July 2013 Archive


Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Wednesday, July 31st, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


29 July - 4 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Dominika Cibulkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, James Duckworth

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Horacio Zeballos (intercostal muscle), Andreas Haider-Maurer (back), Alex Bogomolov (back), Beatrice Capra (unknown)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Mardy Fish (only one match after 3 month absence), Radek Stepanek (hamstring since Wimbledon), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 months since French Open - abdominal strain), Victoria Azarenka (knee since Wimbledon), Michael Llodra (hamstring since Wimbledon)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

WASHINGTON:-

Michelle Larcher De Brito, Jessica Pegula, Alexandre Mueller, Irina Falconi

CARLSBAD:-

Marina Erakovic, Sesil Karatantcheva, Coco Vandeweghe, Sachie Ishizu

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

KITZBUHEL:-

Jan Hajek

WASHINGTON:-

Tim Smyczek, Sam Groth, Alex Kuznetsov, Somdev Devvarman




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Kitzbuhel:- serve stats slightly favour the receiver, poor favourite success

Washington ATP:- serve stats slightly favour the server, average favourite success

Washington WTA:- serve stats slightly favour the server

Carlsbad:- serve stats favour the server




Todays Match Previews:-


There's plenty of action for us to get our teeth into so I will just focus on the matches I feel I have the biggest edges on.  Play starts in about an hour, at 10am UK time in Kitzbuhel.


Jan Hajek takes on Daniel Gimeno-Traver in the opener and this match could feature breaks and swings.  Both projected holds are fairly low and prices are close too, with both players around the even money mark.  Laying either player a break up should be a good strategy in this match.


I really don't rate Jurgen Melzer on clay (or much at all these days) and he's only won 2 from 9 on the surface in the last 12 months.  His countryman Dominic Thiem is a promising youngster and between two normal players with the available stats, I like the upset chance a great deal here with Melzer who starts at 1.29.  My worry is that Thiem may be a little overawed about facing the veteran, who will be viewed by him as a legend.  Stats-wise, it's a huge prematch lay for me, one which I'll probably reduce slightly with my thoughts on the two players.  


The market has, as I've mentioned previously, forgotten Fernando Verdasco's awful spring (and generally inconsistent nature) and he's way too short at 1.36 against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.  I make him more about the 1.60 mark and both players have slightly low projected holds.  Obviously being underdog, GGL's is a bit lower but opposing Verdasco's serve is an option.


Washington tonight has 9 ATP matches and there's a few matches that are of interest.


I'm going to gamble on the fitness of Mardy Fish against Julien Benneteau.  Of course, if he looks way out of shape I can bail out in play if necessary, but I feel pre-match he is value at 1.83 against the declining Frenchman, who has won 7 and lost 10 of his hard court matches in the last 12 months.  Another reason why I think he is a value pre-match bet is Benneteau's horrific recent deciding set record (2-11 in the last 12 months) and whereas most people feel Fish will struggle the longer the duration of the match, and against a general opponent it's likely that will be the case, here he takes on a player who will also almost certainly have a level that is significantly lower in the final set.  Benneteau has a low projected hold in this too.


I make the prices between Tobias Kamke and Ivan Dodig about right, or perhaps small value on Kamke.  But projected holds are low.  I like laying either player a break up in this.


You can definitely make a case for Radek Stepanek being slight value even at 1.4x today.  Both he and opponent Michael Llodra had hamstring injuries at Wimbledon but Llodra got moved to a seeded berth at the last minute and hasn't played so far this week - whereas Stepanek had a good work out against Steve Johnson.  Added to that is that Llodra has an awful hard court record compared to his superb indoor hard record (4-8 vs 12-5 in the last 18 months) and I like the price on the Czech veteran.  


I also like the chances of James Duckworth in some way shape or form against Kevin Anderson.  Back to lay, various handicaps (or even a gamble on the outright win) can be considered on the young Australian, who starts at 6.12 but there's really not a huge difference between the two players' projected holds which are both high.  Not as big as the odds suggest, for sure.  Furthermore, Anderson had a long week last week in Atlanta and previously in Bogota and I like Duckworth's chances to at least cover a handicap line or to win x games here.


I don't understand prices of Dmitry Tursunov lately.  They are frequently way out of line with my projected hold analysis and I'd go as far to say he is the ATP player that's most the case for.  Actually he has a decent hard court record, and compared to his ranking, opponent Gilles Simon does not.  So Simon at 1.4x is very short based on projected holds, which are both fairly low.  Laying Simon's serve should appeal.


I really like the way that American prospect Jack Sock has taken to the ATP tour and followers would have done well from his victory over Igor Sijsling in the first round.  Today he takes on a favourite of mine, Kei Nishikori, but I can't make the Japanese value at 1.27.  I make him more like 1.40 for this so a lay from the start is a definite prospect.  


In Washington WTA tonight, the value pick for me is Mona Barthel who as I mentioned earlier this week, will be happy that the US hard court season is upon us.  Today she faces her countrywoman, fellow German Andrea Petkovic who since her injury comeback has a worse hard court record.  Barthel is 15-10 on hard court in the last 12 months with Petkovic 7-6.  Projected holds make Barthel a very slight favourite so Petkovic at 1.57 needs to be taken on today.


Both Jana Cepelova (vs Magdalena Rybarikova) and Melanie Oudin (vs Angelique Kerber) have very low projected holds but that's factored into the pre-match prices, which are about right.  I also felt Paula Ormaechea and Olga Puchkova was fairly priced with Puchkova at 1.7x.  Projected holds are a touch below average in that.


Over in the Premier event in Carlsbad, I feel Ana Ivanovic is value at around evens against Dominika Cibulkova.  That's surely an over-reaction on Cibulkova's win in Stanford last week, and I feel she may struggle to follow that up this week due to accumulated fatigue.  I make Ivanovic about 1.80 for this.


Stats make Roberta Vinci value at 1.7x against Bethanie Mattek-Sands, although I feel they may be a little flawed due to Mattek-Sands' recent huge improvement (which was mainly in the clay court season).  I might take a watching brief for this initially, and evaluate from there.


Francesca Schiavone has a very low projected hold against Victoria Azarenka.  The world number 3 starts at 1.13 and has only lost 1 hard court match in the last 12 months.  If it wasn't for doubts about her knee injury, I'd be pricing her up at 1.01 for this pre-match.  The projected holds based on the stats (84.7% to 36.9%) are that dominant.


Sesil Karatantcheva also has a low projected hold but I still make her a little value against Sam Stosur.  Surely the market won't have huge faith in Stosur in-play if she falls behind, with her form being very mediocre lately.  Laying the Australian at 1.25 from the start is an option.


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow.



Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Tuesday, July 30th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


29 July - 4 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Dominika Cibulkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, James Duckworth

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Horacio Zeballos (intercostal muscle), Andreas Haider-Maurer (back), Alex Bogomolov (back), Beatrice Capra (unknown)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Mardy Fish (only one match after 3 month absence), Radek Stepanek (hamstring since Wimbledon), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 months since French Open - abdominal strain)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

WASHINGTON:-

Michelle Larcher De Brito, Jessica Pegula, Alexandre Mueller, Irina Falconi

CARLSBAD:-

Marina Erakovic, Sesil Karatantcheva, Coco Vandeweghe, Sachie Ishizu

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Kitzbuhel:- serve stats slightly favour the receiver, poor favourite success

Washington ATP:- serve stats slightly favour the server, average favourite success

Washington WTA:- serve stats slightly favour the server

Carlsbad:- serve stats favour the server




Todays Match Previews:-


Unfortunately my iPhone has just gone off and reminded me I have the dentist at 9:40am (completely forgot!).  I will be doing quick updates periodically throughout the day, whenever I have the time.


Just got back - will do a very quick update on Kitzbuhel now before it starts...

Bedene v Hanescu, very slight value on Bedene, projected holds both a little above ATP average.
Setkic v Hajek, prices seem just about right, Setkic has a very low projected hold (and has already lost to Hajek in qualifiers)
Brands v Berlocq, prices about right, Berlocq has a high projected hold
Rufin v Haase, slight value on Rufin, Haase has a high projected hold though, but may be fatigued
Haider-Maurer v Novak, more I think about this match, it's a good laying opportunity at around 1.19 on Haider-Maurer pre-match, having retired last week against Seppi.  If he gets broken early or is visibly injured, we could hit the jackpot.  Both have a low projected hold, especially Novak.
Bellucci v Garcia-Lopez, value on Bellucci, Garcia-Lopez has a low projected hold.
Kohlschreiber v L Mayer, very slight value on Mayer, Kohlschreiber has a low projected hold
Zeballos v Granollers, Zeballos certainly not fully fit, in normal circumstances Granollers would be 1.7 or so but I can't take too much notice of the stats here.  Would be pretty surprised if Zeballos won this.

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Purchase the Tennis Ratings Trading Handbook and get a FREE 3-day Spreadsheet Subscription!

Some quick thoughts of the matches tonight - just going to focus on the matches before midnight UK time as I won't be doing an all nighter tonight!

ATP Washington:-

Bogomolov v Kuznetsov, Bogomolov retired last match, otherwise stats would make him slight value.  Projected holds a little below ATP average.
Devvarman v Dolgopolov, Dolgopolov (defending champion) too short (about 1.7 would be fair), has a poor hard court record in the last 12 months. Devvarman has a low projected hold though.
Sock v Sijsling, value on Sock, Sijsling has an awful ATP hard court record (4-10 in last 12 months), projected holds both high but Sock very high.
Levine v Tursunov, value on Levine (for trading purposes only).  He has slightly better hard court stats than Tursunov, but a worse win-loss record.  This would indicate he struggles at key points.  Projected holds both high.
Goffin v Tomic, slight value on Goffin, projected holds slightly above ATP average.
Hewitt v Harrison, prices about right, Hewitt has a high projected hold.
Duckworth v Sugita, high value on Sugita (I make him favourite), Duckworth has a low projected hold.

WTA Washington:-

Barthel v Voegele, value on Barthel, who has a very high projected hold.
Kerber v Falconi, prices about right, Falconi has a very low projected hold.
Mueller v Watson, unsure about Watson's fitness, with value on Mueller (and having qualified) Watson could be a good prematch lay to back.
Townsend v Niculescu, small amount of stats on Townsend but what I do have makes Niculescu value.  Townsend has a low projected hold.
Wickmayer v Cornet, make Wickmayer a bit stronger favourite than the odds suggest - about 1.80.  She has the higher projected hold around WTA average.
Garcia v Tatishvili, both have fairly low projected holds but are close together, very slight value on Tatishvili.
Cirstea v Tsurenko, value on Tsurenko (would have match priced much closer to evens), both have low projected holds.  Could be quite a swingy match.
Larcher de Brito v Keys, prices look about right, Keys has a very high projected hold, Larcher de Brito a very low one.

WTA Carlsbad:-

Suarez Navarro v Ishizu, want to take Suarez Navarro on this hard court season but not sure Ishizu can get the win - however 1.09 is short.  Could be a low risk lay from the start, Ishizu has a low projected hold.
Vandeweghe v Kiick, prices look reasonable, Kiick's projected hold is low, Vandeweghe's very high.
Goerges v Karatantcheva, value on Karatantcheva, Goerges has the slightly higher projected hold.
U Radwanska v Erakovic, prices look fair, Radwanska has a high projected hold
Robson v Morita, prices look fair, both have high projected holds.  Don't expect many breaks here.

Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!

Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Monday, July 30th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


29 July - 4 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Dominika Cibulkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, John Isner, Kevin Anderson

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Horacio Zeballos (intercostal muscle), Beatrice Capra (unknown)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Mardy Fish (only one match after 3 month absence), Radek Stepanek (hamstring since Wimbledon), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 months since French Open - abdominal strain)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

WASHINGTON:-

Michelle Larcher De Brito, Jessica Pegula, Alexandre Mueller, Irina Falconi

CARLSBAD:-

TBC.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Kitzbuhel:- serve stats slightly favour the receiver, poor favourite success

Washington ATP:- serve stats slightly favour the server, average favourite success

Washington WTA:- serve stats slightly favour the server

Carlsbad:- serve stats favour the server




Todays Match Previews:-


I've not got a lot of time until Kitzbuhel starts so I'll be selective and brief with my thoughts on today's matches.  I'll focus on the matches that hugely interest me.


Over in Austria I think Kenny De Schepper represents value at 3.5 against Leonardo Mayer.  The Argentine hasn't impressed me since his return from a back injury and I feel 1.4 on him is very short.  Projected holds are very close and both high.  Laying Mayer from the start can be considered.  


Marcel Granollers is 1.13 against the Croatian wildcard, Mate Pavic.  Just based on the stats I feel this is short and when you consider Granollers has singles and doubles points to defend in Montreal next week this has got to be a lay from the start.  Rarely does the Spaniard do things easily.


Adrian Ungur has a horrific ATP record in recent times (0-7 in 12 months, 1-10 in 2 years) and I can't see him causing Albert Montanes too many problems today.  Montanes actually may be slight value at 1.28 and backing him a break down should be a good entry point.  Ungur has a low projected hold.


Andrey Kuznetsov was a feature of my young players to watch articles and I commented on him needing to convert his Challenger record to the ATP tour.  What better opportunity against the young Austrian wildcard, Dominic Thiem?  However I don't really make him value at 1.40 although Thiem has a low projected hold.  Laying either player on serve selectively here could work - a theme of Kuznetsov in the ATP so far has been an inability to win key points so bear that in mind...


There should be breaks in the match between Antonio Veic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver.  Both have very low projected holds, particularly Veic who has to have one of the weakest serves in the men's game.  Laying either player's serve, or opposing them a break up should have high long term expected value.


Over in Washington, I'm surprised to see Somdev Devvarman 2.2 underdog against Rhyne Williams, as I made him favourite.  My stats have his as the higher projected hold around the ATP mean, and much more likely to win the key points, which a huge projected break point save percentage.


As with Horacio Zeballos in Kitzbuhel, it's complete guesswork as to how fit Mardy Fish will be against Matt Ebden.  I don't rate the Australian at all and a fit Fish would be 1.1x.  If Fish starts well but doesn't nick an early break, the 1.7 on him is huge.  He started well against Michael Russell last week in Atlanta but faded, so if you do back him early, I'd strongly advise greening up should he get a break up, or take the first set.  A watching brief is recommended to start with.


David Goffin has a low projected hold against Yen-Hsun Lu, and I'm surprised to see Lu as generously priced as 1.87.  I make him 1.63, so opposing the Goffin serve when I can is mandatory.


I will be interested to see Sam Groth's serving stats against Denis Kudla after the match tonight.  I feel his reputation as a huge server may well see him being a good risk/reward for opposing on serve tonight.  With Kudla having good return stats, Groth's serve could be pressurised.  Despite his reputation, Groth has only held 80.2% on hard courts in Challengers in the last year, winning 11 of 22 matches.  Clearly that percentage would be a fair bit lower in the higher level ATP Tour as well.  An interesting match in prospect...


