SUBSCRIBE TO THE TENNISRATINGS YOUTUBE CHANNEL FOR THE LATEST TENNIS TRADING & TENNIS BETTING VIDEOS!
Recently on Twitter, there has been detailed conversation about court speed, and the impact that it has in Tennis.
As a trader, let me make one point abundantly clear here - I don’t care why the conditions at a venue is fast or slow, just that it will be, and that it is possible to ascertain this information in advance. Advance knowledge of conditions will enable me to work out the likelihood of players holding serve, and a fast hard court could have over 10% influence over a slow hard court, for example.
Ex-player and Sky Sports commentator Rob Koenig tweeted on Monday that a rating, known as the CPR Rating, assessed the ATP 1000 Masters surfaces in the following order, from fast to slow, using 2014 data:-
This caught my attention - effectively the surface last week, Monte Carlo, has been assessed as the slowest Masters 1000 surface. I was quite surprised at this, for several reasons:-
I assess court speed by looking at the percentage of historical service holds compared to the surface mean. It’s not a perfect strategy, as it can be influenced by a tournament’s entry list, but it’s as good as it gets. Certainly, a Masters 1000 field is likely to have a very consistent entry list with very few players skipping these lucrative events without being injured.
Using this metric, I generated the following order for the Masters 1000 events, compared to the relevant surface mean:-
Looking at this, the CPR Rating seems to be quite random! Shanghai, their quickest event, is indeed fast on my speed ratings, and so is Toronto, their second fastest, although I have them the other way around.
However it is the slower events which seem to be very different - Indian Wells and Miami are very slow hard courts and ranked below Cincinnati for speed, which isn’t the case with the CPR Ratings at all.
Furthermore, their ratings have the clay court events slowest, which is where I begin to understand how they work…
Madrid and Rome are traditionally fast clay court venues, so it appears that they have merely looked at the speed data without actually accounting for the surface.
Of course hard and indoor hard courts are likely to play faster than clay - it’s a quicker surface! But readers of the CPR Rating tweet - and there were plenty as it has been retweeted 75 times when I last checked - will automatically assume Madrid and Rome are slow courts, which isn’t the case at all! Trading thinking these events are slow is incredibly misleading and will undoubtedly lead to the poor house, which immediately illustrates the danger of taking random stats at face value without thinking about why these stats have occurred.
A Selection of TennisRatings Products for 2017
Please visit the
TennisRatings Products links for a full overview of our fantastic Tennis Trading tools, and the TennisRatings Subscription Packages link to see our great value range of discounted subscription packages!
Please check out our testimonials page!
The TennisRatings Daily Trading Spreadsheets have never been more popular!
To find out more on how these can dramatically improve your Tennis Trading, check out the YouTube Video we made.
The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders).
Subscriptions are available for 3 months:-
The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set!
INCLUDES FREE REGULAR UPDATES - THIS IS A ONE-TIME PURCHASE!