August 2013 Archive


Friday, August 30th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


US Open Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Gael Monfils, Jeremy Chardy, Thiemo De Bakker, Jack Sock, Shuai Peng, Sorana Cirstea, Yaroslava Shvedova, Polona Hercog, Monica Niculescu.

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Pablo Cuevas, Laura Robson, Madison KeysNadia Petrova, Lesia Tsurenko, Kaia Kanepi.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Casey Dellacqua, Sharon Fichman, Grace Min, Victoria Duval, Coco Vandeweghe, Ying-Ying Duan, Kurumi Nara, Maria Joao Koehler, Vera Dushevina, Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Chanel Simmonds, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Julia Glushko, Alja Tomljanovic, Aleksandra Krunic, Camila Giorgi.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Donald Young, Stephane Robert, Maximo Gonzalez, Mikhail Kukushkin, Frank Dancevic, Dan Evans, Rogerio Dutra Silva.

Good (>65% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may thrive in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Daniel Brands, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Marcel Granollers, Robin Haase, Florian Mayer, Jurgen Melzer, Albert Montanes, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, Dmitry Tursunov.

Poor (<35% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may struggle in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Pablo Andujar, Marcos Baghdatis, Benjamin Becker, Aljaz Bedene, Julien Benneteau, Ricardas Berankis, Jeremy Chardy, Evgeny Donskoy, Daniel Gimeno-TraverVictor Hanescu, Tobias Kamke, Martin Klizan, Lukasz Kubot, Michael Llodra, Yen-Hsun Lu, Paul-Henri MathieuMarinko Matosevic, Juan Monaco, Rajeev Ram, Lukas Rosol, Guillaume Rufin, Igor Sijsling, Jack Sock, Sergiy Stakhovsky.

Previous Round 5 Set Winners (>top 50 rank - highly negative impact):- Rogerio Dutra Silva, Bernard Tomic, Andreas Haider-Maurer, Dudi Sela, Guillaume Rufin, Joao Sousa, Alex Bogomolov Jr, Ivo Karlovic, Somdev Devvarman.

Previous Round 5 Set Winners (<top 50 rank - slightly negative impact):- Nikolay Davydenko, Ivan Dodig, Carlos Berlocq, Jeremy Chardy, Marcel Granollers.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


US Open - Men's Tournament Preview

US Open ATP: Average court speed, high favourite success.

US Open WTA: Average court speed.



Todays Match Previews:-


Yesterday proved to be another solid day at the US Open with TennisRatings Tips taking their tournament profit to 7.67 points (from a stake of 36.2 points).  Overall return on investment now stands at 7.20% since the service commenced at the start of August.

How much trading I will get done in the next few days is up for question – I’ve got my parents staying this weekend and I’m going to the airport hotel on Sunday night before my Monday morning flight to America.  If anyone would like to purchase any products they will need to be purchased by 8am on Sunday as I won’t be able to process any orders after that until my return on the 17th September.

There’s only 8 WTA matches today with half of those featuring justifiably short priced favourites.  The underdogs in three of those – Pavlyuchenkova, Nara and Shvedova have low projected holds (particularly the latter two) so should they somehow lead their serve can be reasonably opposed.  I prefer the chances of Pavlyuchenkova and Laura Robson to have a chance of an upset as opposed to Nara over Jelena Jankovic.  It’s unbelievable that a player as limited as the Japanese has made the third round of a Grand Slam.

Ekaterina Makarova is some value at around 2.38 against Sabine Lisicki.  The German, who is usually loved by the market, still has a losing 8-9 record on hard courts and that’s worse than Makarova’s 20-15 surface record (all stats are from the last 12 months).  Furthermore, Makarova has held and broken more in that sample and it makes no sense why she is underdog here.  I make her slight favourite.  Projected holds are above average.

Sloane Stephens is another loved by the market and she’s short at 1.57 against Jamie Hampton when you consider both women have the same win percentage on hard courts in 2013 (64%).  The serve and break stats are also very similar and Hampton actually edges the projected holds, which are fairly high.

That’s definitely not the case for the match between Carla Suarez Navarro and Jie Zheng.  The Spaniard is realistically priced today at about 1.55 and projected holds are low.  There could be a lot of breaks in this, and opposing either player on serve seems a pretty reasonable option, especially the Chinese player.

In the men’s tournament there’s still 16 matches today and then the last 32 will be known. 

Alexandr Dolgopolov is not someone I enjoy having money on but I do feel the Ukrainian is decent value at 2.75 against Mikhail Youzhny.  He actually edges the projected holds here which are around the ATP average although it’s worth noting that Youzhny has much better break point stats.  If you are considering being on Dolgopolov today I would recommend doing so earlier rather than later in the match.  He doesn’t inspire confidence in long matches with a poor deciding 3rd set record at ATP level in the last 12-18 months and rumours of a fatigue related illness also is a worry.

I feel Tommy Haas is a little short at 1.16 against Yen-Hsun Lu but I do expect the German veteran to get through here.  But there’s a decent chance he will trade higher against a competent opponent and a lay from the start can be considered.

Julien Benneteau’s match with Jeremy Chardy appeared to have good value on Chardy at 2.58 until you factor in his retirement last week and 5 set match against Sergiy Stakhovsky in the previous round.  Based on my stats for each player it wouldn’t surprise me if this match was swingy (if Chardy is reasonably fit) and with the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet indicating Benneteau recovers from a break deficit 53.33% of the time in 2013 (this ranks him in the top 5 ATP players for this stat), laying Chardy when a break up seems a solid plan.  Both players could struggle with fitness in this late on, so should this go 4 or 5 sets a comedy of errors is definitely possible here.

Alex Bogomolov Jr edged out Benoit Paire (can we call Paire a clay courter yet?!) in the first round but took 5 sets to do so.  This should ensure Tim Smyczek is the fresher of the two players here and the American boasts a better ATP hard court record in the past year.   His underdog status puzzles me as I make him a solid favourite for this.  Bogomolov has a low projected hold so combined with him being a false favourite I like opposing his serve here, although it’s worth noting he holds 4.65% more in his first 2 service games in a set in 2013 than he does overall. 

Joao Sousa is another 5 set victory victim and I don’t give him much of a chance at all against Jarkko Nieminen today.  The Portuguese has a very poor hard court record at ATP level (2-5 in the last year holding 65.5% of the time and breaking 20%).  These stats are incomparable to the Finn who’s held 74.8% and broken 24.5% on the surface in the same time period.  Sousa has a very low (think WTA) projected hold and opposing his serve when competitive in this works well for me.  He’s also a very slow starter, only holding 63.46% of his first 2 service games in a set in 2013 – well below his overall hold.

Tobias Kamke definitely has a chance of an underdog win, or keeping it close against Denis Istomin with their hard court stats over the past 12 months being almost identical.  I feel the German has improved in 2013 and his notoriously weak mental strength has got better.  Projected holds are average and very similar and I feel opposing the Uzbek in some way, shape or form has to be the line here.

Andy Murray must be worth a lay from the start against Leonardo Mayer at around 1.03/1.04.  The Scotsman has won 73.53% of sets he’s played in 2013 but just 63.33% of first sets.  He’s a notoriously slow starter and this low risk situation could prove dividends.  Having said that I do expect Murray to come through with Mayer having a low projected hold.  Murray should be able to break the Argentine regularly when he gets going.

