In-Play Soccer Spreadsheet 12th-15th September 2014


Similar to the break-back concept in Tennis, the In-play Soccer Spreadsheets highlight opportunities where it is viable to oppose teams winning in matches.

This can be done in a variety of guises - a lay of the team winning can be considered, or backing the losing team -0.5 goals or +0.5 goals at half time could be another method.  The in-play goal markets can also be used, backing over x goals when a team with poor lead retention stats take an early lead.

Here is an analysis of how the situations flagged up by the spreadsheets fared for the weekend just gone:-

English Premier League:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 31.80%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 35.05%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 36.81%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 38.36%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 66.85
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 75.17

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 74 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 82 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Arsenal when 1-0 down at home to Man City - a winning trade
Swansea when 1-0 up away to Chelsea - a winning trade
Everton when 1-0 up away at West Brom - a losing trade
Liverpool when 1-0 down at home to Aston Villa - a losing trade

English Championship:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.12%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 33.91%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 42.86%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 45.13%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 72.03
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 87.99

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 79 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 95 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Birmingham when 1-0 up at home to Leeds - a winning trade
Charlton when 1-0 up at home to Watford - a losing trade
Ipswich when 1-0 up at home to Millwall - a losing trade
Nottingham Forest when 1-0 up at home to Derby - a winning trade

French Ligue 1:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 29.91%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.33%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.46%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 43.15%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 64.24
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 81.61

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 71 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 89 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Olympique Lyonnais when 1-0 & 2-1 up at home to Monaco - 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade
Reims when 1-0 up at home to Toulouse - 1 losing trade

Dutch Eredivisie:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 41.03%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 41.51%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 47.97%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 47.83%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 82.54
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 95.80

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 90 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 103 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Cambuur when 1-0 up at home to Groningen - a losing trade

Spanish Primera Liga:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 31.07%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 32.86%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 35.84%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 41.40%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 63.93
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 77.24

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 73 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 86 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

None.

Italian Serie A:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 33.33%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 38.77%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 41.67%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 45.16%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 72.10
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 86.83

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 81 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 95 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Sampdoria when 1-0 up at home to Torino - a losing trade
Chievo when 1-0 up away at Napoli - a losing trade
Milan when 1-0 and 2-1 up away at Parma - 1 winning trade, 1 losing trade

German Bundesliga:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 33.33%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 35.83%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 47.75%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 51.53%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 69.16
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 99.28

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 77 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 108 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Bayer Leverkusen when 1-0 and 3-2 up at home to Werder Bremen - 2 winning trades
Werder Bremen when 2-1 up away at Bayer Leverkusen - 1 winning trade
Dortmund when 1-0 up at home to Freiburg - 1 losing trade
Hoffenheim when 1-0 up at home to Wolfsburg - 1 winning trade

Overall 10-11 in trades for this weekend from seven European leagues - solid results considering the likelihood of teams recovering a goal deficit is well under 50% across those divisions.

For more information please click on the In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets link above, or email via tennistrades@gmail.com.
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