Lukas Lacko has come into some form lately, winning a Challenger on hard courts in Granby (Canada) a fortnight ago.  His opponent, Alejandro Falla, also has done well, getting to the final of Bogota, before a fairly blatant tank last week against Christian Harrison in Atlanta.  I make Falla slight value at 1.80, and with Lacko having a low projected hold, taking on the Slovak's serve selectively must be viable.


I feel the prices between Ricardas Berankis and Tobias Kamke are about right (Berankis currently is at about 1.73) but projected holds are both low.  Opposing the player a break up can definitely be considered, as well as just generally opposing either player's serve selectively.


At Washington in the women's tournament, I feel Magdalena Rybarikova is value at 1.74 against Christina McHale.  The American has been struggling with a long term illness and her results have been very poor lately.  She also has a very low projected hold and I feel Rybarikova is a great proposition, either pre-match or just generally opposing McHale's serve in-play.


Projected holds are both very low between Jana Cepelova and Kiki Bertens.  In fact an almost blanket lay of either player's serve should be profitable.  I'd expect many breaks and swings here.


I can't see any value on Andrea Petkovic at 1.25 against Jessica Pegula but the young home player has a very low projected hold, and I'd expect her to get broken more than hold serve.  Opposing her serve if opportunities present themselves is a good plan.


Melanie Oudin still has only won 2 out of 12 hard court matches in the last 2 years so for her to be 1.75 against Anastasia Rodionova confuses me.  I don't particularly rate Rodionova either but the stats I have make her a fairly strong favourite.  Oudin has a fairly low projected hold, so coupled with the fact she is no value, means that opposing her serve when possible is something I want to do.


Over in Carlsbad, the courts should play pretty fast (check out my tournament previews for stats on this Tournament Previews 29 July - 4 August).  Opposing servers tonight is not viable, in fact the match between Sam Stosur and Varvara Lepchenko feature projected holds much higher than a lot of today's men's matches!  I want to see how the market will evaluate a hold of serve because backing the server in this, particularly when they are losing their service game, could well work.


Svetlana Kuznetsova doesn't have a stellar hard court record but her opponent, Virginie Razzano is more of a clay courter.  However I think Kuznetsova is short at 1.36, and with her coming back from injury could be a lay from the start.


This is also the case for Jelena Jankovic, who I much prefer on clay.  Today she is 1.33 against Mallory Burdette, who is developing into a reasonable player.  I make Burdette a touch of value here.


Monica Puig doesn't have a lot of hard court experience at WTA level but that didn't stop her having a big impact on grass.  She has huge potential in my opinion.  Today she faces Bethanie Mattek-Sands, who has had a very impressive 2013 and will be a tough opponent but I make 2.92 slight value on Puig.  


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow.



Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Sunday, July 28th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


22nd-28th July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Janko Tipsarevic (Bogota - Colombia, to Gstaad - Switzerland)

Last Week's Finalists:- Ivo Karlovic, Alejandro Falla, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Andrea Hlavackova, Polona Hercog

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Vera Dushevina, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Coco Vandeweghe, Alla KudryavtsevaTereza Martincova, Magda Linette, Kateryna Kozlova, Tetyana Arefyeva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Veronika Kapshay

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Blaz Kavcic



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


5 finals today and the first, at Baku, between Elina Svitolina and Shahar Peer just finished.  I recommended Svitolina, at 1.62 on Twitter yesterday afternoon, and with the best priced main bookmaker closing at 1.51 (Pinnacle), we beat the market.  Svitolina has just won in straight sets, so a nice result for Twitter followers there!

 

Starting shortly in Gstaad is a very unlikely final between Mikhail Youzhny and Robin Haase.  I say unlikely but Haase was a recommended back to lay at 50/1 pre tournament, so those that took a position on him should have a very nice book currently.  I actually feel he can finish the job off today against Youzhny, who starts as a 1.55 favourite.  That's way too short for me as Haase should be slight favourite, in my opinion.  If this was on hard or indoor, it would be a completely different issue, but Haase has a better clay court record in the last year - winning 65% of matches to Youzhny's 58%, holding 81.3% to 73.8%, and breaking only slightly less (23.5% to 25.7%).  Youzhny does have a dominant 4-0 head to head lead (3-0 since 2012) but only one of those was on Haase's favoured clay surface.  I see no reason for such favourtism on the Russian.


Both projected holds are slightly above the ATP mean.  Haase's percentage is in the low 80's and he also has a high projected break point save percentage.  Perhaps backing him when losing on serve is viable (at specified points in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook) and potentially opposing Youzhny on serve very selectively, could be the way forward.

  

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In the Umag final, Fabio Fognini is bidding to win three consecutive tournaments in three consecutive weeks - an incredible achievement.  The bookmakers make him favourite to do so, priced at 1.65.  I make that a little short but not excessively, and his status of favourite is justified.  His opponent, Tommy Robredo, has had an excellent clay court year as well though, and will be a tough adversary today.  I feel this match has a very high chance of featuring breaks and swings - opposing either player's serve selectively would be a decent plan, and laying the player a break up is another.  


That's an approach that wouldn't be too recommended in Atlanta, where the big serving top two seeds, John Isner and Kevin Anderson, meet in the final.  Isner, in his home country, starts at 1.88 and I feel that he's the wrong favourite.  Anderson does have the slightly weaker serve but a much improved return game and this could be crucial here.  However my worry is that tiebreaks are likely and Isner's record in those is much the superior - 75% to 56% in the last 12 months.  If you are unaware, 75% is a truly unbelievable tiebreak win percentage and makes him the best on the ATP Tour in tiebreaks for players with a reasonable sample.  I feel that Anderson has to go full tilt on Isner's serve to try and reduce the chances of tiebreaks, where he'd be a big underdog.  It's tough to recommend a course of action for this match - backing Anderson on serve when losing in the game (as Haase) should have a long term positive expected value.  More high risk is laying Isner from the start and getting out at a tiebreak, but if Anderson breaks (more likely) the rewards are as big as the risks.  Not one for the faint hearted there!


Finally in Stanford, Agnieska Radwanska, the tournament's top seed, faces Dominika Cibulkova.  Radwanska starts at 1.33 which I feel is short.  I made her 1.44 for this so there's slight value on Cibulkova, in my opinion.  Projected holds obviously give Radwanska the edge, with her's slightly above WTA average.  Cibulkova's is below it and I feel may struggle to hold consistently.  For her to win this she needs to pressure the Radwanska serve a lot and break on a regular basis.  Perhaps laying Radwanska pre-match could work, but I definitely wouldn't recommend a large stake on it.  


Check back later for previews for next week's tournaments and good luck in the markets!



Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Saturday, July 27th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


22nd-28th July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Janko Tipsarevic (Bogota - Colombia, to Gstaad - Switzerland)

Last Week's Finalists:- Ivo Karlovic, Alejandro Falla, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Andrea Hlavackova, Polona Hercog

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Vera Dushevina, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Coco Vandeweghe, Alla KudryavtsevaTereza Martincova, Magda Linette, Kateryna Kozlova, Tetyana Arefyeva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Veronika Kapshay

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Blaz Kavcic



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


I've just got back from watching last night's Darts in Blackpool and it's unlikely I will trade today, despite the Umag card looking very enticing.  Got a few things around the house to take care of and also we've got family coming over.  So today's previews will be short recommendations:-


Umag:-


Monfils v Fognini - Monfils pre-match value at 2.66, projected holds are very close and pretty low.  Breaks and swings very possible.


Robredo v Seppi - Robredo pre-match value at 1.59, projected holds low but Seppi's very low.  Opposing Seppi definitely appears viable.  Breaks and swings again likely.


Atlanta:-


Isner v Hewitt - Hewitt pre-match value at 2.20, projected holds very high (over 90%) and almost the same.  Even the 'less good' version of Hewitt seems capable of coping with Isner, leading head to head 5-1 and 2-1 in the last year or so.  I make Hewitt slight favourite.  Backing him on serve when losing at certain points specified in my handbook seems a good plan.


R Harrison v Anderson - prices about right prematch with Anderson favourite at 1.45.  Projected holds are high, particularly Anderson's.


Stanford:-


Cibulkova v Cirstea - slight value on Cibulkova at 2.04.  She edges the projected holds which are around WTA mean (Cirstea's is a touch below) Opposing Cirstea's serve selectively appears slight value.


A Radwanska v Hampton - Hampton great value at 3.25.  I expect this to be much closer than the odds suggest and not at all easy for the top seed.  Projected holds are close and around WTA means again.  Opposing Radwanska's serve selectively would appear a reasonable call, or even laying her from the start at around 1.40-1.45.  


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow.






Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Friday, July 26th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


22nd-28th July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Janko Tipsarevic (Bogota - Colombia, to Gstaad - Switzerland)

Last Week's Finalists:- Ivo Karlovic, Alejandro Falla, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Andrea Hlavackova, Polona Hercog

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Vera Dushevina, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Coco Vandeweghe, Alla KudryavtsevaTereza Martincova, Magda Linette, Kateryna Kozlova, Tetyana Arefyeva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Veronika Kapshay

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Blaz Kavcic



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


Good morning!  Another early start and there's 2 matches already played in Baku.  


In the next match, Ons Jabeur plays Magda Linette in a quarter final that illustrates the weakness of the tournament field in Azerbaijan.  Jabeur starts at around 1.60 and for me that's short.  I don't have the biggest sample size on either player so won't get too involved financially but I make Linette the value.  She has the better projected hold, with Jabeur's being a fair bit below WTA average.  However Jabeur has a much better projected break point hold percentage so may win more than her fair share of key points.  Ideally I will oppose Jabeur's serve when possible but I will be cautious and probably remove my liability at least on break points.


I make the prices of 1.73 on Galina Voskoboeva against Alexandra Cadantu about right.  Cadantu has a pretty low projected hold though, so I will attempt to oppose that selectively.  Laying her a break up is a reasonable strategy.


In Gstaad, I think Juan Monaco is a touch of value at 1.50 against Mikhail Youzhny.  I've mentioned before I don't particularly rate the Russian on the dirt and I will be looking to oppose his serve, which has a low projected hold, whenever I can in this.


Projected holds are high between Daniel Brands and Victor Hanescu.  There's possibly some small value on the Romanian at 2.10 but it's not huge.  It will be interesting to see Brands' level after yesterday's upset of Roger Federer, with me proving that the after effects of a big win don't exist.  


I make Robin Haase value again, this time against Marcel Granollers.  Granollers starts at 1.67 and that would be a fair price on Haase, in my opinion.  I will have no choice but to oppose Granollers, whose projected hold is a touch below ATP average, selectively in this.  I'll use some triggers to get some lays in on his serve.


Prices look fair between Stan Wawrinka and Feliciano Lopez.  Projected holds are high but Wawrinka's is very high - with the Swiss also having a high projected break point save, I like backing Wawrinka when losing on a service game at selected points (statistically highlighted in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook).


In Umag this afternoon, projected holds are low.  It wouldn't surprise me to see breaks and swings in all four matches.


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One day Fabio Fognini will lose and maybe against a competent clay courter in Martin Klizan, it could be today.  The Italian, who has won his last two tournaments in the last fortnight, starts at 1.50 and that's a little short for me.  Both players have a low projected hold and Klizan's is especially low, but that's reflected in the price.  Opposing either players' serve works for me, and laying the player a break up (especially Fognini) appeals.


Andreas Seppi still has only won 5 clay court matches in the last 12 months but starts at 1.46 against Horacio Zeballos.  Even taking into account Zeballos' poor record in Europe that is way too short in what could be a very competitive match.  Projected holds are both low and Seppi's especially so - in the last 12 months on clay he's held just 66.3% (and that includes yesterday's virtual walkover against Haider-Maurer!) and that's just not good enough.  Laying his serve as much as viably possible is mandatory for me.


Gael Monfils has lost four of five matches against Albert Montanes who I felt was highly impressive against Richard Gasquet in the second round.  Monfils has gone back to his inconsistent self after several excellent months but I feel there has been an over-reaction to the head to head and Montanes' last performance in the prices.  I make 1.68 on Monfils good value and I recommend laying Montanes' serve where possible.


Who knows how much Viktor Troicki was trying in his match against Tommy Robredo yesterday?  The Spaniard now takes on Aljaz Bedene who impressed against a very lacklustre Alexandr Dolgopolov last night.  Robredo has been short this week and I feel he is again at 1.40 - I make him more like 1.65 for this.  Projected holds are both low - I like opposing Robredo's serve selectively in this.


I won't be trading tonight as I'm off to the darts in Blackpool.  So I'll just highlight the value bets/who I'd be on trading for this evening's matches in the USA.


Lepchenko (6.1) vs A. Radwanska

Hampton (1.56) vs Dushevina

Dodig (1.91) vs Hewitt

Blake (3.16) vs Isner

Giraldo (2.33) vs Harrison

Istomin (3.25) vs Anderson


Good luck in the markets!





Thursday, July 25th, 2013


A new article has been added!  Click on the Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? link.


22nd-28th July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Janko Tipsarevic (Bogota - Colombia, to Gstaad - Switzerland)

Last Week's Finalists:- Ivo Karlovic, Alejandro Falla, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Andrea Hlavackova, Polona Hercog

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Vera Dushevina, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Coco Vandeweghe, Alla Kudryavtseva, Tereza Martincova, Magda Linette, Kateryna Kozlova, Tetyana Arefyeva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Veronika Kapshay

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Blaz Kavcic



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


Just 5 matches in Baku today and 4 in Gstaad and I'm going to focus on the matches there that interest me now, before updating again later with the afternoon/evening matches in Umag and the USA. (NOW UPDATED)


Tereza Martincova takes on Tadeja Majeric and I expect breaks.  Both players have a low projected hold, particularly Majeric.  I feel the market has priced Majeric about 1.50 due to her ranking as opposed to her results.  Martincova may be 18 but in the matches she has played her stats have been good.  I want to oppose Majeric when possible here but at the moment only £7,000 has been matched pre-match on Betfair (5 minutes before the start) so liquidity doesn't look like it's going to be fantastic.


The match between Elena Svitolina and Nastassya Burnett appears better priced, with there being perhaps some small value on the Italian at 2.30 but nothing that stands out.  Both have low projected holds too, and I feel there is a great chance of many breaks and swings here.  Opposing either when a break up definitely appears viable, as does just generally opposing their serve.


This is exactly the same situation for the match between Chanelle Scheepers and Shahar Peer.  Scheepers starts as about 1.55 favourite and both players have a low projected hold.  I'd really expect the Israeli to struggle to hold serve consistently and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see her broken more than she holds.  Opposing her serve in particular should have a high expected value.