Florian Mayer is getting into value territory against Donald Young.  The German boasts an excellent record against left handers (34-16 in his last 50 with a 34% ROI – although that was skewed by a win over Nadal) and with him seemingly improving on his fitness levels this year (I mentioned that he’s improved his deciding set record and comeback record markedly in 2013) I really fancy his chances here.  Young was gifted his first round virtual walkover by Martin Klizan who committed 43 unforced errors in 20 games.  With the Slovak’s price illogically drifting pre-match, I wasn’t too impressed with his display at all…

Finally, Ivo Karlovic had an arduous first round match against James Blake needing to come from two sets down to beat the American veteran, who retired from the game afterwards.   He shouldn’t be as fresh as Stan Wawrinka today and I make the 1.37 on the Swiss decent value.  If we can get bigger on Stan later on in the match it should be worth considering.  Projected holds are, as you might expect, high.  Backing Wawrinka when losing on serve at points specified in the TennisRatings Handbook seems viable based on the stats.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Thursday, August 29th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


US Open Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Gael Monfils, Jeremy Chardy, Thiemo De Bakker, Jack Sock, Shuai Peng, Sorana Cirstea, Yaroslava Shvedova, Polona Hercog, Monica Niculescu.

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Pablo Cuevas, Laura Robson, Madison KeysNadia Petrova, Lesia Tsurenko, Kaia Kanepi.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Casey Dellacqua, Sharon Fichman, Grace Min, Victoria Duval, Coco Vandeweghe, Ying-Ying Duan, Kurumi Nara, Maria Joao Koehler, Vera Dushevina, Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Chanel Simmonds, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Julia Glushko, Alja Tomljanovic, Aleksandra Krunic, Camila Giorgi.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Donald Young, Stephane Robert, Maximo Gonzalez, Mikhail Kukushkin, Frank Dancevic, Dan Evans, Rogerio Dutra Silva.

Good (>65% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may thrive in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Daniel Brands, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Marcel Granollers, Robin Haase, Florian Mayer, Jurgen Melzer, Albert Montanes, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, Dmitry Tursunov.

Poor (<35% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may struggle in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Pablo Andujar, Marcos Baghdatis, Benjamin Becker, Aljaz Bedene, Julien Benneteau, Ricardas Berankis, Jeremy Chardy, Evgeny Donskoy, Daniel Gimeno-TraverVictor Hanescu, Tobias Kamke, Martin Klizan, Lukasz Kubot, Michael Llodra, Yen-Hsun Lu, Paul-Henri MathieuMarinko Matosevic, Juan Monaco, Rajeev Ram, Lukas Rosol, Guillaume Rufin, Igor Sijsling, Jack Sock, Sergiy Stakhovsky.

Previous Round 5 Set Winners (>top 50 rank - highly negative impact):- Rogerio Dutra Silva, Bernard Tomic, Andreas Haider-Maurer, Dudi Sela, Guillaume Rufin, Joao Sousa, Alex Bogomolov Jr, Ivo Karlovic, Somdev Devvarman.

Previous Round 5 Set Winners (<top 50 rank - slightly negative impact):- Nikolay Davydenko, Ivan Dodig, Carlos Berlocq, Jeremy Chardy, Marcel Granollers.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


US Open - Men's Tournament Preview

US Open ATP: Average court speed, high favourite success.

US Open WTA: Average court speed.



Todays Match Previews:-


The tournament is playing catch-up after rain ruined last night's schedule with most of the women's matches falling victim to the weather.  They're rescheduled as the early matches today with the rest of the second round WTA matches following later on.  The first round of ATP matches was finally completed last night so we've had a chance to assess every player here now.


Despite my caution regarding staking in first round matches, the TennisRatings Tips has accumulated 6.32 points profit this week and the current return on investment (from 137 bets) is 6.63%.  Anyone who wishes for me to email them a copy of the P&L statement please drop me an email or a tweet and I can organise that for you.


With there being a lot of matches today, there are plenty of opportunities in the markets.  


I'm going to paste the WTA previews from the rescheduled matches from yesterday first:-

I feel that Wimbledon runner-up Sabine Lisicki is short at 1.15 against the Argentine youngster Paula Ormaechea, who is considered more of a clay courter but actually has reasonable hard court stats.  Lisicki often loses concentration during matches and I feel she has a good chance of trading higher.  This is backed up by the fact that she’s lost at least one set in 7 of the 11 matches where she’s been priced below 1.20 since January 2012.

Yaroslava Shvedova is another inconsistent player and she showed her best side in a one-sided routing of Olga Puchkova in the first round but it’s worth noting that the Kazakh retired in her previous match in New Haven so may not be 100% fit.  She starts at around 1.25 here against Patricia Mayr-Achtleitner but I make her more like 1.45 for this match.  I’m considering a lay to back position here.  There could well be breaks and swings in this with projected holds below average and both players being better at taking break points than saving them.

In a match where there should be much fewer breaks, I make Bethanie Mattek-Sands slight value against Ekaterina Makarova.  Projected holds are close and high and at about 3.00 the American represents the value in this clash.

I’m looking at opposing the serve of Alisa Kleybanova against Jelena Jankovic should her price become shorter in-play.  She has a low projected hold and I’d be surprised if she held serve more often than they were broken.  Since her return to tour, the Russian has held a mere 46.9% of her service games (in 4 matches) and that's good enough for me to want to oppose her against decent opposition.


Sara Errani is priced around 1.40 for her all-Italian clash against Flavia Pennetta, and I make that about right.  Both women are much stronger returners than servers and have low projected holds.  Pennetta's projected hold is particularly low - I mentioned earlier this week that her problems on hard court in the last 12-18 months have stemmed from her serve as opposed to her return game and I am looking to oppose Pennetta's serve if her price is shorter than starting price.


Another player that may struggle to hold serve is Karin Knapp, against Elena Vesnina.  The Italian has a low projected hold for this and I actually make Vesnina value at around 1.36, as I priced her up at 1.24.  I feel Knapp, who has shown little desire to play on hard courts generally, may be over-rated by several reasonable results lately.


I don't have many stats on Julia Glushko or Sachia Vickery but what I do have indicates this should be close and with both players having difficulty to hold serve.  Projected holds are very low and should liquidity be there for a low profile match like this, blindly opposing either player's serve (especially Glushko who I make short at 1.45) works well for me.


I'm not sure about Camila Giorgi's price against Su-Wei Hsieh.  I make the more experienced Taipei player the value at 2.20 and she has a much better 12 month record than Giorgi.  Hsieh is 14-16 on hard court in that time period, with Giorgi much worse at 2-7.  There's no doubt Giorgi can improve but that's an intangible and I've got to look at current results.  Giorgi has only held 50.6% of the time in those matches so I will look to oppose her serve.


In the opening men's match, I feel Roberto Bautista-Agut may be able to keep things close against his countryman, David Ferrer.  The more illustrious Spaniard has not been in the best of form lately and is a little short for my liking at 1.18.  As you might expect, projected holds are low with both players having a stronger return game than service game.  Laying Bautista-Agut a break up in a set appears to be a very solid strategy - the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet shows he gives up a break lead 38.60% of the time (top 100 average is 32.54%) and Ferrer recovers a break deficit 49.33% of the time.  It's also worth noting Ferrer has only held 75.43% in late service games in 2013 (when at least one player has reached 4 games or more) and this is 3% below his overall 2013 hold across all surfaces.  Laying Ferrer in late service games would have a positive expected value.


There's some interesting pricing in some of the other men's matches with the bookies not initially taking into account the effect of 5 set matches on the lower level opposition.


Both Dudi Sela and Andreas Haider-Maurer had tough 5 setters in the first round and I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw Janko Tipsarevic and Mikhail Kukushkin priced at around 1.55 against them earlier.  Not only should there be a noticeable condition difference between the players, there's also more than a slight difference in projected holds too - with both Sela and Haider-Maurer having low projected holds.  Kukushkin in particular should view this as an opportunity to get back a lot of ranking points that he's lost in the last year (he was ranked 49 in July 2012).  If you're unaware of the effect of winning previous 5 set matches on players ranked outside the top 50, I recommend checking out my article The Implications of Winning a 5 Set Match.


