match is playing out is to lay Verdasco a break up - not the strongest mentally, the Spaniard's combined score is 77.8 - just above the 75 required in the ATP to lay a player a break up.  That's mainly due to Murray's excellent break deficit recovery percentage of 50.0%.

The other match which has two players priced fairly close to each other is the clash between Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and the home favourite, Gael Monfils.

The Frenchman is favourite for this at 1.67 and that seems very justified indeed.  I made him a few ticks lower.

As with Murray/Verdasco, projected holds are a little low but not hugely so.  However Garcia-Lopez's is low enough to use the Rolling Projected Holds in today's Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet to look to lay his serve in some situations.

Furthermore, GGL is vulnerable when a break up.  Like his countryman Verdasco, he's not the strongest mentally and this is evidenced by his break lead loss percentage of 46.2%.  This is a very large contributory factor to his high combined score when a break up today.

The other two ATP matches involve very heavy favourites.  It would be a monumental shock if Dusan Lajovic defeated Rafa Nadal, whilst David Ferrer is more vulnerable at 1.10 against Kevin Anderson, who he has lost to before twice.  That match is particularly notable for both players being horrific at converting break points...

There's a fair bit of potential in WTA action today as well.

I feel the Jelena Jankovic vs Sara Errani match has probably the best trading potential. 

As with Murray/Verdasco, both projected holds are a little low but nothing exceptionally so, and definitely not enough to warrant laying the server immediately.  This match could be a great example of using game state, and if both players get broken early, a break-fest could ensue.

This is also backed up by the combined scores which are both high - Jankovic 108.4 and Errani 105.4 - enough to lay either player a break up today.  Errani is better at recovering deficits but worse at holding onto leads, which isn't a surprise at all with her weak serve and excellent return game.

I also feel Kiki Bertens (above, pictured) will have issues holding onto break leads against Andrea Petkovic.  The Dutchwoman will be delighted with her run so far and this will be a big boost to her ranking, and she has a chance - accurately reflected by the market at around 2.66 - today of going even further.

However, for her to do so, she will need to hold onto leads and I'm not sure she is capable of that today - she's lost a break lead 52.0% in the last 12 months, whilst Petkovic has recovered a deficit an excellent 59.0%.  The German has had consistently impressive deficit recovery stats since I started keeping in-play data.  

Laying Bertens a break up should be a strong play today.

This is also the case for Sloane Stephens against Simona Halep, who must seriously fancy her chances of a first Slam title.  

The Romanian starts at 1.27 today against Stephens, who has turned in her typical Slam performance so far (if she could start to do this in low profile events, she might actually get somewhere).  

Halep's superb return game (52.9% breaks in the last 12 months on clay) will put pressure on the Stephens serve today which I feel is very vulnerable indeed, both when the match is on serve, and also if Stephens leads by a break.

Opposing the American's serve when the price is viable looks to be the plan here.

The final match between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Lucie Safarova looks like the match which will be most dominated by serve.  

Kuznetsova starts as favourite at around 1.70 and that looks right to me.  Projected holds are a little on the high side, and with combined scores low (both players lose break leads under 44%) there's no angle to be had laying either player a break up here.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

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