Finally in Azerbaijan, I don't know much about the qualifier Kateryna Kozlova but she's done well to get this far, and must be well acclimatised to conditions.  As I have mentioned previously, qualifying appears to have a long-term tournament benefit in the WTA (as opposed to the ATP).  Today she faces Galina Voskoboeva, who is priced short for me at about 1.20.  I really can't make a case for her being this short (believe me, I have tried), and therefore a lay from the start is a move I have to make.  We shall see what happens after that...


In Gstaad, action commences at 9:30am UK time and liquidity promises to be better than at Baku.  


In the first match, Marcel Granollers takes on Federico Delbonis and basic stats make the Argentine a comfortable favourite.  He was outstanding last week but I'm dubious about how much longer he can keep that run going.  Surely fatigue must be a factor sooner or later.  I've made no secret that I don't particularly rate Granollers on clay and even taking into account Delbonis' potential tiredness, I still feel he is value at around 2.10.  I want to try and oppose Granollers here - with him being no value in my opinion, and a low-mid projected hold, I will try and use some selective triggers to lay his serve, but I'll have to be very choosy there. 


I can't find an edge between Victor Hanescu and Roberto Bautista-Agut.  The match appears well priced and both players have average projected holds.  One thing I've noticed is that Bautista-Agut struggles to keep a break lead so that may be an avenue to go down.  I've started compiling stats on that but it's early days there - much better sample size is required before I can state that definitively.  Moving on...


I make Robin Haase favourite against Janko Tipsarevic.  However, the bookies, who appear to have priced this match on reputation and ranking as opposed to recent clay record, make Tipsarevic 1.80...


Haase edges the projected holds which are slightly above ATP average.  Subjectively, backing him when losing in a service game doesn't appeal, but mathematically it makes sense.


Finally I'm taking on the legend again.  Roger Federer is no longer the player he was and was never a superb clay courter even at his peak.  1.13 about him against Daniel Brands is far too short, even though Brands is nothing special.  He took a set off Federer last week in Hamburg and there's no reason why he can't do that again, or even more.  A low risk lay of Federer from the start appears reasonable, and then we will see what develops.


In Umag this afternoon, I like the chances of 3 underdogs to at least trade a lot lower, if not get the win.


In the battle of Andreas', Haider-Maurer takes on Seppi, and I like the chances of the Austrian in this.  He's got a great Challenger record on clay and must be confident of an upset against a player who has only won 4 from 12 matches on clay in the last year at ATP level.  Both projected holds are low and Seppi just edges them, indicating that his price should be much closer to evens than the 1.52 that the market has him at currently.  Opposing his serve whenever possible should yield dividends.


I also like Viktor Troicki's chances against Tommy Robredo.  The Spaniard has been inconsistent lately, wearing a snood on occasion and hasn't appeared 100% fit.   Robredo's price movement here worries me though.  He opened with Pinnacle at 1.64 and now is 1.48.  When the price moves against a player with value indicated from projected holds (Troicki here) it worries me somewhat.  I will definitely have to wait for the first few games before entering this.  I want to oppose Robredo, who as with Seppi slightly edges two low projected holds, but want to see if there is anything untoward happening first.


Alexandr Dolgopolov has a good record here but a poor recent one on clay.  On that basis I want to oppose him against Aljaz Bedene, who is nothing special but does like the surface.  Bedene is 2.78 in a match I make closer to evens.  Projected holds are a touch below ATP average.  It's worth noting Dolgopolov has a horrific deciding set record in the last 12 months as well.


Tonight in Stanford, I can't imagine Jamie Hampton having too many problems with Nicole Gibbs.  She starts at 1.29 and actually that's slight value for me.  Her projected hold is high and Gibbs' is very low.  If Hampton goes behind, backing her at a bigger price should be a reasonable option.


Daniela Hantuchova is over-rated again by the market (as usual) and I wonder why based on the comparison between hers and Urszula Radwanska's hard court stats.  Radwanska has won 22 and lost 16 on the surface in the last 12 months and Hantuchova's record is 10-15.  Radwanska breaks 11.1% more and holds just 1.6% less.  With the Pole at 1.91, I know who I want my money on...I will be opposing Hantuchova (regular readers will know this is a standard TennisRatings play) whenever possible.


In Atlanta, projected holds are generally high.  There isn't one player whose serve I want to particularly take on.  So I'll be fairly brief with my thoughts, especially as I'll probably be shattered by tonight and won't want to trade it...


I make the following players value, at least for trading purposes:-


Ryan Harrison (2.00) against Igor Sijsling

Yen-Hsun Lu (2.45) against Denis Istomin

James Blake (1.94) against Evgeny Donskoy

Christian Harrison (8.20) against John Isner


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Wednesday, July 24th, 2013


22nd-28th July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Janko Tipsarevic (Bogota - Colombia, to Gstaad - Switzerland)

Last Week's Finalists:- Ivo Karlovic, Alejandro Falla, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Andrea Hlavackova, Polona Hercog

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Vera Dushevina, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Coco Vandeweghe, Alla Kudryavtseva, Tereza Martincova, Magda Linette, Kateryna Kozlova, Tetyana Arefyeva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Veronika Kapshay

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


I'm updating in two parts today - the morning matches in Baku and Gstaad will be previewed now and I will follow with Umag, Stanford and Atlanta around mid-day UK time (NOW UPDATED BELOW).


In Baku, there are a few matches that interest me.


Out of the early matches just starting,  Eleni Daniilidou and Kateryna Kozlova are priced as pretty much evens apiece and I make that fair.   However projected holds for this both are low.  From my stats, the 19 year old Ukranian has a very weak serve and it's only Daniilidou's poor return stats than keep her over a 50% projected hold.  In her sample, mostly in qualifiers, Kozlova has given 1.13 break point chances per game - which is well above the WTA all surfaces average of 0.79 in the last 12 months.  Moving up to the WTA should see that 1.13 rise generally too - opportunities will abound for laying her serve in the future! 


As for today, opposing either player on serve selectively works for me.


Andrea Hlavackova is coming off a final on clay and now needs to adapt to hard courts.  I'm not sure she will, with a 5-9 record on hard courts in the last year anyway.  Her opponent Chanelle Scheepers is 13-16 on the surface with better serve/break stats and is great value at 1.65 today with those taken into account - let alone the fatigue factor.  Laying Hlavackova's serve when possible is definitely viable.


I made the market prices about right between Elena Svitolina and Alexsandra Krunic but both have low projected holds, particularly Krunic, who I'd expect to be broken more than she held serve.


Polona Hercog is coming off the back of an ITF final and has a poor WTA hard court record anyway.  Galina Voskoboeva's record is a little better and I make her the value at 1.7 today.  Hercog's projected hold is a touch below WTA average, whereas Voskoboeva's is high.


I'm not sure what the bookies were on when they opened Alexandra Cadantu at 1.57 against Mandy Minella as this match is not being played on clay!  I made Minella slight favourite and I'm surprised the lines haven't moved.  Maybe I'm missing something but Minella has the best of two bad hard court records (6-7 vs 3-5 win-loss record), she's held more (63.8% vs 51.2%) and broken only marginally less (32.9% vs 35.5%) in the last year.  


Unsurprisingly Cadantu has a low projected hold which means, coupled with the wrong (in my eyes) price, that I will be laying her serve whenever I can.


Out of the four matches in Gstaad today there's only two that interest me.


Pablo Andujar will be viewing this as an opportunity to get more ranking points before the clay season ends and I'm not convinced of Mikhail Youzhny's ability, or consistency on the dirt.  Andujar is underdog, at around 2.4, and I made him slight favourite for this.  He edges two average projected holds.  Opposing Youzhny in some way, shape or form has to be the way forward here.  


I feel the bookies have it well priced with Juan Monaco 1.36 favourite against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and it's GGL with a very low projected hold in this.  Monaco has broken an astonishing 36.1% of his opponent's serves in the last 12 months and it's very unrealistic to expect GGL to hold consistently here.  Opposing his serve when his SP is low surely will yield dividends.


The action starts at 4pm on clay in Umag with Leonardo Mayer facing Martin Klizan in the first match.  I feel the bookmakers have it right making Klizan favourite at around the 1.60 mark.  However Mayer does have the lower projected hold (both are below ATP average) and if it wasn't for his impressive stats on break points, his other hold/break stats would make him ranked a fair bit outside the top 100.  Laying Mayer selectively on his serve should yield dividends.


If Fabio Fognini plays to his recent ability then Thiemo De Bakker will have no chance today.  However if Fognini played to that ability then he would be a top 5-10 clay courter in the world and clearly he isn't.  I can't see him sustaining that form forever and I feel the market may be aware of that today.  Should he start badly the market will panic.  At 1.40, I can't make him value considering the amount of tennis he's played in the past fortnight and his previous propensity to 'not be totally motivated' after previous tournament deep runs.  At some point I will oppose Fognini.  1.40 is a little chunky to lay pre-match although that strategy is pretty solid.  With his projected hold slightly below ATP average for this match I think opposing his first couple of service games is also viable.  


Perhaps there's slight value on Blaz Kavcic as an underdog against Gael Monfils.  However his projected hold is low, although Monfils' is a little below average too.  Opposing either on serve selectively could be a decent strategy, although one where the edges aren't huge.


Richard Gasquet is the player to beat in Switzerland this week and is around 1.25 to beat Albert Montanes tonight.  The Spanish clay courter has had a reasonable season despite declining stats but I can't see him getting past the top seed here.  Opposing Montanes when leading by a break has to be a decent strategy with Gasquet breaking 29.3% on clay in the last year and that contributes to Montanes' low projected hold.


Tonight in Atlanta we have 5 early matches in the UK evening before Mardy Fish and Michael Russell continue their match which was postponed during the second set last night.


Ivo Karlovic is another player who has played a lot of tennis lately and also a fair bit of travelling.  He's 1.67 to beat the mediocre Australian, a player I really don't rate, Matt Ebden.  Both players have very high projected holds but I make the prices about right.  Backing either player when losing on their serve at the specific points illustrated in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook should be viable.


Alejandro Falla was beaten by Karlovic in the final of Bogota last week and again may be fatigued.  Today he takes on the young American, Christian Harrison, who has an unimpressive Challenger record currently.  However I feel Falla, at 1.33, is short and bearing in mind his inconsistency as well, must be opposed here.  Either a lay from the start or opposing his serve on occasion should be considered, and whilst he is value, Harrison has a very low projected hold too and it could even be considered viable to oppose his serve as well.


Lleyton Hewitt has a very average hard court record in the last year, and whilst I don't particularly rate his opponent, Rhyne Williams, I feel that the Australian is short at 1.35 here in a match with two high projected holds.  A lay from the start could be considered.


I discussed yesterday, briefly, that I felt Tim Smyczek may be slightly overawed at taking on one of the US statesmen of tennis, James Blake, and I make the veteran value at around evens.  He's clearly in decline but even considering that, the stats make him great value as I have him about 1.55 or so.  Smyczek has a low projected hold, and Blake's is fairly high.  Laying Smyczek's serve whenever possible should be profitable, in the long run.


In a match where projected holds are around ATP average, I make Ricardas Berankis the value at around 3.00 against Ivan Dodig.  This should be tighter than the odds suggest.  It wouldn't surprise me if this went over games with 2 tight sets, or even 3 sets.


Just the 3 ladies matches in Stanford tonight and two are of interest.


Both Sorana Cirstea and Coco Vandeweghe have above average projected holds but it's Vandeweghe with a definite edge.  However she starts at 2.35 which is good value considering I made her 1.90.  The American has an excellent record here and got to the final last year.  


Agnieszka Radwanska hasn't had the best of seasons but 1.20 or so is a fair price against Francesca Schiavone, who has a terrible 4-10 record on hard courts in the last 12 months.  To illustrate the uselessness of old head to head records, Schiavone lead 4-0 when these two played in March 2011 (matches from 2006-2010 with 3 from 2006-2008) and then Radwanska has rattled off three consecutive victories.  It's highly likely I will be opposing Schiavone almost always on hard courts this season unless she shows signs of improvement, which I doubt will happen considering her general trend is declining.  


Schiavone has a very low projected hold so if she is leading I will attempt to oppose her serve whenever possible.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Tuesday, July 23rd, 2013


22nd-28th July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Janko Tipsarevic (Bogota - Colombia, to Gstaad - Switzerland)

Last Week's Finalists:- Ivo Karlovic, Alejandro Falla, Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Andrea Hlavackova, Polona Hercog

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Vera Dushevina, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Coco Vandeweghe, Alla Kudryavtseva, Tereza Martincova, Magda Linette, Kateryna Kozlova, Tetyana Arefyeva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Veronika Kapshay

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


Apologies for the late update today.  I had to drive to Grimsby to meet Mrs. TennisRatings and have just arrived.  You will notice that some work has been done on the website too - the top tabs have been made less cluttered and now feature drop down options.  I've also added a special offer - a free 3-day Spreadsheet Subscription with a TennisRatings Trading Handbook purchase.  If you've been interested in the handbook but haven't yet taken the plunge...there will never be a better time!  Many people have signed up for a free preview chapter using the banner above so if you haven't, what are you waiting for?


The matches today mainly interested me in Umag anyway, and that commences later this afternoon.  There are quite a few 'mug fests' there that could easily feature a fair few breaks...


I'll just quickly summarise my thoughts for the rest of the day on the matches that interest me:-


Umag:-


Haider-Maurer vs Vesely - value on Haider-Maurer, but both projected holds very low.

Lajovic v Montanes - value on Montanes, Lajovic projected hold low.

Robredo v Hajek - who knows if Robredo is fit, value on Hajek, both have low projected holds.

Westerhof v Bedene - prices about right, Westerhof low projected hold (first ATP match)

Veic v Troicki - value on Veic but he's got a very weak serve, lots of breaks/swings possible, both projected holds very low.

Kavcic v Mayer - value on Kavcic but both have a low projected hold.

Lorenzi v Klizan - prices about right, both low projected hold.

Monfils v Pavic - prices about right, Pavic has a very low projected hold.


Gstaad:-


Haase v Souza - value on Haase, who has a high projected hold.  Souza is about average.

Brands v Chiudinelli - prices about right, real decline in Chiudinelli's stats in last 12 months - both have high projected hold especially Brands.


Atlanta:-


Ram v Donskoy - value on Donskoy, both have high projected holds, especially Donskoy.

Roger-Vasselin v Hewitt - value on Roger-Vasselin, he has the higher projected hold, Hewitt hard court record recently is mediocre, he's priced on his grass court form (mistake).

Sock v Giraldo - small value on Sock, projected holds both high.

Istomin v Lacko - value on Istomin, who has a high projected hold.  Lacko slightly below average.

Fish v Russell - who knows about Fish's fitness.  Stats obviously make him huge value but must be ignored here.

Blake v Smyczek - Blake in decline but offers value.  Smcyzek may be in awe of his countryman here, and he has a low projected hold.