Bernard Tomic was another one that had to expend more energy than he would like in the first round and today he faces Britain's Dan Evans, who certainly didn't in a 3 set shock of Kei Nishikori.  Evans, who is starting to live up to his potential, definitely has a chance to take this.  He's got to 2 Challenger finals on hard court recently losing to Vasek Pospisil and Bradley Klahn having championship points in both matches.  He also beat Jarkko Nieminen at Queens so he clearly should be in a confident mood.  Based on the Challenger stats this year for Evans, which I've reduced using my reduction multiplier to convert Challenger stats to ATP ones, this should be an even money match and the value is definitely on Evans at around 3.20.  Projected holds are marginally below average.


Tommy Robredo is another favourite I want to oppose with the veteran Spanish clay courter taking on Frank Dancevic.  Quite simply put, Robredo doesn't have the best hard court stats in the last 12 months and Dancevic can cause a shock here at about 3.70.  Robredo is 1.37 and I'd make him more like 1.65 for this.  


The rest of the men's matches are pretty well priced with short priced favourites - I make there some value on Nikolay Davydenko against Ivan Dodig in a match where there should be breaks and swings, but I definitely won't go overboard on that one stakes-wise.  I'm never particularly happy being on the Russian.  


In those short priced matches, I'd be interested in opposing some of the underdog's serves with a low projected hold, should they get in front and trade a lot lower.  Certainly it should be viable doing so with Stephane Robert, Maximo Gonzalez, Carlos Berlocq and the particularly unlikely to be leading Rogerio Dutra Silva.  


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Wednesday, August 28th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


US Open Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Gael Monfils, Jeremy Chardy, Thiemo De Bakker, Jack Sock, Shuai Peng, Sorana Cirstea, Yaroslava Shvedova, Polona Hercog, Monica Niculescu.

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Pablo Cuevas, Laura Robson, Madison KeysNadia Petrova, Lesia Tsurenko, Kaia Kanepi.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Casey Dellacqua, Sharon Fichman, Grace Min, Victoria Duval, Coco Vandeweghe, Ying-Ying Duan, Kurumi Nara, Maria Joao Koehler, Vera Dushevina, Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Chanel Simmonds, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Julia Glushko, Alja Tomljanovic, Aleksandra Krunic, Camila Giorgi.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Donald Young, Stephane Robert, Maximo Gonzalez, Mikhail Kukushkin, Frank Dancevic, Dan Evans, Rogerio Dutra Silva.

Good (>65% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may thrive in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Daniel Brands, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Marcel Granollers, Robin Haase, Florian Mayer, Jurgen Melzer, Albert Montanes, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, Dmitry Tursunov.

Poor (<35% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may struggle in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Pablo Andujar, Marcos Baghdatis, Benjamin Becker, Aljaz Bedene, Julien Benneteau, Ricardas Berankis, Jeremy Chardy, Evgeny Donskoy, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Victor Hanescu, Tobias Kamke, Martin Klizan, Lukasz Kubot, Jesse Levine, Michael Llodra, Yen-Hsun Lu, Paul-Henri MathieuMarinko Matosevic, Juan Monaco, Rajeev Ram, Lukas Rosol, Guillaume Rufin, Igor Sijsling, Jack Sock, Sergiy Stakhovsky.

Previous Round 5 Set Winners (>top 50 rank - highly negative impact):- Rogerio Dutra Silva, Bernard Tomic, Andreas Haider-Maurer, Dudi Sela, Guillaume Rufin, Joao Sousa.

Previous Round 5 Set Winners (<top 50 rank - slightly negative impact):- Nikolay Davydenko, Ivan Dodig, Carlos Berlocq, Jeremy Chardy, 



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


US Open - Men's Tournament Preview

US Open ATP: Average court speed, high favourite success.

US Open WTA: Average court speed.



Todays Match Previews:-


There are another 34 matches today in the US Open as the tournament continues and the workload for bettors and traders reduces to a more manageable level!

So far in the ATP tournament there's been 77.1% holds which is 1.6% below the current hard court average, but in the WTA there's been 64.2% holds (1.3% above average) so it's still difficult to guage whether court speed is anything other than around medium.   Judging the matches on their merits without unduly worrying about court speed is what I’m doing currently although I will assess how things vary in the next few days.

It’s still round one of the men’s competition today and as with the two previous days this week I recommend caution with stake sizing.  Player motivation and fitness has been questionable in some quarters this week and until a player has played at least one match and ideally two, I’m not going to go overboard on the stakes.

On the whole I feel that the market has priced the players pretty well today although with 34 matches there are a few that catch my eye.

Daniel Brands hasn’t played for a month which concerns me slightly but the stats I have on the big serving German give him a better chance than the odds suggest against another big server, Kevin Anderson.  Both players have a similar win percentage on hard courts – Brands is 57% (8-6) whilst Anderson is 62% (23-14).  Anderson does have marginally better hold (87.4% to 86.6%) and break (16.7% to 16.1%) statistics but these don’t justify odds of around 1.32 on the South African.  As you might expect, projected holds are high and this match should be pretty tight.

I feel Mikhail Youzhny is fairly short at 1.20 against Nicolas Mahut.  The Frenchman hasn’t played a lot on hard court in the past year (only 4 main draw matches) but should be full of confidence after a fantastic grass court season where he picked up two titles.  I rate Youzhny much more on indoor hard and my model has the Russian at a bigger 1.39 price so a lay to back seems in order here.   Some stats from the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet show Mahut has only given a break back 10.53% of the time in 2013 when a break in front (top 100 average is 32.54%) so it definitely wouldn’t be reasonable to lay him if he was a break up in this match.    Projected holds are close and around ATP average.

Marcos Baghdatis is not in great touch but a defeat to Go Soeda, who also has declined in the past year, would be a very poor result for the Cypriot.  He’s priced at about 1.42 today and I make him a little shorter at 1.32.  Soeda has a low projected hold so I will look to oppose his serve in-play when possible.  I feel Baghdatis needs to take this in 3 sets though – otherwise he may struggle according to my stats.  In 2013 in 3 set matches he’s won 52.4% of first sets, 42.9% in second sets and 30.00% in third sets.  Those stats indicate his level hugely drops in later sets and should he take a 2-0 lead in sets he could well even become a viable lay at a likely 1.0x price.

Igor Sijsling has a terrible ATP record on hard courts in the past 12 months winning a mere 3 from 14 matches.  He’s held a below average 75.9% in that time, and breaking just 13.0%.  He’s also taken a mere 2 sets from 5 defeats in a row (against Michael Russell and Thiemo De Bakker) and he’s definitely very vulnerable as a 1.53 favourite against the German qualifier, Peter Gojowcyzk.  Gojowcyzk has solid Challenger Tour stats on hard courts, winning 65% (11-6) in the past 12 months and got to the final of the Oberstaufen Challenger (on clay) in July.  Sijsling has a low projected hold and I’m looking at opposing the Dutchman on serve to start with and when I reasonably can in this match.  The stats also back up that strategy with Sijsling holding 79.6% across all surfaces in ATP matches in 2013, but a lower 76.25% in his first two games of a set.  Opposing him in early service games has definite positive expected value.  He’s also another one with a poor deciding record in deciding 3rd sets of ATP matches (30% this year) and may struggle in the latter stages of this.    

