In-Play Soccer Spreadsheet - 8th-10th August 2014


Similar to the break-back concept in Tennis, the In-play Soccer Spreadsheets highlight opportunities where it is viable to oppose teams winning in matches.

This can be done in a variety of guises - a lay of the team winning can be considered, or backing the losing team -0.5 goals or +0.5 goals at half time could be another method.  The in-play goal markets can also be used, backing over x goals when a team with poor lead retention stats take an early lead.

The season got underway early in some leagues over the 9th/10th August so I thought it would be interesting to analyse how the situations flagged up by the spreadsheets fared last weekend:-

English Championship:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.99%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.68%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 42.70%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 44.50%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 73.67
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 87.20

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 80 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 94 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Sheffield Wednesday away at Brighton (lead 1-0 after 40 minutes, won 1-0) - probably a little unlucky with Brighton picking up a red card after 50 minutes.

French Ligue 1:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 29.17%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 34.20%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 38.04%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 42.86%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 63.37
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 80.90

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 70 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 87 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Reims at home to PSG (lead 2-1 after 34 minutes, conceded equaliser after 63 minutes, 2-2 final scoreline).  A winning lay of Reims when leading, and PSG also won the second half.

Bordeaux away at Montpellier (lead 1-0 after 17 minutes, won 1-0) - a losing trade.

Bastia at home to Marseille (lead 1-0 after 8 minutes, conceded equaliser after 11 minutes, 3-3 final scoreline).  A winning lay of Bastia when leading, generated after just 3 minutes.

Marseille away at Bastia (lead 2-1 and 3-1, drew 3-3).  A winning lay of Marseille when leading.

Olympique Lyonnais at home to Rennes (lead 1-0 after 64 minutes, won 2-0) - a losing trade.

Lorient away at Monaco (lead 1-0 after 9 minutes, conceded equaliser after 78 minutes, lead again after 87 minutes) - A winning initial lay of the first goal - common sense would probably prevent the second lay as Monaco were down to 10 men by the time Lorient scored their second goal.

Dutch Eredivisie:-

Existing (not relegated or promoted) home teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 40.61%, with away teams recovering a goal deficit 41.06%.

Existing away teams conceded an equaliser from a goal up 49.30%, with home teams recovering a goal deficit 49.54%. 

Mean Combined Score when home team take the lead: 81.67
Mean Combined Score when away team take the lead: 98.84

Based on this data laying home teams with a combined score of around 89 or more, and away teams with a combined score of around 105 can be considered, and the following matches hit triggers:-

Go Ahead Eagles at home to Groningen (lead 1-0 after 18 minutes, went 2-0 up and lost 3-2) - A winning lay.

Overall:-

Winning lays were the following teams:-

Reims
Bastia
Marseille
Lorient
Go Ahead Eagles

Losing lays were the following teams:-

Sheffield Wednesday
Bordeaux
Olympique Lyonnais

5-3 for the opening weekend of the season from three leagues - a pretty solid return considering that the likelihood of goal recovery is under 50% in all leagues.

For more information please click on the In-Play Soccer Spreadsheets link above, or email via tennistrades@gmail.com.


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