Stanford:-


Kudryavtseva v Paszek - prices look about right, Paszek has a low projected hold.

Larcher de Brito v Lepchenko - slight value on Lepchenko who has a high projected hold.

Dushevina v Erakovic - value on Erakovic, Dushevina has a low projected hold.

Wickmayer v Hantuchova - very good value on Wickmayer, who has a high projected hold.

Govortsova v Stosur - prices about right, Stosur has a high projected hold.

Radwanska v McHale - slight value on Radwanska, McHale has a low projected hold.


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!




Monday, July 22nd, 2013


22nd July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- N/A

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Marinko Matosevic

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - N/A

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Atlanta - Serve stats favour server slightly, very low favourite success

Gstaad - Serve stats favour receiver slightly, slightly low favourite success

Umag - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly high favourite success

Stanford - Serve stats show little impact

Baku - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


I'm sorry to say it but today doesn't appear to be the most exciting trading day of all time.


18 matches very spread out from 8am until 4am UK time and projected holds today are generally high.  So we must be very careful with swing trading strategies today, when looking to oppose the server.  I don't expect that theme to continue, especially in Umag and Baku where conditions will be very hot and last year featured a lot of breaks.


I probably won't trade much if at all today.  I've got a lot of other things planned for today unfortunately, so when I assessed today's card, it didn't entice me to put those things off either...


On that basis, I'm just going to make today's match previews very quick, and highlight the players I feel are worth opposing below.


Low projected hold, value on opponent (I recommend opposing the following players serve whenever realistically possible):-


Nicole Gibbs (vs Kiki Bertens)

Ons Jabeur (vs Daria Gavrilova)

Denis Kudla (vs Rhyne Williams)


Low-mid projected hold, value on opponent (I recommend opposing their serve selectively):-


Francesca Schiavone (vs Mallory Burdette)

Madison Keys (vs Magdalena Rybarikova)

Michaela Krajicek (vs Alexandra Cadantu)

Thiemo De Bakker (vs Dmitry Tursunov)


Low projected hold, pre-match price about right:-


Tadeja Majeric (vs Karolina Pliskova)

Leonardo Mayer (vs Albert Ramos)


High projected hold, pre-match price represents value:-


Olga Govortsova (vs Julia Goerges)

Mallory Burdette (vs Francesca Schiavone)

Marinko Matosevic (vs Ryan Harrison)

Dmitry Tursunov (vs Thiemo De Bakker)


High projected hold, pre-match price about right:-


Karolina Pliskova (vs Tadeja Majeric)

Both players in the Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Andrey Kuznetsov match

Lukas Rosol (vs Marcel Granollers)


Other players I feel that are too short:-


Sorana Cirstea (vs Ayumi Morita)

Mikhail Youzhny (vs Paul-Henri Mathieu)

Feliciano Lopez (vs Jan Hernych)


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Sunday, July 20th, 2013


15th - 21st July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- None although Vasek Pospisil has now played 3 consecutive 3 set matches, Arantxa Rus

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Elena Bogdan, Michaela Honcova, Jasmina Tinjic, Viktoria Golubic, Lesley Kerkhove, Andrea Gamiz, Richel Hogenkamp, Anastassia Grymalska

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Victor Estrella, Chris Guccione, Emilio Gomez, Jan Hajek, Federico Delbonis, Blaz Kavcic




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


Just the four finals today as this week's tournaments reach their conclusion.  It's been a good trading week but not so good for the Player Watchlist with some very surprise finalists.  It's so rare for a tournament finalist to get to the final again the subsequent week, especially in the WTA.  So Yvonne Meusburger's achievement should be hugely congratulated.  It's also highly rare for a qualifier to get to an ATP final, although as I've mentioned previously, I would give younger players like Federico Delbonis more chance of achieving this, as opposed to a journeyman player.


We have 3 competitive finals in prospect, with the usual Serena Williams procession in Bastad making up the other match against Johanna Larsson.  The American starts at 1.04 and I can't for one minute think she'd struggle to win this, unless she just couldn't be bothered.  


In Bad Gastein, Yvonne Meusburger plays her second consecutive final and today faces Andrea Hlavackova in an unlikely final.  I don't particularly rate Hlavackova on clay and this match-up superbly illustrates what weak fields we have in this week's tournaments.


Meusburger is for sure a justifiable favourite in her home country with a projected hold that's a fair bit above Hlavackova's, but I feel the 1.36 about her is short.  I make her price about 1.55 so there's some value on the Czech at around 4.00 today.  Both projected holds are low but Hlavackova's is very low - a strategy of opposing either player on serve selectively would work well here, I think.


That's not something that can be said for Ivo Karlovic's final against Alejandro Falla tonight in Bogota.  Projected holds are high in this and I'm surprised to see Falla as the 2.15 underdog for this.  I make him favourite, with a higher projected hold and also should enjoy conditions more in his home country.  Backing Falla when losing at certain scores (specified by the TennisRatings Trading Handbook) on his serve would appear to be a viable play here.


Fabio Fognini has surprised almost everyone this week as he's not tanked an early round match and has gone on to reach his second consecutive final.  He takes on this week's surprise package, Federico Delbonis, who deservedly beat the declining Roger Federer yesterday.  Projected holds are pretty close for this and a touch below ATP clay average.  I want to oppose Fognini, who starts short at around 1.40 for this, and either opposing his serve very selectively appeals, or just a lay to back from the start is reasonable too.  I make his price much closer to evens than this.


I'll hopefully add a preview of next week's tournaments tonight or early tomorrow morning so check back then for further updates.  Good luck in the markets!


Saturday, July 20th, 2013


15th - 21st July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- None although Vasek Pospisil has now played 3 consecutive 3 set matches, Arantxa Rus

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Elena Bogdan, Michaela Honcova, Jasmina Tinjic, Viktoria Golubic, Lesley Kerkhove, Andrea Gamiz, Richel Hogenkamp, Anastassia Grymalska

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Victor Estrella, Chris Guccione, Emilio Gomez, Jan Hajek, Federico Delbonis, Blaz Kavcic




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


No trading for me today as it's a family day in the TennisRatings house.  Despicable Me 3D and a water fight apparently are on the agenda so unfortunately Betfair gets a rest from me today!


I'm not too fussed after a great day yesterday - wins from the Monaco, Svitolina and Delbonis matches especially contributed to a decent result.  Only Razzano was a bad result and I didn't get hugely involved for various reasons (small sample size and didn't back her after the first set due to her inability to hold serve in the first).


I've got some time this morning whilst Mrs.TennisRatings cooks a fry up to quickly write about my thoughts for today's matches.  Actually I feel there is some decent value about today...


In Bastad, I tweeted that I felt that Flavia Pennetta would be too short yesterday for her match with Johanna Larsson and so it has proved.  The home player actually has the higher of two fairly low projected holds and boasts a better break point save percentage too.  Pennetta, perhaps priced on her reptuation, is available at 1.67 and that's definitely no value in my book.  I'd recommend opposing her serve when realistically possible.


Over in Bad Gastein, I made the clash between Andrea Hlavackova and Elena Svitolina evens apiece, stats making this absolutely level.  Therefore the value lies with Hlavackova, at 2.35.  Projected holds are both fairly low.  Opposing Svitolina makes sense.


Stats make Yvonne Meusburger value against Karin Knapp but there still isn't the best sample size on her after her career re-incarnation.  She's 1.85 and I worry about her fatigue after a final last week as well, and with this factored in I make her price about right.  However, she's broken almost at will in the last fortnight and I like trying to back her on the Knapp serve today.  Knapp has a very low projected hold.


In Hamburg, I don't know whether Federico Delbonis has the self belief to beat Roger Federer but the surface only suits one player.  Delbonis has shown his potential to develop into a good clay courter this week and stats make him the value play with the Swiss legend, who isn't nearly as effective on clay as other surfaces, short at 1.15.  After his rollercoaster win over Florian Mayer yesterday, perhaps a lay to back at a low risk price could be the way forward.


Fabio Fognini is in a similar situation to Meusburger, and I'm surprised to see 1.9 available on his opponent, Nicolas Almagro, today.  I make this a very generous price on the Spaniard, and with Fognini having a low projected hold too, he's definitely worth opposing on serve today.


Tonight in the 'Challenger' in Bogota, the home player Alejandro Falla had an excellent comeback win over the top seed Janko Tipsarevic last night and I feel that has lead to an over-reaction on his price today against Vasek Pospisil.  Actually I make the Canadian the better hard courter and even factoring in an altitude/home advantage factor, I can't make a case for Falla being favourite here.  Falla has a low projected hold and is worth opposing today.  He starts at around 1.60.


I don't make there much value in either player in the big-serving match between Ivo Karlovic and Kevin Anderson.  Anderson has a 98.9% projected hold which is one of the highest I've seen lately.  I'd be surprised if he lost - a combination of scheduling issues for Karlovic and also Anderson's ability to win the key points should get him the win, but the only course of action I could recommend would be to back Anderson when losing in a service game (the TennisRatings Trading Handbook illustrates the best points for entry for this trade).


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!







Friday, July 19th, 2013


15th - 21st July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Elena Bogdan, Michaela Honcova, Jasmina Tinjic, Viktoria Golubic, Lesley Kerkhove, Andrea Gamiz, Richel Hogenkamp, Anastassia Grymalska

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Victor Estrella, Chris Guccione, Emilio Gomez, Jan Hajek, Federico Delbonis, Blaz Kavcic




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


We are now at the quarter-final stage of this weeks tournaments and I feel there isn't a great deal of value about today, definitely not as much as previously this week.  


The ladies get us started at 10am and one match I do feel there is value is the clash between Virginie Razzano and Flavia Pennetta.  I'm looking at the Frenchwoman for value here at around 2.6, and feel that, despite a fairly small recent sample size, she should be marginal favourite.  As I've mentioned a lot lately, Pennetta is in decline (I will be writing an article about decline in older players soon), and is perhaps fortunate to be here after Simona Halep retired yesterday.


Projected holds are about average and although I don't read too much into old head to head records, a 4-0 lead in Razzano's favour has to be a positive factor.  An outright pre-match bet on Razzano should have value.


I didn't know much about Richel Hogenkamp until this week, apart from the fact she beat Julia Goerges (not a massive achievement these days) last year. From what I can see she is a typical lower level WTA player, reasonable on return but with a weak serve.  Her opponent today, Klara Zakopalova, is an improved version of that basically but I'm not sure she justifies a 1.20 price based on the projected holds, which are low and closer than the odds suggest.  Laying Zakopalova is an option, and in a match where there could be more breaks than holds, laying either player selectively on serve should yield dividends.


I think the prices of 1.6 on Johanna Larsson against Mathilde Johansson are fair.  However Johansson does have a low projected hold so I will be opposing that where possible.


In Bad Gastein, Karin Knapp is marginal favourite against Annika Beck but I made the match a coinflip.  Perhaps that's due to an over-reaction about Beck's medical timeout (tactical?) but I already factored that into my pricing.  So in a match with very low projected holds also, I make Beck the slight value.  Either player has a projected hold so low their serve can be opposed generally though.


Leading onto that nicely is Arantxa Rus.  I've seen comments of 'the old Rus is back' etc...and they made me laugh out loud.  For those of you who are unaware, the old Rus was no good either!  In August 2012 she achieved her highest WTA ranking of 61.  However in 2012, she held just 53.9% of the time and broke 34.9% of the time - they are not even top 100 stats, so her highest ranking flattered her for sure!  


Today she takes on flavour of the month Yvonne Meusburger, who at almost 30 is having the purple patch of her career.  Where she will be in a year is anyone's guess.  Meusburger starts at 1.25, and actually my stats make that slight value.  I'll be looking bigger before I oppose the weak Rus serve in play though.


I wasn't particularly impressed with Patricia Mayr-Achtleitner against Petra Martic yesterday (or Martic for that matter) and I make her opponent today, Elena Svitolina, slight value at 2.06 for their match.  Mayr-Achtleitner has the lower of two projected holds below WTA average and I will be looking to oppose her where the risk/reward ratios are appropriate.


In the men's tournament in Hamburg, the match with the lowest projected hold is the first today, between Juan Monaco and Nicolas Almagro.  Almagro starts at 1.57 and for me that's very short.  I make this match much closer to even money apiece and I will be opposing Almagro where possible.  For betting purposes, I worry Almagro will win the key points but for trading purposes the value is definitely on Monaco.


Fernando Verdasco will be opposed today.  He's played too much tennis this week and is playing doubles as well here.  Not only that, he's nothing special on clay and is just going through a run of form/positive variance currently.  In the last 12 months on clay he has held 78.1% and broken 23.7% - unremarkable stats for sure, and definitely not worthy of his prices currently.  Today he faces the young Argentine, Federico Delbonis, who I believe has the potential to turn into a good clay courter.  Verdasco is short at 1.44 and I feel he should be a fair bit higher than this.


I didn't find much value in the matches between Fabio Fognini vs Tommy Haas, and Roger Federer vs Florian Mayer.  Fognini and Mayer, unsurprisingly, have the lower projected holds.


In Bogota tonight, I make Adrian Mannarino a touch of value against Ivo Karlovic in (shock horror!) a match where projected holds are high.  Karlovic is another that's played a lot lately.  


In another match where projected holds are above ATP average, Kevin Anderson is justifiably favourite against Santiago Giraldo but is short at 1.47.  The conditions obviously will suit the home player.


I think there could be breaks between Matteo Viola and Vasek Pospisil.  Pospisil's serve is over-rated in my opinion, and Viola has a very weak serve indeed (but is good on the return).  As with the other two favourites, I feel that Pospisil being favourite is fair, but the price isn't.  Just over 3.00 on Viola is decent value, I feel.


This is also the case for the final favourite, the top seed Janko Tipsarevic against Alejandro Falla.  Tipsarevic starts at around 1.45 and this is a touch short for me.  Falla, as Giraldo, should enjoy conditions, and the stats make this a little closer than the odds suggest.  Tipsarevic (like Pennetta above) has much worse 2013 stats than 2012.  


I'd be very shocked if all four, or even three, favourites won in Bogota later this evening.


Good luck in the markets, and there will be more tomorrow!


Thursday, July 18th, 2013


15th - 21st July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Elena Bogdan, Michaela Honcova, Jasmina Tinjic, Viktoria Golubic, Lesley Kerkhove, Andrea Gamiz, Richel Hogenkamp, Anastassia Grymalska

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Victor Estrella, Chris Guccione, Emilio Gomez, Jan Hajek, Federico Delbonis, Blaz Kavcic




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


I'm hoping to build on a fantastic trading day yesterday as the majority of the players I highlighted were value won, and the underdogs almost all took at least one set, forcing the favourite to trade higher.


I'll start in Hamburg again as yesterday, focusing on the matches where I have the biggest edges.  There's not so much of an edge here as yesterday, unfortunately.