Both Victor Hanescu and Leonardo Mayer are much more comfortable on clay but it’s the Argentine who is significantly better on hard courts according to the stats.  There’s been a bit of a gamble on him from an opening 2.13 to current 1.78 with Pinnacle Sports and that’s more than justified – in fact I make him a lot shorter than this.  In the last 12 months Hanescu has won 2 from 8 ATP main draw matches on hard court (both via retirement against Andrey Kuznetsov in the 3rd set, and Bernard Tomic in the 1st set), holding a mere 69.6% of the time, breaking just 14.3%.   Mayer’s record is slightly better with 4 wins from 10 but crucially in those matches he’s held and broken significantly more (79.7% and 24.2%).  Those stats make him huge value even with his price steaming.  I’m looking at opposing Hanescu in-play with him having a very low projected service hold.  Another thing worth considering here is Mayer’s excellent percentage for breaking late in sets (any point where either him or his opponent has 4 games or more in the set).  Overall across all surfaces in 2013 he’s broken his opponents 20.3% of the time.  However late in sets this rises to an excellent 28.74%.  Stats like this are something that the vast majority of the market will be completely unaware of and gives us an excellent edge over the competition.

I can’t help feeling Fabio Fognini is short at 1.23 against Rajeev Ram.  Ram does not impress me at all with his stats being at a very low level (with the possible exception of on grass) but Fognini has had so many poor results on hard courts I cannot see how he justifies this price.  In his last match, against Radek Stepanek in Cincinnati, he gave up 11 break points in 9 games and was broken 7 times.  That can inspire no confidence in his short odds backers.  Projected holds are both low so I feel there will almost certainly be breaks in this.   Opposing the charismatic Italian’s serve should be viable and a lay from the start is also possible. 

James Blake has announced his imminent retirement and I like his chances of a final hurrah against fellow veteran, the Croatian big server Ivo Karlovic.  Blake starts as marginal 1.91 favourite and I make that good value.  Karlovic has only broken his opponents 5.3% on hard courts in the past 12 months and with Blake’s surface hold above average at 82.9% it’s unlikely Karlovic can trouble Blake’s serve regularly.  Blake’s return stats indicating a 23.7% break are marginally above the ATP hard court average and he should be able to focus on breaking Karlovic without worrying unduly about holding himself.  It’s also worth mentioning that Karlovic’s breaks of opponents tend to come at the start of sets.  Overall across all surfaces in 2013 he’s broken opponents 6.0% of the time.  In his opponent’s first two service games this is higher at 10.71% but in late games it drops to just 2.0%.   This is by far the worst in the ATP top 100.

Two other matches where there could be some viable trading avenues opposing the servers is Lukas Lacko vs Somdev Devvarman and Benoit Paire vs Alex Bogomolov Jr.  All four players have below average projected holds.  I’m also interested in taking on the serve of David Goffin against Alexandr Dolgopolov.  Goffin’s projected hold is 70.5% (a fair bit below the ATP hard court average of 78.7%) and the Belgian has given up a break lead an above average 44.44% in 2013.  With the inconsistent Dolgopolov getting a break deficit back 38.30% in 2013 (again, above average), laying Goffin when a break up has definite positive expected value.

The women’s second round matches today sadly don’t give me as many trading angles.  There are quite a few short priced favourites, and the majority are justified.

However, I do feel that Wimbledon runner-up Sabine Lisicki is short at 1.15 against the Argentine youngster Paula Ormaechea, who is considered more of a clay courter but actually has reasonable hard court stats.  Lisicki often loses concentration during matches and I feel she has a good chance of trading higher.  This is backed up by the fact that she’s lost at least one set in 7 of the 11 matches where she’s been priced below 1.20 since January 2012.

Yaroslava Shvedova is another inconsistent player and she showed her best side in a one-sided routing of Olga Puchkova in the first round but it’s worth noting that the Kazakh retired in her previous match in New Haven so may not be 100% fit.  She starts at around 1.25 here against Patricia Mayr-Achtleitner but I make her more like 1.45 for this match.  I’m considering a lay to back position here.  There could well be breaks and swings in this with projected holds below average and both players being better at taking break points than saving them.

I’ve opposed Carla Suarez Navarro almost blindly on hard courts and I’ve had mixed success so far.  Again I make her opponent, Coco Vandeweghe, value at around 4.00 today.  However I’m going to be a little more circumspect today and look to lay Suarez Navarro’s serve only if my triggers are met.

In a match where there should be much fewer breaks, I make Bethanie Mattek-Sands slight value against Ekaterina Makarova.  Projected holds are close and high and at about 3.00 the American represents the value in this clash.

I find Sloane Stephens generally over-rated and the 44.00 price on her to win the tournament outright was ridiculously short.  She’s 1.57 against Urszula Radwanska but I make her more like 1.80 for this.  Radwanska may also benefit from the experience of her sister who has given Stephens a lot of problems in recent matches.  Projected holds again are close and around the WTA average.  If Stephens looks like she’s struggling to hold serve I will try and oppose her serve in-play. 

Finally, I’m also looking at opposing the serves of Alisa Kleybanova (vs Jelena Jankovic) and Jie Zheng (vs Venus Williams) should their price become shorter in-play.  Both have a low projected hold and I’d be surprised if either of these players held serve more often than they were broken.

Today's previews are also posted on Scott Ferguson's excellent blog, Sport Is Made For Betting.  If you're a fan of sports betting and chat on a variety of sports, I definitely recommend you check that out.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading and good luck in the markets!


                              Tuesday, August 26th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


US Open Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Gael Monfils, Jeremy Chardy, Thiemo De Bakker, Jack Sock, Shuai Peng, Sorana Cirstea, Yaroslava Shvedova, Polona Hercog, Monica Niculescu.

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Pablo Cuevas, Laura Robson, Madison Keys, Nadia Petrova, Lesia Tsurenko, Kaia Kanepi.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Casey Dellacqua, Sharon Fichman, Grace Min, Victoria Duval, Coco Vandeweghe, Ying-Ying Duan, Kurumi Nara, Maria Joao Koehler, Vera Dushevina, Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Chanel Simmonds, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Julia Glushko, Alja Tomljanovic, Aleksandra Krunic, Camila Giorgi.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A

Good (>65% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may thrive in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Daniel Brands, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Marcel Granollers, Robin Haase, Florian Mayer, Jurgen Melzer, Albert Montanes, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, Dmitry Tursunov.

Poor (<35% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may struggle in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Pablo Andujar, Marcos Baghdatis, Benjamin Becker, Aljaz Bedene, Julien Benneteau, Ricardas Berankis, Jeremy Chardy, Evgeny Donskoy, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Victor Hanescu, Tobias Kamke, Martin Klizan, Lukasz Kubot, Jesse Levine, Michael Llodra, Yen-Hsun Lu, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Marinko Matosevic, Juan Monaco, Rajeev Ram, Lukas Rosol, Guillaume Rufin, Igor Sijsling, Jack Sock, Sergiy Stakhovsky.




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


US Open - Men's Tournament Preview

US Open ATP: Average court speed, high favourite success.

US Open WTA: Average court speed.



Todays Match Previews:-


A mixed day yesterday as we had some poor results as well as some excellent ones.  Overall most of the players I felt were value did trade lower – apart from Lauren Davis anyway as she went down to a double bagel by Carla Suarez Navarro.  On the subject  of CSN I firmly believe she is over-rated on hard courts but it’s one step forward, one step back with regards to opposing her currently.

Looking at the the service holds yesterday we can see that the men’s tournament featured 77.1% of holds (below the 78.7% ATP hard court average) but the women’s matches had 64.2% of service games held (above the 62.9% current WTA hard court average).

It’s hard to say the court speed is anything other than medium based on those figures but I will continue to analyse that and see if things change in the next few days.

As with yesterday (and all first round Grand Slam matches) many favourites are ridiculously short and unless they are losing it doesn’t really become viable to oppose their opponent’s serve.  Also as I mentioned yesterday it’s always worth seeing how liquidity is in the markets before getting involved.

In the women’s matches, certainly Anna Tatishvili (vs Ana Ivanovic), Maria Joao Koehler (vs Alize Cornet), Ying Ying Duan (vs Caroline Wozniacki), Olivia Rogowska (vs Sara Errani), Victoria Duval (vs Sam Stosur) and Dinah Pfizenmaier (vs Victoria Azarenka) all have low projected holds and their serve can start to be opposed if their price as heavy underdogs significantly drops.

There are also several underdogs I like in the WTA matches.

Misaki Doi has a good hard court record with impressive stats (she’s actually 11-8 on hard courts in the past year) and today she faces Petra Kvitova who doesn’t have much of a history of completely dominating her opponent.  With projected holds closer than the odds suggest, Doi may well be able to keep this close at least – not forgetting that Kvitova appeared to have asthma problems again during her defeat to Simona Halep in the New Haven final at the weekend.

Varvara Lepchenko has not been playing that well lately and her opponent Alexandra Dulgheru, considered to be a clay courter primarily, has done reasonably well on hard courts in the past fortnight with wins over Olga Govortsova, Galina Voskoboeva and Donna Vekic.   Dulgheru is available at around 4.00 and I make that good value in a match where projected holds are fairly close to average.

I also want to oppose Chanelle Scheepers in her match with countrywoman Chanel Simmonds.  Simmonds is a young left hander that is considered a good prospect and the stats I do have on her indicate some promise too.  Furthermore, Scheepers has a horrific record against left handers (-31% ROI in her career) so in a match where I’m expecting breaks, opposing Scheepers who starts favourite at 1.40 or so seems a good plan.

I don’t know much about Sasha Vickery but she also appears to be a bit of value against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, whose stats on hard court are very mediocre.  Lucic-Baroni is 1.30 for this and I might look at opposing her in-play – projected holds are both a little below average.

Other WTA matches of interest include the following:-

Su Wei Hsieh v Klara Zakopalova:- Projected holds are very low for this and I’m expecting many breaks.  There’s probably some value on Hsieh at close to 4.00 so opposing the Zakopalova serve is my plan, and I may also oppose Hsieh’s serve if she meets some of my triggers too.

Jana Cepelova v Camila Giorgi:- I’m surprised to see Cepelova as the underdog here.  Her stats are better and she has more WTA experience.  Projected holds are both fairly low so with Giorgi starting as a false favourite for me I will look to oppose her.

Elena Vesnina v Annika Beck:- Beck’s only proven herself to me on clay and I make the 1.40 or so on Vesnina about right.  However Beck’s projected hold is very low and I think she will really struggle to hold today, so opposing her serve whenever realistically possible works for me.

Nicole Gibbs v Flavia Pennetta:- Pennetta hasn’t done well on hard courts in the last 18 months but most of her problems stem from her serve as opposed to her return game.  Gibbs has a very weak serve and a low projected hold and laying Gibbs’ serve is my plan here.

Shuai Peng v Yvonne Meusburger:- I couldn’t back Peng with borrowed money at 1.50 today considering she retired last week.  I’ve got no idea how Meusburger will play on hard court as she hasn’t played a WTA match on the surface in over 3 years but if it’s anything like how she plays on clay there will be many breaks here.  Laying either server should work well.

Donna Vekic v Mariana Duque Marino:- I may have let slip previously that I really rate Vekic and she should have no problems at all with the Colombian clay courter here.  Duque Marino has a very low projected hold so I will lay her serve when I can.

In the men’s tournament there’s also an array of short priced favourites and most of these are justified.   There’s also many injury concerns, particularly over De Bakker, Chardy, Monfils, Sock and Rosol.

I do feel Thomas Fabbiano has a chance of forcing Milos Raonic’s price higher than 1.06 today.   The Canadian breaks just 15.1% on hard courts in the past year so may not be able to break with the regularity that his price suggests - furthermore Fabbiano has done well on hard courts in Challengers lately and on that basis Raonic looks a very low risk lay to back proposition.

Another underdog I like is Mikhail Przysiezny who is priced around 7.00 against Julien Benneteau.  The French veteran is in the autumn of his career and I’m not sure the 5 set format will favour him.  Certainly, his record in deciding 3rd sets of ATP matches leaves a lot to be desired and at around 1.16 also appears to be a solid prematch lay opportunity.   Opposing him a set or two up wouldn’t be the most high risk strategy either…

I feel Florian Mayer is value against Juan Monaco at around 2.25 today.  The unorthodox German has given Monaco problems before and holds a 5-2 head to head lead, of which most were on the Argentine’s favoured clay surface.  Projected holds are low in this match so breaks and swings are likely but with Monaco currently struggling in deciding 3rd sets of ATP matches and Mayer having really improved his record this year (as well as winning his last 3 deciding 5th sets in 2012 and 2013) I feel the German will have the edge in a long match.   I will be trying to oppose Monaco’s serve here for sure.

Edouard Roger-Vasselin is probably some value at about 1.47 against the clay courter Albert Montanes but anyone backing the Frenchman probably will need nerves of steel as I can’t for one minute see him winning this in straightforward fashion – he rarely does.  Montanes does have a low projected hold though so opposing his serve selectively seems viable.

Roger-Vasselin’s fellow Frenchman Adrian Mannarino is another that never does things easily and I can’t help wanting to take him on at 1.40 today.  He’s been over-rated by the market a few times recently and a defeat to Robin Haase on the surface can never inspire any confidence.  His price is probably also short as he’s playing a ‘clay courter’ (got to love the market pigeon-holing players) in Horacio Zeballos.  The Argentine is nothing special at all on hard courts but nor is Mannarino – both players have poor serves but also weak return games. 

Jerzy Janowicz seems to be loved by the market currently and is 1.07 against the clay courter Maximo Gonzalez.   I don’t have a huge amount of relevant hard court stats for Gonzalez but what I do have makes the Pole 9 ticks bigger at 1.16.  Bearing in mind his struggles against unheralded opponents (WR 1087 Dennis Novikov here last year and WR 240 Mirza Basic at Halle this year) laying Janowicz at 1.07 isn’t going to be a disastrous play by any means.

Daniel Gimeno-Traver is slightly under-rated on hard courts and today he faces hard court Challenger king Yen-Hsun Lu.  Value is definitely on the Spaniard at 3.15 and projected holds are closer than the odds suggest.

Martin Klizan’s odds may have been influenced by his mediocre results on hard court but he’s had some tough draws and pushed the in-form Dmitry Tursunov close lately.  Donald Young is his opponent today and of course knows all about mediocre results himself.  Young’s ranking has fallen so much he’s plying his trade on the Challenger tour now and his results have been far from stellar in that either.  Furthermore, in the battle of two lefties, Klizan has the much better record against left handers (+7% ROI vs -23% ROI).  My worry with Klizan is his horrendous fitness and that will cause him problems in the latter stages but I’m definitely going to oppose Young early in this.  Klizan is over evens and that’s the wrong price for me.

As I mentioned earlier there are also many short priced favourites that are justified.  Their opponents on the whole have low projected holds and should a match start to go against a heavy favourite it may be worth opposing the underdog’s serve.  The underdogs I’m targeting here are Joao Sousa (vs Grigor Dimitrov), Adrian Ungur (vs Gael Monfils – as long as Monfils is fit anyway), Paul-Henri Mathieu (vs Tommy Haas), Grega Zemlja (vs Roger Federer), Filippo Volandri (vs John Isner), Paolo Lorenzi (vs Tomas Berdych) and Ricardas Berankis (vs Novak Djokovic).

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!

Monday, August 26th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


US Open Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Gael Monfils, Jeremy Chardy, Thiemo De Bakker, Jack Sock, Shuai Peng, Sorana Cirstea, Yaroslava Shvedova, Polona Hercog, Monica Niculescu.