Juan Monaco again commences proceedings and today he takes on the combustible Benoit Paire in the first match scheduled.  Monaco, as yesterday, seems value to me and his price today is around 1.77.  Paire is still being over-rated by the market and I'm wondering when this is going to stop.  Hopefully never...


Both projected holds are low but Paire's is particularly low.  Opposing the player a break up is a possible avenue, and so is opposing Paire's serve generally.


I think even Fabio Fognini's opponent yesterday, Albert Ramos, thought the Italian would tank but he came through in emphatic style.  Today he faces Marcel Granollers, and I make the price of about 1.54 on the Italian marginally tight, but not far off my model.  Projected holds are again low and opposing either player selectively on serve should yield dividends.  Again laying the player a break up is possible.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has given Nicolas Almagro problems in the past, and took the first set off him in Bastad last week before the more illustrious Spaniard came through in three sets.  I'm surprised to see Almagro several ticks shorter today than last week, and make him no value for this - quite a bit short at 1.25. Laying him from the start is an option, and so is trying to take on his serve on occasion.


Dmitry Tursunov has yielded us some profits this week with two underdog victories and he could make it a hat-trick with a win priced around 2.55 over Federico Delbonis.  Projected holds are around ATP average and very close, making the Argentine very marginal favourite.  On that basis the price of 1.6x on him is short.  I'm going to try and oppose Delbonis where possible here, and may well take on his serve a few times if I feel the risk/reward ratios are appropriate.


In the women's tournament in Bastad, we are still plagued with sample size issues.  I don't have the biggest sample on Richel Hogenkamp but what I do have makes her match with Lesia Tsurenko much closer than the odds of 1.43 on Tsurenko suggest.  Projected holds are low and close, so I'd expect breaks and swings in this.  I will be opposing Tsurenko's serve whenever I feel it is realistic.


Flavia Pennetta's stats have hugely dropped off this year and I make the price on her opponent, Simona Halep a little generous based on my projected hold model.  However, when I adjusted for the sheer volume of matches Halep has played lately, I concluded the market prices were fair.  However Pennetta has a very low projected hold and I'd expect her to be broken more often than she holds.  So I will be opposing her serve when her price is lower.


Last year's runner-up, Mathilde Johansson, takes on the qualifier and conqueror of Tsvetana Pironkova (to the delight of me and followers), Andrea Gamiz.  Projected holds are also low here and I'd be surprised if there were more holds than breaks overall.  Johansson appears short at 1.36 and I'd make her more like 1.50.  Opposing either player's serve would appear viable.


Over in Bad Gastein, I'm expecting a lot of breaks today.


I feel Annika Beck is very short at 1.28 against Mandy Minella today.  Whilst there's no doubt she should be favourite, I would be surprised if she didn't trade a fair bit higher.  A lay from the start is feasible, and so is opposing the Beck serve on occasion.  Minella's projected serve hold is very low and opposing her serve could work too.


In the second match, we have the standard Arantxa Rus ridiculously low projected hold, and I'd expect her to get broken a fair bit more than hold against Estrella Cabeza Candela, who I make value even at 1.40.  Opposing Rus generally if situations allow works for me here.


I'm a bit torn in the match between Yvonne Meusburger and Irina Begu.  Where on earth has Meusburger come from?  Nowhere to being 1.36 against a fairly competent tour regular in 2 weeks?  I make there value on Begu but I'm very concerned by her drift.  Pinnacle opened at 2.65 and are now offering 4.46 on the Romanian.  I don't worry about market movements too much unless they go against general market sentiments (e.g. players favoured by the market), or against the player that represents value based on the stats (which is slightly the case here).  Maybe someone knows more than me.


Based on my stats both players have low projected holds, particularly Begu.  We shall see what happens in this...


I like the value on Petra Martic at 1.59, making her a fair bit shorter against Patricia Mayr-Achtleitner.  The home player has a low projected hold and I will try to oppose her when I can.  


In the glorified Challenger in Bogota, there's less value around.  I don't know if I'll trade tonight so won't focus too much on it.  


I make James Duckworth value against Vasek Pospisil, in a match with higher than average projected holds.  


The match between Janko Tipsarevic and Ruben Bemelmans appears reasonably priced, although I'd want to take on the Serbian top seed if Bemelmans didn't have a worry after retiring with a calf injury in a Challenger last week.


There may be a touch of value on Matteo Viola against Edouard Roger-Vasselin but there's not much.  Viola has a low projected hold, though.


The best match there may be the clash between two weak servers that the market has priced effectively.  Matthew Ebden faces Alejandro Falla and opposing either player (particularly Ebden) when a break up could work well.  Opposing either serve could be viable.


Good luck in the markets, and there will be more tomorrow!


Wednesday, July 17th, 2013


15th - 21st July 2013  Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Elena Bogdan, Michaela Honcova, Jasmina Tinjic, Viktoria Golubic, Lesley Kerkhove, Andrea Gamiz, Richel Hogenkamp, Anastassia Grymalska

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Victor Estrella, Chris Guccione, Emilio Gomez, Jan Hajek, Federico Delbonis, Blaz Kavcic




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


I'm going to focus most of the previews to the tournament in Hamburg with that venue having about half the scheduled matches today.  Liquidity should be better there than in the WTA as well, although some women's matches were reasonable yesterday.


Juan Monaco seems a little value against Gael Monfils in a match where there could be a lot of swings and breaks.  I feel that Monfils' recent form has meant he is usually no value pre-match and I feel the odds (1.85 on Monfils) should be reversed.  The Argentine still has a better clay court record (20-10 vs 12-7) over the last 12 months, with a higher projected hold in that sample.  I'll be looking to oppose the Monfils serve when I can - Monaco has broken 36% on clay in that sample.


Marcel Granollers toughed out a 3 set win over Thomaz Bellucci yesterday and I feel, after generally opposing him yesterday, I feel he is value at around 2.5 against Andreas Seppi today.  Both projected holds are very low and it's definitely a +EV move to oppose Seppi's serve in many circumstances today.  Granollers has a tendency to let break leads slip or get broken in key moments so it may well be worth opposing him in those scenarios too.


Federico Delbonis should have given followers a nice result as he comfortably defeated Julian Reister in a match with many breaks yesterday.  Today he takes on the Spanish veteran clay courter, Tommy Robredo, and I feel Robredo is short at 1.53.  Projected holds are close and around ATP average and both players should be pretty weak at saving break points according to my stats.


I don't particularly rate Mikhail Youzhny on clay and I feel his price of 1.57 is an over-reaction to his grass court form.  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez had a decent win yesterday over Daniel Gimeno-Traver and, in another match with low projected holds, is the value here.  I'll be looking to oppose Youhzny's serve when possible.


When Carlos Berlocq when an early break down to Matthias Bachinger yesterday I thought he'd tank the match but to his credit he turned the match around after losing the first set on a tiebreak.  I do feel tiredness will affect him eventually and against a competent clay courter in Martin Klizan, he may have some issues.  The prices are about right though but projected holds are low.  Opposing either player a break up appears viable.


Fabio Fognini is one that many are expecting to be less than motivated this week and Albert Ramos is definitely the value for their clash today.  Fognini does lead the head to head record 4-0 though, and with 3 since 2011 that can't be disregarded.  However, for trading purposes I will be laying the Italian where possible.


Ernests Gulbis has been in good form on clay this season but I feel 1.25 against a fairly competent player in Jan Hajek is short.  I have my doubts Hajek has the self-belief to win this though, but for trading purposes Gulbis is short in my opinion.  A lay from the start is fairly feasible, with a view to trading out at a higher price later on.  


That's also an approach you can take with Tommy Haas against Blaz Kavcic.  Haas starts at 1.19 and for me that's a little short against a clay courter who had an excellent win yesterday over Victor Hanescu.


Fernando Verdasco is extremely over-rated currently and the market seems to have forgetten his completely inept Spring, where he lost a series of matches against nobodies.  Roberto Bautista-Agut is no mug and priced at 3.00, appears to be the value in a match where projected holds are low.  I'll lay Verdasco's serve when I feel it's realistically possible.


Finally Jerzy Janowicz has still got a lot to prove to me on clay and I'd favour his opponent, Robin Haase, more if he hadn't had a long run in winning a Challenger last week, and had a tough 3 set match against a mediocre opponent, where he threw away a dominant position and then came back from the dead to win yesterday.  Stats make Janowicz very short at 1.35.  


I'm just going to quickly summarise the WTA tournaments today...


In Bastad, I made the match between Virginie Razzano and Alexandra Dulgheru absolutely even money apiece.  Therefore there's slight value on the Frenchwoman at around 2.2, in a match with low projected holds.  


Klara Zakopalova is short at 1.22 against Alexandra Parra-Santonja.  I'll oppose her serve when possible.


I also expect breaks in the match between Teliana Pereira and Lourdes Dominguez Lino.  I make Lino's price short so will be opposing her.


In Bad Gastein, Karin Knapp starts as 1.9 favourite against Alexandra Cadantu.  However I made these odds the other way around - value on the Romanian in yet another match where breaks and swings are extremely possible.


Yvonne Meusburger may be fatigued after last week's surprise final and she's short at 1.25 against the qualifier, Jasmina Tinjic.  A lay from the start is reasonable and so is opposing her serve whenever possible.  Even though she's value, Tinjic also has a very low projected hold and can be opposed too on serve.  I'd be surprised if there were more holds than breaks here...


Finally I expect Andrea Hlavackova's match against Viktoria Golubic to be closer than the odds suggest.  Hlavackova is 1.65 and I feel that she should be slightly bigger.  Projected holds are also low here too.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Tuesday, July 16th, 2013


15-21 July Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Elena Bogdan, Michaela Honcova, Jasmina Tinjic, Viktoria Golubic, Lesley Kerkhove, Andrea Gamiz, Richel Hogenkamp, Anastassia Grymalska

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver




Todays Match Previews:-


42 matches today and the vast majority are very low quality affairs.  I've seen stronger Challenger fields than in the 250 event in Bogota, and many women have barely played a WTA match.  Sample size is a huge issue this week and I'd recommend small stakes in matches where there isn't a decent track record on a player.


With such a high amount of matches I'm going to be concise and solely focus on the matches that interest me the most...


We start early, at 9am, in Bad Gastein.  The early matches are difficult to price up with the match between Bogdan and Moser impossible due to lack of data.  Kiki Bertens looks a little short against the qualifier Viktoria Golubic at 1.33 in a match which feature two low projected holds.  I also feel there is a little value at 1.35 about Estrella Cabeza Candela against Tatiana Majeric, who has a very low projected hold too.


Annika Beck has impressed me on clay this year and will definitely be confident of her chances of success this week.  Her opponent Shahar Peer is highly inconsistent and is bad more than good these days.  However, with projected holds low I do feel the German can be opposed at 1.37 and I'll also look to lay her weak serve when possible.


I feel Mandy Minella, who lost in the first round of Biarritz ITF last week to world ranked 301 Irina Ramialison, is short at 1.44 against the lucky loser, Dia Evtimova.  Both players should struggle to hold serve and I like opposing Minella's wherever possible in a match that could well be closer than the odds suggest.


I really don't rate Maria Joao Koehler at WTA level (she is 1-8 in the last year holding serve just 44.4% of the time) and today I feel the 1.33 on her opponent, the Romanian claycourter Alexandra Cadantu, is generous.  I'll be looking to get bigger than SP on Cadantu, and oppose Koehler generally in this.


I also think that the price of 1.27 on Andrea Petkovic is short against Petra Martic, in a match with two higher projected holds.  Petkovic has done reasonably lately but has a lot to do to improve to her pre-injury level, and against a competent opponent I feel a lay-to-back is in order.


Over in Sweden, at BastadMathilde Johansson was runner up last year and faces a fairly easy draw in Julia Cohen.  I've made no secret of my contempt towards the Cohen serve in the past and unsurprisingly projected holds are very low.  I'd be surprised if there were more holds than breaks in this.  However despite the fact that I don't rate Cohen, 1.29 on Johansson is not a generous price whatsoever and I will have no alternative but to oppose the Frenchwoman (thanks to my friend Sammy for pointing out she isn't Swedish!) in this.


I really rate Dinah Pfizenmaier but I felt fatigue was a huge factor in the quarter final match in Palermo against Klara Zakopalova, having won the ITF event in Versmold the previous week.  She may still be fairly tired and I feel is no value at 1.64 against a fairly competent clay courter in Teliana Pereira, in a match with two high projected holds.  


The majority of other matches in Bastad have sample size issues but one that interests me is Tsvetana Pironkova, who is no clay courter, against the Venezualan qualifier, Andrea Gamiz.  My stats make this much closer than the 1.20 on the grass loving Bulgarian suggest, with two projected holds below WTA average.  I'm going to lay Pironkova from the start and see where that takes me.


In the men's tournament in Hamburg, I find the home player, Julian Reister, is the wrong favourite against Federico Delbonis.  Reister has a low projected hold and low break point clutch score, so opposing his serve would definitely appear to be the way forward.  He starts at 1.92 but I make him a fair bit bigger than this.  


Victor Hanescu had a decent week last week, getting to the semi-final in Stuttgart, and I feel that has lead to his price being too short (at 1.43) against Blaz Kavcic, who is a competent clay courter.  Both projected holds are a bit below ATP average and whilst Hanescu is rightly favourite based on those, I believe his price should be a fair bit bigger than this in a match that should be closer than the odds suggest.


I like the price of Daniel Gimeno-Traver, in the all-Spanish clash against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.  I made him marginal favourite so the odds of 2.40 appeal in a match which should feature breaks and swings.  Opposing Garcia-Lopez's serve looks reasonable.


I also like this approach, taking on Marcel Granollers, against Thomaz Bellucci.  Granollers' clay service hold stats in the last year are pretty mediocre and I'm hoping the two matches that Bellucci played last week in Stuttgart will have helped him get back into the swing of things after his abdominal injury.  Granollers starts as 1.75 favourite, my model made Bellucci favourite.  


Leonardo Mayer has had a mediocre year and I feel the odds are the wrong way around against Jan-Lennart Struff.  Mayer starts at 1.87.  He does have a low projected hold and although I do have a worry about Struff in key points, I feel that the value is on the German for trading purposes.


Carlos Berlocq won his first ATP title last week and I am looking at taking him on today as per usual with tournament winners (especially those ranked outside the top 50).  He starts at 1.33 against Matthias Bachinger and that appears to be a lay from the start.  I feel one or more of last weeks finalists will tank their first round match this week.


Over in the weak Bogota tournament I've managed to avert the sample size issues by using Challenger stats, although most players are clay courters who play hard court events infrequently.  There appear to be some strange odds so I'm cautiously looking to take advantage of that.  


The 20 year old Facundo Arguello appears decent value at 1.72 against Victor Estrella, who has a low projected hold.  I'll try and oppose the Dominican wherever possible.


In a match where projected holds are high, I think the qualifier, Chris Guccione, can get the edge over Evgeny Korolev.  1.94 on the Australian appears attractive against a highly inconsistent and often questionably motivated opponent.


I'm not embarrassed to say I know little about either Emilio Gomez or Eduardo Struvay with both players ranked outside the top 500.  But the stats I do have make Struvay some value.  I guess opposing the Gomez serve, with a low projected hold, is viable although who knows what the liquidity will be like in a match with nobodies playing!


I wonder how Ivo Karlovic is feeling after a great week on the grass in Newport last week.  He was knocked out of the singles and doubles last Friday and then had a 7 hour flight to Bogota at some point over the weekend.  Maybe (after his illness layoff) he will be fatigued and I don't mind taking a chance and laying him at 1.17 today, even though I know little about his opponent, Juan Ignacio Londero.  The stats I have on the 19 year old make him a little value.


Finally, Xavier Malisse had an excellent grass court season but his form away from grass had been horrific previously.  My stats make him an unconfident value pick against Alejandro Falla.  I think I want to see how motivated Malisse is before I oppose Falla.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Monday, July 15th, 2013


15 July Player Watchlist:-


(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Ivo Karlovic

Last Week's Finalists:- Fernando Verdasco, Fabio Fognini, Carlos Berlocq, Robin Haase, Simona Halep, Anna Schmiedlova, Yvonne Meusburger

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Paolo Lorenzi (left ankle), Ruben Bemelmans (left calf)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- None

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - To be confirmed

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - N/A


Tournament Summaries:-


(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) 15-21 July Tournament Previews


Bogota - Currently unknown as not played at the venue since 2001.

Hamburg - Serve stats favour receiver, slightly low favourite success

Bad Gastein - Serve stats favour reciever

Bastad - Serve stats favour receiver


Match Previews:-


If you've read the 15-21 July Tournament Previews this week you will know that I'm very in favour of opposing the server this week and projected holds are expected to be low.  That's definitely the case today and I'll go through the matches that have particular interest to me...


In the women's tournament in Bastad, two Swedes take each other on in the first match.  Neither Johanna Larsson or Sofia Arvidsson are in stellar form and the pre-match prices which make Larsson a 1.63 favourite appear to be fairly reasonable - perhaps giving a slight edge to the favourite.  Arvidsson has a low projected hold so I'm looking to oppose her if she leads by a break in this.  


I'm surprised to see Lourdes Dominguez Lino as an underdog against Anabel Medina Garrigues.  Garrigues has not had a good last 12 months, with an 11-23 record.  Lino's is much better at 21-24, and has a 14-10 record in 2013 on her favoured clay surface.  Garrigues' clay 2013 record is a worse 4-6, so it makes no sense to see Garrigues as a 1.67 favourite.  We opposed her last week with great success against Dinah Pfizenmaier and we can do the same today.  She has a low projected hold and I will be laying her serve whenever realistically possible.


I don't have a big recent clay sample on Virginie Razzano but what I do have makes her match against Silvia Soler-Espinosa closer than the odds (1.54 on the Spaniard) suggest.  I'll also be taking the same approach with Soler-Espinosa as Garrigues.


I also feel the odds makers have over-reacted to Alla Kudryavtseva's two wins this year over Arantxa Parra Santonja, who has a much better clay court record generally.  Kudryavtseva starts at 1.92 and I feel the market has the wrong favourite here.  If there's much liquidity in the market I will oppose Kudryavtseva, with a low projected hold, whenever possible.


Flavia Pennetta has deteriorated a great deal this year, with a huge drop in her stats.  We opposed her last week and I'm looking to do the same again today against the Colombian clay courter, Mariana Duque Marino.  Both projected holds are very low and I'm expecting breaks and swings here.  Pennetta starts at 1.43 and for me that's low.  A lay from the start is possible, or just opposing Pennetta's serve where risk/reward allows me to, would be a viable option.


Over in Bad Gastein, both Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor and Karin Knapp are priced at around 1.20 to beat weak opposition.  Particularly Torro-Flor's opponent, Arantxa Rus, as usual, has a very low projected hold and is 2-19 in WTA matches in the last 12 months.  Opposing Rus when leading has to be reasonable.


I don't know a lot about Carina Witthoeft and don't have much in the way of stats on her but I'm still regretting not opposing the 18 year old due to sample issues when she got destroyed, price 1.86, by Kimiko Date-Krumm at Wimbledon.  The stats I do have make her serve incredibly weak and I'm surprised to see her opponent, Irina Begu, as big as 1.57, despite her poor form.  This looks the perfect match for Begu to get back on the winning trail, and as Witthoeft has a very low projected hold I will oppose her whenever possible.


Mona Barthel is the tournament's top seed and is way too short at 1.10 today against Chiara Scholl, who I don't particularly rate but I can't possibly have a player with a 3-5 record on clay in the last 12 months at 1.10 against any professional player.  I'm taking a low-risk lay from the start.


Over in the men's tournaments, our first action is in Hamburg with the new tournament in Bogota taking place in the European evening.


The match between Paul-Henri Mathieu and Albert Montanes has already commenced, so I won't comment on that too much.  It's currently 2-2 in the first set.  I made there slight value on Mathieu, but with Montanes having a fairly high projected hold it didn't interest me hugely.


I don't particularly rate Jan Hajek but do feel the market has the prices the wrong way round against Lukasz Kubot - probably an over-reaction to Kubot's Wimbledon run (on a different surface) and the 1.8 on the Pole appears short.  Both players have a very low projected hold so expect breaks and swings in this match.  Laying Kubot when a break up appears a hugely +EV play, and generally opposing his serve should yield dividends.


Based on stats, Lukas Rosol appears value against Tobias Kamke, but I'm worried about his form at the moment.  I think I mentioned last week that I was told he was due for hip surgery but obviously hasn't had it yet.  His results have been poor lately (losing the last two as favourite) and this makes me much more worried about favouring the Czech - against a slightly improved Kamke.  Kamke does have a low projected hold but I'm cautious about reading too much into that.  One to keep an eye on or leave alone.


Pablo Andujar will enjoy the return to clay but I feel he may struggle against Dmitry Tursunov, or at least have a closer match than the odds on him (1.57) suggest.  Both projected holds are a shade below ATP average although Tursunov actually does lead them slightly.  Opposing Andujar has to be the way to go here.


Projected holds are very low in a clash that I'm sure few will want to get involved with pre-match.  Both Nikolay Davydenko and Florian Mayer are highly inconsistent players and anything is possible here.  Mayer starts as a very marginal 1.96 favourite and with projected holds both being low I like the option of laying either player if they lead by a break in this.


Just the three matches before midnight tonight in a very low-calibre hard court event in Colombia.  Projected holds are low in all matches and the player I want to take on the most (should liquidity allow) is Ilya Marchenko against Matteo Viola.  Marchenko is very short at 1.45 and I actually made Viola marginal favourite.  Marchenko has a very low projected hold so I will look to oppose his serve whenever I can.


The other two matches (Jimmy Wang vs Matthew Ebden and Adrian Mannarino vs Alejandro Gonzalez) appear more realistically priced and with projected holds being low, a lay of either player a break up would appear viable.  


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Sunday, July 14th, 2013.


8-14 July Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Flavio Cipolla (Portoroz to Newport)

Last Week's Finalists:- Jack Sock, Michael Russell, Florian Mayer, Danka Kovinic, Teliana PereiraDinah Pfizenmaier, Maryna Zanevska 

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Timea Babos, Klara Zakopalova hasn't quite played 30 game 3 setters but has now played 3 x 3 set matches this week, Fernando Verdasco (quarter and semi finals).

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- John Isner (Knee), Igor Sijsling (Flu), Blaz Kavcic (left ankle), Paul-Henri Mathieu (neck), Alison van Uytvanck (unknown)

Injury/Absence for over 2 weeks:- Ivo Karlovic (Meningitis), Joao Souza (not played since French Open), Thomaz Bellucci (abdominal strain - out since April), Gael Monfils (Personal Issue), Xenia Knoll (unknown)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Alexandra Dulgheru, Kristina Barrois, Guilia Gatto-Moncione, Maria-Joao Koehler

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Jan Hernych


Tournament Summaries:-


(For detailed tournament previews for this week please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link)


Newport - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Bastad - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Stuttgart - serve stats favour receiver slightly, low favourite success

Budapest - serve stats neutral

Palermo - serve stats favour receiver


Match Previews:-


Finals day today and I can't make a case for any of the favourites currently having value.


This is particularly the case in the men's finals with Fernando Verdasco looking very short for his match with Carlos Berlocq in Bastad.  Verdasco starts at around 1.32 and that looks a very high EV lay from the start for a variety of factors.


I'm actually going to stick my neck out and say I make Berlocq favourite for this.  A very bold claim but one I'm prepared to back up with some reasoning.


1. Projected holds make this very close, with Berlocq actually having the edge.

2. Verdasco has now played 2 x 30+ game 3 set matches in the last 2 days and will surely be feeling the effects of fatigue.  This scenario has a very high negative return on investment overall and almost certainly will adversely affect the Spaniard.

3. Not only is Verdasco a fairly large choker generally, he has an awful final record, with a 7-14 win-loss record across all competitions in finals.  Berlocq is much more comfortable in finals, with a 14-9 record.  


Bearing in mind Verdasco's last two matches have had very large swings in them I'd be stunned if he didn't trade much higher than 1.32 in-play.


In the other men's final in Stuttgart, Philipp Kohlschreiber is attempting to become the first German to win the tournament in over ten years.  He plays Fabio Fognini for the title today and I like the chances of the Italian to keep this run going at a nice price of around 2.30.  


Projected holds are around the ATP average but Fognini has a cigarette paper's edge to them, and also Kohlschreiber is in a similar scenario to Verdasco, being a pretty notorious choker and having a bad (7-11) finals record.  With the projected holds being average it's tough to recommend a high EV trading play but one thing I have noticed about Kohlschreiber is a tendency to have his serve broken late on in a set.  That could be something to look at today, and in his matches in the future.


Over in the women's finals, I can't believe even Yvonne Meusburger herself would have backed her to make the final this week, but she's come through a poor field in Budapest to meet Simona Halep today.  At 30 years of age and a career high ranking of 60, surely the Austrian's best years are behind her but she gets a shot at glory against the currently all-conquering Romanian, who starts at a fair 1.22 favourite.


Whilst I make the starting prices reasonable, Meusburger has a very low projected hold so I feel a viable strategy would be to lay her a break up in this, as long as Halep's price has got a fair bit higher.


In Palermo, the two best friends and doubles partners Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci meet in the final.  When doubles partners meet in singles matches there's always speculation that one may let the other win or just generally go easy on them but I'm not sure you can say that about this match.  Both are in their home country and will almost certainly give it everything against each other today - and it's worth noting that Errani has a 5-0 lead in the head to head since 2011.  Surely if Errani was going to go easy on Vinci today, she'd have done it before in those last 5 matches?


I'm taking this on true merits and that makes the prices of 1.35 on Errani look about right.  Vinci has a low projected hold so I'd advise a similar strategy to the one in the Meusburger v Halep match.


However, it's worth noting that Vinci has an imperious 13-2 career record in finals so clearly doesn't struggle under any extra pressure.  


Good luck in the markets and more (with 4 new tournaments to assess) tomorrow!


Saturday, July 13th, 2013.


8-14 July Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Flavio Cipolla (Portoroz to Newport)

Last Week's Finalists:- Jack Sock, Michael Russell, Florian Mayer, Danka Kovinic, Teliana PereiraDinah Pfizenmaier, Maryna Zanevska 

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Timea Babos, Klara Zakopalova hasn't quite played 30 game 3 setters but has now played 3 x 3 set matches this week.

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- John Isner (Knee), Igor Sijsling (Flu), Blaz Kavcic (left ankle), Paul-Henri Mathieu (neck), Alison van Uytvanck (unknown)

Injury/Absence for over 2 weeks:- Ivo Karlovic (Meningitis), Joao Souza (not played since French Open), Thomaz Bellucci (abdominal strain - out since April), Gael Monfils (Personal Issue), Xenia Knoll (unknown)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Alexandra Dulgheru, Kristina Barrois, Guilia Gatto-Moncione, Maria-Joao Koehler

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Jan Hernych


Tournament Summaries:-


(For detailed tournament previews for this week please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link)


Newport - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Bastad - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Stuttgart - serve stats favour receiver slightly, low favourite success

Budapest - serve stats neutral

Palermo - serve stats favour receiver


Match Previews:-


Apologies but no real update today.  Mrs TR has decided we must make the most of the nice weather and go to Thorpe Park!   So obviously no trading for me today either...although after a good week I'm not too worried about that.  I've updated the Player Watchlist as usual.


Good luck in the markets!


Friday, July 12th, 2013.


8-14 July Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Flavio Cipolla (Portoroz to Newport)

Last Week's Finalists:- Jack Sock, Michael Russell, Florian Mayer, Danka Kovinic, Teliana PereiraDinah Pfizenmaier, Maryna Zanevska 

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Timea Babos

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- John Isner (Knee), Igor Sijsling (Flu), Blaz Kavcic (left ankle), Paul-Henri Mathieu (neck), Alison van Uytvanck (unknown)

Injury/Absence for over 2 weeks:- Ivo Karlovic (Meningitis), Joao Souza (not played since French Open), Thomaz Bellucci (abdominal strain - out since April), Gael Monfils (Personal Issue), Xenia Knoll (unknown)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Alexandra Dulgheru, Kristina Barrois, Guilia Gatto-Moncione, Maria-Joao Koehler

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Jan Hernych


Tournament Summaries:-


(For detailed tournament previews for this week please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link)


Newport - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Bastad - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Stuttgart - serve stats favour receiver slightly, low favourite success

Budapest - serve stats neutral

Palermo - serve stats favour receiver


Match Previews:


We start in Bastad at 10am today with an interesting match first up, Grigor Dimitrov facing Juan Monaco.  If you were to assess how the two players have got to this stage, you'd think there would only be one winner, as Dimitrov has struggled to get here, dropping a set to Elias Ymer, the 17 year old Swede in the first round, and then also losing the first set against Filippo Volandri yesterday.  


However the prices, which make Monaco about a 1.6 favourite look about right, with Dimitrov having a low projected hold.  I'll be looking to selectively oppose his serve today, and a lay when a break up looks attractive.


I feel that the 1.9 on Nicolas Almagro against Fernando Verdasco is a huge over-reaction to Verdasco's Wimbledon form (on grass, not clay) and also the manner of the two player's victories yesterday.  There is no doubt in my mind that Almagro is by far the more superior clay courter, and this is a very generous price in my eyes today.   I'll be looking to oppose Verdasco where possible in this.