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Pablo Cuevas, Laura Robson, Madison Keys, Nadia Petrova, Lesia Tsurenko, Kaia Kanepi.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Casey Dellacqua, Sharon Fichman, Grace Min, Victoria Duval, Coco Vandeweghe, Ying-Ying Duan, Kurumi Nara, Maria Joao Koehler, Vera Dushevina, Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Chanel Simmonds, Michelle Larcher De Brito, Julia Glushko, Alja Tomljanovic, Aleksandra Krunic, Camila Giorgi.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A

Good (>65% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may thrive in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Daniel Brands, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Marcel Granollers, Robin Haase, Florian Mayer, Jurgen Melzer, Albert Montanes, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, Dmitry Tursunov.

Poor (<35% win percentage) ATP 3rd set records in 2013 (We can use this information to see which players may struggle in long matches - especially in the 4th and 5th sets):- Pablo Andujar, Marcos Baghdatis, Benjamin Becker, Aljaz Bedene, Julien Benneteau, Ricardas Berankis, Jeremy Chardy, Evgeny Donskoy, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Victor Hanescu, Tobias Kamke, Martin Klizan, Lukasz Kubot, Jesse Levine, Michael Llodra, Yen-Hsun Lu, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Marinko Matosevic, Juan Monaco, Rajeev Ram, Lukas Rosol, Guillaume Rufin, Igor Sijsling, Jack Sock, Sergiy Stakhovsky.




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


US Open - Men's Tournament Preview

US Open ATP: Average court speed, high favourite success.

US Open WTA: Average court speed.



Todays Match Previews:-


It's now just after 3pm and the matches start at 4pm so I don't have a great deal of time to get much of a preview done sadly!  I feel that for the whole of yesterday and today I've been completely chasing my tail with getting research done and making as sure as I can be that my pricing is correct.


Liquidity will be very stretched in the opening several days with there being 60 odd matches for traders to get their teeth into.  Therefore it makes sense to focus on the streamed matches which should have more money available in the markets.  Keeping stakes fairly small in the first round is a solid plan too as we see how conditions are.


Lauren Davis' match with Carla Suarez Navarro is live and I can see breaks and swings in this.  The opposing CSN on hard courts strategy continues and with projected holds both low I will be looking to lay the Spanish clay courters serve in this - she's clearly no value at 1.37.


Other matches where projected holds are low are Petra Cetkovska vs Sofia Arvidsson, Yaroslava Shvedova vs Olga Puchkova, Paula Ormaechea vs Kimiko Date Krumm and Kurumi Nara vs Alexandra Cadantu.  In those I feel there is value on Arvidsson, Puchkova and Cadantu in particular.  


In the main, the streamed matches feature heavy favourites that are justifiably so (clearly the TV companies don't have traders making their decisions about which matches to stream) and unless the favourites get into trouble then there may not be that many opportunities in those matches.  In the women's live matches, Silvia Soler-Espinosa, Lourdes Dominguez Lino, Lara Arruabarena and Mandy Minella have low projected holds so should they get into a winning position laying their serve may become viable, although I'd recommend caution with opposing Lino who is up against Laura Robson, returning from a wrist injury.


One match I can't get my head around is Kristina Pliskova against Eugenie Bouchard.  There is no doubt which of the two players has the most potential but I've seen more of it from Bouchard on clay so far.  Her price of 1.35 is way too short and must be an over-reaction to her taking a set from Serena Williams recently.  


Other decent value players today in the non-streamed clashes are Estrella Cabeza Candela against the over-hyped Ashleigh Barty (she may well turn out to be a great player but currently she's priced too short whenever she plays a WTA match), Sharon Fichman against Sorana Cirstea, who has withdrawn and retired in her last two tournaments, and Virginie Razzano against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.


In the men's tournament, it's important to realise that the best of 5 sets format gives favourites more of a chance so looking to oppose a short priced favourite is not as easy as a usual ATP match, with the odds swinging less in a Grand Slam should the underdog take the first set.  


However, in the non streamed matches I feel Dmitry Tursunov (1.23), Mikhail Kukushkin (1.30) and Dudi Sela (1.40) all have the potential to trade bigger from a low starting price.  I also like the chances of the huge serving Frenchman, Albano Olivetti, at around 2.70 against Stephane Robert.


I also feel there is potential for breaks and swings in the following matches: Jan Lennart Struff vs Guillaume Rufin, Kenny De Schepper vs Bradley Klahn and also the Sela vs Andrey Kuznetsov match where Sela is short.


Another player that's short is Bernard Tomic at around 1.40 against Albert Ramos.  This price is almost certainly down the fact that Ramos is a 'clay courter' but actually he has pretty similar stats on hard court to Tomic who hasn't impressed me at all lately.  A lay from the start is possible here.


I don't think Britain's Dan Evans can actually beat Kei Nishikori but the Japanese player, who hasn't been in immense form lately is short at 1.14 against Evans, who after two Challenger finals has made real strides lately.  A set is definitely not impossible for the Brit.  Projected holds are very low in this match.


Fernando Verdasco is over-rated as usual by the market and there's no logical reason why he's favourite against Ivan Dodig who boasts much better hard court stats.  The Croatian retired from his Cincinnati qualifier 2 weeks ago with fatigue after a tough 3 set match with Juan Martin Del Potro prior to it and he should be well over that by now.  Verdasco has a low projected hold and I will look to oppose him in this.


Nikolay Davydenko still is a threat on his day on hard courts and I can't see the limited Rhyne Williams posing much of a threat to him today.  The American breaks under 10% on hard courts which means the Russian's limited serve won't be severely tested.  Williams has a low projected hold so should he get in front and trade a lot lower, opposing his serve would definitely be viable.


Roberto Bautista-Agut has been justifiably favoured by the market and his price moved into 1.60 this morning by the time I send my spreadsheets out to subscribers.  On that I noted that I made his price 1.38 against Thomaz Bellucci, who hasn't done a great deal since his injury comeback on clay or on hard court.  Bautista-Agut was also a recommended tip and now his price has gone into 1.43 - so again we beat the market.  Bellucci is another with a low projected hold that I will look to oppose if possible.


Robin Haase is too short at 1.50 against Frank Dancevic although he may well come through as the match progresses as he boasts a strong deciding set record in 3 setters.  However for trading purposes at the start I like the Canadian who actually has better hard court stats than Haase.  I am going to try and have a look at opposing Haase's serve if I can.


There is a similar scenario between Tommy Robredo and Marinko Matosevic.  The Australian is probably the better hard court player for me but Robredo loves a 5 setter and with the two players also having incomparable 3rd set records in normal ATP matches I can see Matosevic starting well but Robredo coming back from a deficit.  


Most of the other matches feature strong favourites which are fairly justified.  Out of the heavy underdogs playing today Nick Kyrgios (vs David Ferrer) and Grega Zemlja (vs Roger Federer) have very low projected holds.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more (hopefully earlier as well!) tomorrow!




Saturday, August 24th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


19-25 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- John Isner (withdrawn)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- Gael Monfils

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- N/A

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Roberto Bautista-Agut (Rib/Back), Alexandra Wozniak (Shoulder)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Alison Riske, Ayumi Morita, Anna Schmiedlova, Karin Knapp, Stefanie Voegele, Monica Puig

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Thiemo De Bakker, Steve Johnson



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Article - Favourites Success Based On Tournament Categories

Winston Salem ATP:-  serve stats favour server, slightly high favourite success.

New Haven WTA:- serve stats very slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


A good day yesterday overall with both TennisRatings Tips recommendations (Halep and Melzer) both winning.  


The outright bets recommended in this week's Tournament Previews also have done well with both women's finalists at New Haven covered, as well as Gael Monfils in the Winston Salem Final.


In the women's final I make Simona Halep value, as I have done all week.  Today the Romanian juggernaut is 2.25 against Petra Kvitova and I make her marginal favourite.  In 2013 she's held more and broken more on hard court, and has a superb 19-5 (16% ROI) record against left handers.  Kvitova does boast an impressive 11-3 WTA finals record but Halep has also won her last three WTA finals so shouldn't be overawed by the situation.