I also think the 1.92 on Albert Ramos is a touch of value against Carlos Berlocq.  The Argentine has had a very mixed year and I made Ramos a bit shorter than this.  Both players have low projected holds but Berlocq's is very low, and on that basis it has to be viable opposing his serve when realistically possible.  Definitely his opening couple of service games to start with, and assessing from there seems a reasonable strategy.  I expect breaks and swings in this match.


Over in Stuttgart, Benoit Paire is still short due to him being flavour of the year.  As I mentioned in my TennisRatings Trading Handbook, he's a prime example of a player being over-rated due to variance being in his favour.  His stats still don't back up his prices.  His opponent, Victor Hanescu, has caused him problems in the past, winning 3 out of 3 previous encounters and is attractively priced at 2.6.  Projected holds are close and around the ATP mean which means that Paire should be much closer to evens in the betting.


Favourites have a horrendous record here and I'm also looking at opposing two others, Tommy Haas and Gael Monfils.


Haas faces a tricky looking match against the enigmatic Italian, Fabio Fognini, and starts at 1.4.  I make this short based on the projected holds, and also considering Fognini has a significantly higher break point save percentage, I make Fognini great value at 3.6.  Backing Fognini at break point down is viable, and so is laying Haas from the start.


Monfils has been in great form and now is basically no value whenever he plays due to this.  However even at his pre-injury peak he was often very inconsistent and I'm not a fan of backing him at short prices.  1.46 is his SP today and against a competent opponent (as long as he doesn't retire with 'tiredness') in Philipp Kohlschreiber, I'd be surprised if he didn't trade higher.  Projected holds are both high and close and Kohlschreiber also has a high break point save percentage.  Backing Kohlschreiber when losing on serve (the Handbook specifies the best points for this trade) appears to be the way to go here.


In the two late matches in Newport, there are very contrasting stats.  


In the first match, between Ivo Karlovic and John Isner, it features the highest projected hold I've ever seen - 99.4% on the American.  Karlovic isn't far behind and with tiebreaks very possible, the 1.36 on Isner appears very short.  A lay from the start is definitely a reasonable option.


The second match is the opposite with two low projected holds between Jan Hernych and Lleyton Hewitt.  Hernych is an interesting one because in the last 12 months he has a 7-4 win-loss record in ATP matches but has terrible stats, and that 7-4 (and this is being generous) should be reversed based on his hold/break stats.  He's basically won matches he shouldn't and been on the end of some positive variance.  I was hoping that would mean a generous price on the grass-loving Australian but unfortunately that wasn't the case with Hewitt priced short at 1.18.  I'll probably leave this alone.


In the women's matches in BudapestAnnika Beck (SP 1.57) takes on Yvonne Meusburger, who I don't have an abundance of recent stats on.  But combining them with some longer term stats shows that Beck, who admittedly has impressed me a great deal this year, is again a little on the short side in a match which should feature breaks, and probably swings, too.  Laying Beck's serve selectively is a good strategy.


Simona Halep is in the form of her life and unlike some others I've mentioned previously, has the stats to back that up.  Based on her stats/results, the top 10 beckons for her in the future.  Today she takes on the home player, Timea Babos, who has had two arduous 3 set matches to get to this stage.  Don't expect an upset here.


I fondly remember Alexandra Cadantu's match with Shahar Peer in Katowice in April because it was one of my best trading results this season.  Many breaks and swings occurred in that and I can see similar today.  There's definite value on the highly inconsistent Israeli for trading purposes and laying Cadantu's serve when possible is definitely viable.  Even with the value being on Peer, her projected hold is low enough to also selectively take that option on her serve.  This is a match where the amount of breaks could easily equal (or beat) the amount of holds.


Later on we have action in Palermo, and, similarly to Meusburger above, I don't have many short term stats on Renata Voracova, but looking at some longer term ones it makes her slight value against Estrella Cabeza Candela.  However due to this it won't be a match I stake large sums on, but I do expect breaks and swings in this, similar to the Cadantu/Peer clash.  Opposing both serves, especially the Cabeza Candela serve, could be a reasonable strategy.


Dinah Pfizenmaier is a huge prospect but has now played a lot of matches (having got to the final of an ITF event last week) and I wonder if tiredness will get to her.   If not, she shouldn't be underdog against Klara Zakopalova, who was broken with regularity against Karin Knapp yesterday and could well be fatigued herself after that long 3 setter.  Zakopalova has a low projected hold and I will look to oppose her serve when possible in this.


The two short priced home players (and last year's finalists) Roberta Vinci and Sara Errani are favourites in the last two matches in Sicily and I feel Vinci is marginally vulnerable against Lourdes Dominguez Lino today, although I'm not sure the Spaniard can hold serve consistently enough to pull of a shock win.  But for trading purposes where we usually are not worried who wins, Vinci is too short and it wouldn't surprise me to see her price trade a fair bit higher.


I'd be very surprised though if Errani struggled too much with Silvia Soler Espinosa, who should see her serve extremely pressurised today.  I'd expect the Spaniard to hold less times than she is broken in this match.


I hope you enjoyed reading and good luck in the markets.  More tomorrow!


Thursday, July 11th, 2013.


8-14 July Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Flavio Cipolla (Portoroz to Newport)

Last Week's Finalists:- Jack Sock, Michael Russell, Florian Mayer, Danka Kovinic, Teliana PereiraDinah Pfizenmaier, Maryna Zanevska 

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Timea Babos

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- John Isner (Knee), Igor Sijsling (Flu), Blaz Kavcic (left ankle), Paul-Henri Mathieu (neck), Alison van Uytvanck (unknown)

Injury/Absence for over 2 weeks:- Ivo Karlovic (Meningitis), Joao Souza (not played since French Open), Thomaz Bellucci (abdominal strain - out since April), Gael Monfils (Personal Issue), Xenia Knoll (unknown)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - Alexandra Dulgheru, Kristina Barrois, Guilia Gatto-Moncione, Maria-Joao Koehler

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - Jan Hernych


Tournament Summaries:-


(For detailed tournament previews for this week please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link)


Newport - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Bastad - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Stuttgart - serve stats favour receiver slightly, low favourite success

Budapest - serve stats neutral

Palermo - serve stats favour receiver


Trading Recommendations:-


Just a quick write-up today because I've been on the road since 5:30am, leaving Lancashire and just getting to Buckinghamshire.  Mrs.TR has to work here for 2 days and I've tagged along, so I've just found a coffee shop to use as my office!  As I knew that I would be travelling this morning, the daily spreadsheets were emailed to my subscribers last night, allowing them to take advantage of the early value.


So, similarly to Tuesday, with the matches about to start I've just highlighted the players I will be opposing below.


Low projected hold, value on opponent (I will be opposing the following players serve whenever realistically possible):-


Anna Tatishvili (vs Shahar Peer)

Klara Zakopalova (vs Karin Knapp)

Victor Troicki (vs Thiemo De Bakker)


Low-mid projected hold, value on opponent (I will be opposing their serve selectively):-


Benoit Paire (vs Nikolay Davydenko)


Low projected hold, pre-match price about right:-


Both players in the Alexandra Cadantu v Andrea Hlavackova match.

Both players in the Lourdes Dominguez Lino v Natassya Burnett match.

Both players in the Igor Sijsling v Michael Russell match.

Mikhail Przysiezny (vs Nicolas Mahut)


High projected hold, pre-match price about right:-


Both players in the Petra Martic v Chanelle Scheepers match.

Tommy Haas

Fabio Fognini


Other players I feel that are too short:-


Roberta Vinci (vs Polona Hercog)

Fernando Verdasco (vs Jan-Lennart Struff)

Tomas Berdych (vs Martin Alund)

Nicolas Almagro (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez)


Normal service to be resumed tomorrow!


Wednesday, July 10th, 2013.


8-14 July Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Flavio Cipolla (Portoroz to Newport)

Last Week's Finalists:- Jack Sock, Michael Russell, Florian Mayer, Danka Kovinic, Teliana PereiraDinah Pfizenmaier, Maryna Zanevska 

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- None.

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Igor Sijsling (Flu), Blaz Kavcic (left ankle), Paul-Henri Mathieu (neck), Alison van Uytvanck (unknown)

Injury/Absence for over 2 weeks:- Ivo Karlovic (Meningitis), Joao Souza (not played since French Open), Thomaz Bellucci (abdominal strain - out since April), Gael Monfils (Personal Issue), Xenia Knoll (unknown)

Qualifiers:- (Positive impact - WTA) - Alexandra Dulgheru, Kristina Barrois, Guilia Gatto-Moncione, Maria-Joao Koehler


Tournament Summaries:-


(For detailed tournament previews for this week please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link)


Newport - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Bastad - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Stuttgart - serve stats favour receiver slightly, low favourite success

Budapest - serve stats neutral

Palermo - serve stats favour receiver


Match Previews:-


After yesterday's mammoth amount of matches, we are back to some form of normality today with a mere 25...


We still have some sample size issues due to the low quality fields, and we definitely need to be careful with those players, using lower stakes than usual if we perceive there is an edge on those matches.  


In Budapest, I'm looking at opposing Annika Beck against Lucie Hradecka.  Beck has a very weak serve but is excellent on return and is very strong mentally, in my opinion.  Hradecka is the opposite with a very strong serve but isn't the best returner.  However the markets, which make Beck 1.57 favourite, are wrong in my opinion, and whilst she should be favourite, she should be closer to evens for this match.  Her projected hold is average but I'll be looking to oppose her a break up in this, for fairly low stakes.


The match between Yvonne Meusburger and Johanna Larsson should be one with a fair few breaks.  Projected holds are both quite low, and with prices about right (Meusburger starts as marginal favourite), I'll look to lay the player a break up in this.


Over in Palermo, I'm surprised to see Kristina Mladenovic so big at 1.58 against Maria Joao Koehler.  No doubt that the Portuguese will have benefited from acclimatising to the conditions having qualified, but her WTA record is horrific - 1-8 win/loss record holding a mere 45.5% of the time.  There is a big drift on Mladenovic though, and I feel that the market is fearing her motivation due to her playing a doubles final at Wimbledon on Sunday.  This is a match best watched initially.  If Mladenovic appears to be interested, it will definitely be viable to oppose Koehler, who has a very low projected hold.


Silvia Soler-Espinosa is marginal 1.94 favourite over Mirjana Lucic-Baroni but I make her a little more dominant than that.  The Spaniard has held and broken more in the last 18 months and on that basis I will be looking to oppose Lucic where possible.  


I make Dinah Pfizenmaier good value at around 2.5 against Anabel Medina Garrigues.  I really rate the 21 year old German as a good prospect and her stats are impressive.  Garrigues hasn't got the best record in the last 12 months (11-22) and is definitely a very vulnerable favourite today.  Projected holds are both high though, but with Pfizenmaier also having a high break point projected save percentage, I will be looking to back her at selected points (the TennisRatings Trading Handbook specifies the exact situations) when losing in a service game.


I don't know a great deal about Renata Voracova and Corrina Dentoni but the stats I do have make the Czech player value at 1.58.  Dentoni has a low projected hold and I will be looking to oppose her serve for lower stakes whenever realistically possible.


Over to the mens, in Bastad I'm surprised to see Carlos Berlocq so short against Blaz Kavcic.  The Slovenian has improved this season, and yesterday I was worried about his ankle injury against Marius Copil.  However he came through that match in facile fashion, and with Berlocq not being in the best of form lately, I will be opposing the Argentine today.  1.29 appears a very short price.  Projected holds are low but laying Berlocq's serve would appear very viable.


Grigor Dimitrov really struggled against the 17 year old Swede Ymer in the last round and today will face a tougher test with the Italian clay courter Filippo Volandri his opponent.  Volandri has a weak serve but excels on return, and I'm looking to oppose Dimitrov when possible.  The 1.41 pre-match appears short but I'm worried about whether Volandri can actually win this.  However as long as the match has some swings then I'm not that bothered about that...


Projected holds are also low in the other two matches in Sweden, with all four players below ATP average.  The two matches also feature favourites that are too short, in my opinion.  Albert Ramos is a competent clay courter and I make his match against Tommy Robredo pretty close to evens.  Robredo, however, starts at 1.36 and is way too short.  I'll be looking to take him on at various points.


In the last match, Juan Monaco is 1.10 against Henri Laaksonen, who may well be a Challenger player but I doubt whether Monaco should be backed at 1.10 against anyone.  Not even me.  Definite lay from the start for me, although I worry whether the Swiss can hold serve consistently enough to pull off an upset.


In Stuttgart, Martin Klizan is favourite at 1.66 against Roberto Bautista-Agut but I make him a little short.  Both players have a low projected hold and both players are also superb for trading when a break up/down.  I make this match very very likely to have swings and I'm definitely laying Klizan when a break up and possibly a fair few of his service games as well.


German players don't have a good record here but I feel that Florian Mayer is reasonable value against Gael Monfils, who is often short currently due to his good recent form.  I make this pretty close, more so than the 1.57 available about the Frenchman as projected holds are close and around the ATP average.


8 matches in Newport and whilst I don't rate the Japanese player, Yuichi Sugita that highly, he does appear to like playing on grass and achieved a decent win over Jesse Levine in the last round.  Today he faces Igor Sijsling who starts at 1.28, and I think that's short - and I wouldn't want to be a backer at that price.  Both projected holds are low, I'll be laying Sijsling from the start here.


Jack Sock must be feeling the effects of fatigue after winning a Challenger last week but he only needed one set to defeat Marinko Matosevic as the Australian retired.  Even if he was shattered then I make him good value against Jan Hernych, who has a low projected hold.  I'll be looking to oppose the Czech when a break up in this, at least.  Also, Sock has a high projected break point save percentage, so backing him at break point down (greening up if he saves it, closing out with a loss if he gets broken) is a viable strategy.


Lleyton Hewitt starts at 1.17 against Prakash Amritraj and whilst the Indian player hasn't played much tennis in the last couple of years at a high level, he does love playing on grass and particularly at this venue.  This could be much closer than the odds suggest and I'm laying Hewitt from the start.


Another player well at home on grass and in Newport is Rajeev Ram.  Today he takes on Mikhail Przysiezny and I feel the 1.7 available on Ram is generous.  The Pole has a low projected hold and I will lay him when a break up in this.  


Michael Russell's match with Alex Kuznetsov interests me because the players seem pretty well matched but Russell has an 11-0 head to head lead (6-0 since 2011).  In their last match in the Maui Challenger, Kuznetsov won the first set 6-0 but then lost the next two sets.  I feel that Kuznetsov is value for trading purposes but I wouldn't confidently back him for the win here.  Russell starts at 1.62 and I feel that's short based on the fact he is 5-15 in his ATP career on grass.  His hold/break stats are very unimpressive generally in those encounters and I'll definitely be opposing him in the first set at least in this, bearing in mind what happened between the two in their last match together.