Halep has a high projected hold with Kvitova about average.  I want to oppose Kvitova in play and will look to do so using selective triggers.


As with yesterday's topsy turvy semi-final against Alexandr Doglopolov, Gael Monfils is value at 1.60 against Jurgen Melzer based on the stats but my concern is accumulated fatigue after playing several long matches.  He boasts an excellent record against lefties too (35-15 in his last 50, with an ROI of 28%) and has a 4-0 head to head lead in non-exhibition matches.  Some people may be taken in by his 3-8 finals record since 2010 but 5 of those defeats were against top 10 players.  Melzer is 2-2 in ATP finals since 2010 but only one opponent was top 30 (and none in the top 10), so I can't read too much into the players' finals record.


I may not get involved in this - I can't find much of an edge.  Monfils has a high projected hold with Melzer's very slightly below average.   If you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick a winner, it would be the Frenchman, but for me the match is accurately priced.


In other news, The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet is almost ready!  I anticipate a release this evening at some point, and will email everyone that has signed up for a free sample and to be notified about it's release as soon as I am ready to launch it.  I've added some more info and pricing about it to the website this morning and that can be viewed using the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet - How this works link.  I'm incredibly excited about the impact that it will have on my own trading, as well as the potential for it to help others in the markets too.


Upon purchase I will activate your spreadsheet within 24 hours, and almost always a great deal sooner.


To get an email when the product is ready for release, and to get a free sample, simply sign up for updates using the Sign Up link.  


Friday, August 23rd, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


19-25 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- John Isner (withdrawn)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- Gael Monfils

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- N/A

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Roberto Bautista-Agut (Rib/Back), Alexandra Wozniak (Shoulder)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Alison Riske, Ayumi Morita, Anna Schmiedlova, Karin Knapp, Stefanie Voegele, Monica Puig

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Thiemo De Bakker, Steve Johnson



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Article - Favourites Success Based On Tournament Categories

Winston Salem ATP:-  serve stats favour server, slightly high favourite success.

New Haven WTA:- serve stats very slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


We have just the four semi-finals today as this week's two tournaments come towards a conclusion.


In WTA New Haven, all three of my outright picks are still in the competition and it's now heavy odds on that one of Wozniacki, Kvitova or Halep will triumph.  I'm definitely happy to leave the Kvitova pick and it's up to followers how they proceed with Wozniacki and Halep.


In ATP Winston Salem, Gael Monfils was recommended and the Frenchman is now marginal tournament favourite, and I feel it is his tournament to lose.  However for those that have followed my recommendations, I have slight concern for him today as he's now played two very long 3 set matches this week and this accumulated fatigue could be problematic.  Therefore I'd recommend taking your liability out of that position if possible.


I'll start the semi-final previews with the women's matches, and I feel defending champion Petra Kvitova is priced about right to beat Klara Zakopalova today.  Kvitova is around 1.52 and that's pretty much spot on with my model price in a match that could well feature breaks - as Zakopalova's matches have this week.  I'd expect Kvitova to be more assured in the key points and this should see her triumph.  As long as Zakopalova is competitive, I like opposing her serve.


In the second semi-final, I feel Simona Halep is a touch of value at around 2.16 against Caroline Wozniacki.  The Romanian has continued her impressive 2013 form into this week and with Wozniacki suffering from heat issues (again) I feel Halep is the pick here although Wozniacki will be helped a little by having the late match.  Should this have been the early match, I'd have been heavily on Halep.  Projected holds are pretty average, with Wozniacki's slightly below average. I'm considering opposing her serve using some selective triggers.


All the stats point to Gael Monfils being a generous price against Alexandr Dolgopolov (projected holds and break point clutch score give him a big edge) but I have to urge caution due to the fact that Monfils has now played two long 3 set matches as mentioned above and in the Player Watchlist.  This scenario has a heavily negative ROI overall and I can't be on Monfils too heavily on that basis.  However Dolgopolov also struggles to string wins together (possibly due to his fatigue related illness), so there's a lot of question marks involved in this match.  On that basis I may not get involved at all.  


Finally I make Jurgen Melzer a little value against the unimpressive Sam Querrey.  The American has shown rare mental strength this week staving off 5 match points against Jarkko Nieminen on Wednesday and saving 8 of 10 break points against my recommendation Ricardas Berankis last night.  Projected holds are high and close and I make the Austrian the value pick - and Querrey's very good 37-13 (12% ROI) record in his last 50 matches against left handers is also a concern.  Another match I may not get heavily involved with in-play.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow (including an exciting development!).


Thursday, August 22nd, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


19-25 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- John Isner (withdrawn)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- N/A

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Roberto Bautista-Agut (Rib/Back), Alexandra Wozniak (Shoulder)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Alison Riske, Ayumi Morita, Anna Schmiedlova, Karin Knapp, Stefanie Voegele, Monica Puig

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Thiemo De Bakker, Steve Johnson



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Article - Favourites Success Based On Tournament Categories

Winston Salem ATP:-  serve stats favour server, slightly high favourite success.

New Haven WTA:- serve stats very slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


A much better day yesterday with seven of the highlighted eight value players on the TennisRatings Daily Spreadsheet winning, and the other (big underdog Goerges) taking a set.  Not only that, the three TennisRatings Tips selections all won - and the cherry on top was Carla Suarez Navarro getting broken 9 times in 13 games (including 7 consecutively as she threw away a set and 3-1 lead) against Simona Halep.  


We have 8 quarter finals today and another highlight this afternoon is the US Open draw at 4pm.  I'm excited about that - well the first week anyway before I go on holiday!


In New Haven, I make Simona Halep value again at around 1.75 against Ekaterina Makarova today.  The Romanian boasts an 18-5 career record against left handers (12% ROI) and for this match Makarova has a low projected hold with Halep slightly above WTA average.  I'll be looking to oppose the Makarova serve in this.


The other women's matches I made fairly well priced this morning, although I note Caroline Wozniacki has drifted to 1.69 with Pinnacle for her match with Sloane Stephens.  It's no surprise to see the young American prospect over-rated as I made Wozniacki 1.57 for this.  Players of her style seem to cause frustration for Stephens, and Wozniacki has a high projected hold in this with Stephens slightly below average.  Taking on Stephens selectively is my plan here.


You can probably make a case for Klara Zakopalova to be a little value at 2.64 against Elena Vesnina but it's not something I'm hugely excited about.  In this match I'm expecting (as with most Zakopalova matches) breaks and swings with projected holds very low.  Opposing either player's serve in a competitive match what I intend to do at the start, and I'll see how that pans out.


In Winston Salem, I make Yen-Hsun Lu (back-to-lay outright pick at 100/1 earlier this week) a bit of value against Alexandr Dolgopolov.  Dolgopolov hasn't won 3 matches in a row since Valencia (October 2012) and even without considering this Lu has the marginally better hard court record (14-14 vs 12-13) in the last year.  Both projected holds are around the ATP mean.  Opposing Dolgopolov's serve extremely selectively using triggers is my plan.


Another outright pick was Gael Monfils and he faces Fernando Verdasco in his quarter final.  I make the enigmatic Frenchman a little value at about 1.75 for this.  He showed he wants to be here this week, coming through a 3 setter last night against Tommy Robredo, and he has a superb record against left handers in his last 50 matches against lefties (34-16, +27% ROI).  Monfils' projected hold is fairly high, with Verdasco's around average.


Dmitry Tursunov has shortened into 1.55 now against Jurgen Melzer which is going towards where I think his price should be.  Projected holds are high here with the Russian's particularly so.  With him also having a high break point 'clutch' score, backing him when losing on serve at points statistically specified in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook seems a viable strategy.  