Finally, many people favour John Isner for the title here but I feel he could be in for a tough match against Adrian Mannarino.  The French player will be full of confidence after a great run at Wimbledon and a good victory over home favourite James Blake in the first round.  Isner has flattered to deceive lately, being in highly inconsistent form and I feel there should be few takers of the 1.36 pre-match price.  Laying from the start is an option as projected holds are high.  It's worth noting his knee may not be 100% still.  


I hope you enjoyed reading, and good luck in the markets.  More tomorrow!


Tuesday, July 9th, 2013.


Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link) Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Flavio Cipolla (Portoroz to Newport)

Last Week's Finalists:- Jack Sock, Michael Russell, Florian Mayer, Danka Kovinic, Teliana Pereira, Dinah Pfizenmaier, Maryna Zanevska 

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- None.

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Igor Sijsling (Flu), Blaz Kavcic (left ankle), Paul-Henri Mathieu (neck), Alison van Uytvanck (unknown)

Injury/Absence for over 2 weeks:- Ivo Karlovic (Meningitis), Joao Souza (not played since French Open), Thomaz Bellucci (abdominal strain - out since April), Gael Monfils (Personal Issue), Xenia Knoll (unknown),

Qualifiers:- (Positive impact - WTA) - Alexandra Dulgheru, Kristina Barrois, Guilia Gatto-Moncione, Maria-Joao Koehler


Tournament Summaries:-


(For detailed tournament previews for this week please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link)


Newport - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Bastad - serve stats favour receiver slightly, average favourite success

Stuttgart - serve stats favour receiver slightly, low favourite success

Budapest - serve stats neutral

Palermo - serve stats favour receiver


Trading Recommendations:-


A bit of a disaster this morning with the huge workload (52 matches to price up) and my computer crashing halfway through my preparation, losing all my work for Bastad in the process, means I'm massively behind this morning.  Unfortunately that means no real previews today as the matches start pretty much now!


What I've done instead today is to highlight the players I will be opposing below...


Low projected hold, value on opponent (I will be opposing the following players serve whenever realistically possible):-


Anna Tatishvili (1.52)

Channelle Scheepers (1.36)

Irina Begu (1.37)

Eva Birnerova (3.80)

Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (2.75)

Flavia Pennetta (1.73)

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (1.67)

Filippo Volandri (1.56)

Julian Reister (2.65)

Henri Laaksonen (2.08)

Diego Schwartzmann (1.83) - I recommend to wait until De Bakker shows himself to be competitive first here.

Nikolay Davydenko (1.44)

Andreas Beck (3.65)

Marinko Matosevic (2.20)

Flavio Cipolla (2.46)


Low-mid projected hold, value on opponent (I will be opposing their serve selectively):-


Timea Babos (1.75)

Jan-Lennart Struff (1.85)

Blaz Kavcic (2.30)

Pablo Andujar (1.57)

Fabio Fognini (1.20)

Vasek Pospisil (2.08)

Matthew Ebden (3.85)

Michael Russell (1.79)


Other players that I feel are too short:-


Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (1.40)

Anabel Medina Garrigues (1.30)

Fernando Verdasco (1.10)

Victor Hanescu (1.55)

Sam Querrey (1.22)


Normal service will be resumed tomorrow!


Monday, July 8th, 2013.


8th July Player Watchlist:-


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- None.

Last Week's Finalists:- None.

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- None.

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- John Isner (left knee injury).

Injury absence for over 2 weeks:- None.

Qualifiers:- To be confirmed.


For a detailed preview of the week's tournaments, please click on the 8-14 July Tournament Previews link.


Today's Prematch Bets:-


WTA Budapest:-


Lara Arruabarena to beat Johanna Larsson - 2pts at 2.18 Marathon Bet


WTA Palermo:-


Mathilde Johansson to beat Silvia Soler-Espinosa - 0.75pts at 2.10 Marathon Bet/Ladbrokes

Caroline Garcia to beat Corrina Dentoni - 1pt at 1.40 Ladbrokes


ATP Stuttgart:-


Martin Klizan to beat Albert Montanes - 0.75pts at 2.20 Stan James


ATP Newport:-


Adrian Mannarino to beat James Blake - 1pt at 2.30 5 Dimes


BET OF THE DAY: Arruabarena to beat Larsson.


Match Previews:-


18 matches today but unfortunately some I have to discount for trading purposes as the players involved don't have enough stats on them to form a reasonable judgement - especially Bukta, Ymer and Kovlov.  


Markus Eriksson is another player I don't know a great deal about but from what I do have, he could spring a surprise and defeat the 1.18 priced Martin Alund, who is a pretty limited player himself.  The Swede took a set from Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Davis Cup in April.


The other match in Bastad today is the all-Argentine clash between Carlos Berlocq and Horacio Zeballos, who has a poor record in Europe.  If there's any value it's definitely on Berlocq at 1.6, and with Zeballos having a low projected hold I will definitely look to oppose his serve if he trades much lower than starting price.  


The match that mainly interests me in Stuttgart is the clash between two clay courters in Albert Montanes and Martin Klizan.  Actually I much rate the Slovakian as the better player based on the stats but I feel the experience of the Spaniard may have something to say about that (I kept the pre-match tip small due to this) because Klizan tends to find a way to lose matches from a winning position, and Montanes, according to his stats, is over-performing on his win-loss record this year, indicating he finds ways to win tight matches.


Projected holds are pretty low but Montanes especially falls into that category so with him starting as a false favourite at 1.87 I like opposing his serve in the opening few service games and generally looking to oppose it whenever I feel the risk/reward ratios are in my favour.


The other match that I will definitely trade in Germany is one where the prices are pretty much right pre-match but both players have weak serves and tend to get broken back a lot when a break up.  I'm sure most of you have guessed it but I'm looking at opposing the serve of both Tobias Kamke and Roberto Bautista-Agut whenever possible today.  I'd be very surprised if there weren't plentiful breaks and probably a few nice swings in this match.


Newport is the only grass tournament this week and the field is pretty poor there this week.  


John Isner is definitely no value at 1.50 to beat Ryan Harrison, having retired from Wimbledon with a left knee injury.  As you might expect, projected holds are high here but with the risk so low, it might be worth opposing the huge server's opening several service games to see if he is fully fit.  If he gets broken, the market will go crazy.


The other match I'm looking at with interest is the clash between Adrian Mannarino, who impressed at Wimbledon, and James Blake.  The American is in decline whilst Mannarino loves grass and can win as an underdog here.  I actually made him marginal favourite for this but I suppose the market has priced this on location/reputation rather than any kind of reasonable quantitative judgement. Projected holds are slightly below ATP average and due to this, and the value being on the Frenchman, I will look to oppose Blake in-play.


In the WTA, Lara Arruabarena has now played 3 matches since her 2 month absence from the tour and she appears great value based on the stats to beat Johanna Larsson today.  I'm very surprised to see her favourite for this match in Budapest, as she has much the higher projected hold and generally better clay court record over the last 12-18 months.  I'll be looking to oppose the Swede's serve whenever possible.


It's obviously pretty likely that Simona Halep will beat Sesil Karantcheva but I don't make the 1.11 about her realistic.  It's a cheap lay from the start and I'll see what happens from there.


Over in Palermo, projected holds are low in the match between Mathilde Johansson and Silvia Soler-Espinosa.  I make the Swede the value here and feel the prices (which have Soler-Espinosa as a 1.85 favourite) should be the other way around.  Therefore I will be opposing Soler-Espinosa's serve in that match.  


Corrina Dentoni has a 2-15 record in WTA matches and I'd be surprised if she added to her two wins against the 19 year old French prospect, Caroline Garcia.  I make Garcia value at 1.4 for this.  If Dentoni can get in front then I will consider opposing her at shorter prices than pre-match.


Finally one of the worst servers in women's tennis takes on one of the best returners, as Julia Cohen faces Sara Errani.  The Italian starts at 1.05 and should easily win, although I'm not sure if that price represents any value.  I probably won't trade this as I'm sure Errani won't trade much higher but I wanted to mention this match because Cohen's projected hold is 36% - one of the lowest my model has produced lately.  It will be interesting to see how often she does manage to hold!


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!


Sunday, July 7th, 2013.


After watching Marion Bartoli comfortably beat Sabine Lisicki as underdog yesterday (recommended on Saturday's Preview) it's now down to Andy Murray to upset the odds and win his first Wimbledon title.  


Unfortunately the small matter of world number one, Novak Djokovic, stands in his way and starts as about a 1.65 favourite.  Murray is available at around 2.50, and for me that price is slight value.


Projected holds are close and around ATP average but it's worth noting that finals between the elite men's players often feature breaks, so we might see some swings today.  The Serb does lead the projected holds but there's very little in it - enough to make him about 1.85 or so but not as short as the current starting price.


There are, however, a couple of situational factors which need to be taken into account - firstly Djokovic is definitely the mentally stronger player (44-19 in career finals and 9-2 in the last 12 months compared to Murray's 29-15 finals record, 5-2 in the last 12 months) and this will help him in key situations.  He also leads the head to head 11-7 (5-3 since 2012).  However, I do worry for Djokovic after his epic 5 hour semi-final against Juan Martin Del Potro, and Murray, who beat Jerzy Janowicz in 4 sets, may be a little fresher.  However Djokovic is supremely fit so whether that will affect him is up for debate.  I feel the positives and negatives for Djokovic cancels each other out and leaves me staring just at the stats which make Murray slight value.


As for a recommended trading angle - nothing really stands out for me.  Just because it's a Grand Slam final doesn't mean to say I will definitely trade it.  If there's not much of an edge for any scenarios then I'm happy to leave it.  To be honest I prefer the first round of a 250 most of the time!  Possibly laying Djokovic a break up or Murray in pressure situations could be viable but there definitely isn't huge value with either approach.  I'll probably just watch the match as a neutral and hope for a decent match and ideally a 5 setter.  


We get the desired first round of a 250 tomorrow!  Join me then as I attempt to uncover the value in the 5(!) tournaments next week...


Saturday, July 6th, 2013.


It's the women's final today at Wimbledon and in a clash that no-one could have predicted, Marion Bartoli and Sabine Lisicki are fighting for their first Wimbledon title.  It's certainly interesting because generally throughout the year, these are two players I find very over-rated (especially Lisicki) and I'm hoping for some value in opposing them in the future based on an over-reaction to this fortnight.


The oddsmakers have Lisicki as a 1.50 favourite and for me that's short as I make this a coinflip between the two players. Both have excellent grass court records with Lisicki's reading 26-9 (74%) and Bartoli's 50-17 (75%).  Clearly Bartoli has declined since her peak but in those career matches she does have the better stats (slightly worse on serve, much better on return) so odds of 3.00 look pretty attractive on that basis.


We can disregard the 3-1 head to head in favour of Lisicki with it being over 2 years old (and non-dominant) so just laugh at anyone that promotes that as a viable stat today.  Finals records are both mediocre, with Lisicki 5-6 in WTA finals throughout her career, and Bartoli 8-12.  


Projected holds, as you may have realised by this point, are close, with Bartoli actually edging them very marginally.  They are also around the WTA mean.  Lisicki is poor when she takes the first set (25-7 in the last year - 78.12% - which is a fair bit below WTA average) and all this points to me looking to oppose Lisicki at some point if she trades shorter than starting price.   I'd be pretty surprised if she won this in straight sets.  


Enjoy the match and good luck in the markets!  Men's final tomorrow.


Friday, July 5th, 2013.


Match Previews:-


As I've been in Cuba for the last week I'm not as confident as I'd usually be in my assessment of the matches, having only seen some of around 10 matches when I was away.  So I'm totally relying on my stats for trading, as opposed to anything I've watched.  


The two men's semi-finals today are similar in that the favourite in both matches is priced around the 1.20 mark and I make Novak Djokovic far more realistically priced than Andy Murray today.  


Djokovic, in the first semi-final, takes on the Argentine, Juan Martin Del Potro, who has shaken off a run of poor form to impress at Wimbledon.  I didn't see Del Potro's match in entirety against David Ferrer (the swimming pool was much more enticing), so I won't attempt to speculate on the injury he picked up in the opening game in that match.  


My projected hold model makes the prices pretty much spot on, although it's worth noting that Del Potro has managed to win two of the six encounters between the two players since 2012. With the prices about right and even Del Potro's projected hold only slightly below ATP average, it's tough to recommend a high expectation trading avenue for this - perhaps we can oppose Del Potro when a break up (exit point either the break back for profit or at the end of the set for a loss) but I definitely wouldn't encourage large stakes for this.  Perhaps a match best watched.  Djokovic may not trade much higher in this.


The patriotic money is definitely on Andy Murray today with the layers taking no chances for his clash with the Pole, Jerzy Janowicz.  It's not a huge shock to see Janowicz have some success on grass as his big serve and deft touch are well suited to the surface, but it's definitely a surprise to see him reach this stage.  The bookies know they can price Murray prohibitively and still get interest due to his name and nationality and they also probably have large liabilities on him for overall winner too - hence there is definitely value on Janowicz in my eyes.  


Projected holds make this match a fair bit closer than the Djokovic v Del Potro match with both players having above average projected holds.  Janowicz also has a higher projected break point save percentage so we could look to back him when break point down in this match.  A lay of Murray at 1.23 is an attractive pre-match option, with a view to trading out with profit if he starts badly (as he often does).  


Furthermore, Murray may well not be 100% fresh after the 5 setter against Fernando Verdasco on Wednesday - my research shows that top 50 players cope with this better but still has an adverse effect on a top 50 player's chances of winning the match.  


All these factors make me believe that if there is an upset, or indeed much closer match than the odds suggest, it will be in the Murray match as opposed to the Djokovic match.  


If you haven't noticed it yet, I'm running a special offer until the start of the first match with my Daily Spreadsheets being available as a 3 day subscription for the rest of Wimbledon for just £8 - saving £7 on buying them on a daily basis.  


As always, good luck in the markets and enjoy the semi-finals!  More tomorrow.


Thursday, July 4th, 2013.


I'm back in the UK having flown in from Cuba this morning!  I managed to somehow stay awake despite the jet lag for both of today's women's matches although didn't trade them - having watched only a few matches whilst away (ESPN Brazil showed a few matches live) I just didn't want to get involved, especially as I'm shattered!  Normal service to be resumed tomorrow...


Either tonight or tomorrow morning will see some exciting new content added to the site.  I'll be tracking players daily based on the relevant situational factors in their schedule, and all this will be available starting with next week's tournaments.  My upcoming preview of it will explain a lot more.  This should be of interest to both pre-match bettors and traders, as it will highlight potentially lucrative situations which may not be considered by the market.  


Some of you may have noticed at the top of the page a special offer regarding the last 3 days of Wimbledon.  You can now buy (up until the first men's semi-final tomorrow) my Daily Spreadsheet for the last 3 days for just £8.  With there being great liquidity and almost certainly a lot of 'recreational' money in the markets and a high likelihood of 2 competitive finals, this is a great opportunity to try out the Spreadsheets at a discounted price.


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