Finally Ricardas Berankis is value at 3.20 against Sam Querrey in my opinion.  The market may have been swayed with the Lithuanian getting destroyed 6-2 6-0 in their previous meeting in Los Angeles last year, but I don't read into a one off head to head match.  Projected holds are high and close and 3 sets is a good possibility.  Berankis' ATP matches have gone to 3 sets 50% of the time with Querrey not far behind at 48.2%.  Both percentages are much higher than ATP average.  Querrey had to fend off 5 match points (including 3 on return) against Jarkko Nieminen yesterday - not exactly stats to inspire confidence for backers of the American today...


There has been a lot of interest in the Ultimate In-Play Stats Spreadsheet which I'm hoping to release this weekend, ready in time for the US Open.  I've been tweeting some stats from there over the last few days, so if you haven't seen them, check them out on Twitter to see the type of information that it will provide.  If you are interested in receiving an email to announce it's release, and to get a free sample on release, simply fill in your email details on the Sign Up form.  


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Wednesday, August 21st, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


19-25 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- John Isner (withdrawn)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- N/A

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Roberto Bautista-Agut (Rib/Back), Alexandra Wozniak (Shoulder)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Alison Riske, Ayumi Morita, Anna Schmiedlova, Karin Knapp, Stefanie Voegele, Monica Puig

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Thiemo De Bakker, Steve Johnson



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Article - Favourites Success Based On Tournament Categories

Winston Salem ATP:-  serve stats favour server, slightly high favourite success.

New Haven WTA:- serve stats very slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


Just the 13 matches today in the USA and hopefully that won't be unlucky for us after a bizarre week so far.  There have now been 3 retirements in each of the two tournaments after Mardy Fish pulled out in the third set yesterday.  He's just announced on Twitter that he's pulled out of the US Open so obviously it was a pretty genuine retirement.  It's a shame he has these ongoing health issues and I'm not convinced he can get to the level he was again.  Financially speaking I'm sure he was value yesterday as even the 2013 Fish has better stats than his opponent Jarkko Nieminen but with this new layoff we need to be very careful before we invest too much faith in him.  Certainly the potentially longer Grand Slam matches next week would have done him no favours and I was already planning to oppose him in the 4th and 5th sets of matches.


In the women's tournament at New Haven today, I actually feel a couple of short priced favourites represent some value.


Simona Halep is next on my oppose Carla Suarez Navarro on hard court bandwagon, which admittedly hasn't gone exactly as I was hoping so far with the Spaniard's opponents playing much below par.  If we see the 2013 Halep today then the 1.44 is extremely generous and with Suarez Navarro having a very low projected hold, I will oppose her serve whenever the match is competitive.


Sara Errani is a little short at around 1.50 against Ekaterina Makarova and I'd make her more like 1.63.  This match has a very high chance of breaks and swings and I'm particularly interested in opposing the Italian's serve.  I will also, even though I make her value, try and oppose the Makarova serve if some of my triggers are met.  


Caroline Wozniacki perhaps can consider herself fortunate with the nature of her first round win with Shuai Peng retiring a set up (but break down) in the second set.  She does have an excellent record in this venue and will be guaranteed to put 100% in this week.  Today she's around 1.25 against Karin Knapp, who despite her win over Elina Svitolina on Monday, has poor hard court stats.  Knapp has a very low projected hold and I will look to oppose her serve if I can, especially if she's a break up.  Wozniacki has a high projected hold and also a high break point 'clutch' score so backing her when losing on serve at points illustrated in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook makes sense.


I've got next to no faith in Julia Goerges but I'm not sure her opponent Sloane Stephens deserves such a short price.  The American is around 1.29 for this match and I'd make her more like 1.49 based on the stats.  Even just looking at 2013 stats (where Goerges has really declined) I can't justify 1.29 at all.  I'm not sure of a concrete plan of how to oppose Stephens in-play as she has a high projected hold (Goerges is also marginally above average) but perhaps a lay-to-back on Stephens is the best option.


Over in Winston Salem, I think Roberto Bautista-Agut (who has been struggling with injuries lately) is a little short at 1.55 or so against Ricardas Berankis.  I do think Bautista-Agut should be favourite but the Lithuanian is a capable opponent and there's not that much difference between the two players in their projected holds, which are fairly close to the ATP average.


Benoit Paire managed to get past my TennisRatings Tips pick James Blake last night after landing in America on Monday.  It's a shame because players travelling long distance before matches has a huge negative return on investment, but we couldn't quite convert.  At least it was a decent match in-play to trade.  Today the volatile Frenchman takes on the declining Austrian veteran, Jurgen Melzer.  Melzer probably does play his best tennis on hard courts now and cannot be discounted here by any means.  Projected holds are close and around ATP mean, and I think Paire is a bit short at 1.55 here. 


At first glance I felt Fernando Verdasco was decent value at 1.75 against Robin Haase, who I've mentioned I want to oppose on hard courts as much as possible.  I've not had much chance yet and I'm going to make sure when I do it's definitely viable.  Today, to some extent it could be possible in-play although it's not a given.  Verdasco does have a huge edge with a very high projected hold (Haase's is slightly below average) but the problem is that my stats give Haase a big edge on key points, and he also has a solid record (29-18 in his career which gives an ROI of 13%) against left handers.   These reasons are why Verdasco didn't make the Tips cut today. Thus I want to be entirely sure before I oppose Haase, and should his serve come under pressure then I will get involved.  


Yen-Hsun Lu is a little value at 1.96 in a pick 'em match against Steve Johnson.  Projected holds are high in that and represent value on the Chinese Taipei player - however Johnson has a much better record at key points which has to be considered.


Alexandr Dolgopolov is a player I'm slightly siding with for his match with Juan Monaco.  This match could feature a fair few breaks with projected holds low.  I've mentioned previously this week that Monaco has an atrocious hard court record and it's going to take more than a hard fought win over Nicolas Mahut to change my mind on him on this surface.  The Ukrainian was a touch above evens this morning and was another player than almost made the Tips cut.  I decided that I'll just recommend opposing the Argentinian's serve in play when possible - with him holding serve under 70% on hard courts this move should yield dividends.


Finally I'm not sure how fit Gael Monfils is but he didn't have many issues with Guido Pella yesterday.  If he is fit, and wants it, I think this is now his tournament to lose.  Tommy Robredo backed up my assertion that he's over-rated on hard courts with an uninspiring three set win over the limited Guillaume Rufin yesterday and this match again is priced up as if it's on clay.  Monfils starts around 1.70 and if he's fit, those are gift odds.  Robredo's projected hold is a little below ATP average, with Monfils' high.  He's another that can be backed on serve when losing.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Tuesday, August 20th, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


19-25 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- John Isner (withdrawn)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- N/A

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Roberto Bautista-Agut (Rib/Back), Alexandra Wozniak (Shoulder)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Alison Riske, Ayumi Morita, Anna Schmiedlova, Karin Knapp, Stefanie Voegele, Monica Puig

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Thiemo De Bakker, Steve Johnson



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Article - Favourites Success Based On Tournament Categories

Winston Salem ATP:-  serve stats favour server, slightly high favourite success.

New Haven WTA:- serve stats very slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


It wasn't the best day yesterday with Vinci and Svitolina disappointing greatly - at least Vinci managed a few breaks of the Suarez Navarro serve.  That was then compounded by losing a nice green when Cirstea retired at 3-0 double break down against Pavlyuchenkova.  Moving on...


There's only the four WTA matches today in New Haven where there were an incredible 3 retirements in 13 matches yesterday.  


I make the prices about right in the Klara Zakopalova and Monica Puig match (around 1.90 for Zakopalova) but it's worth noting projected holds are both low.  Puig's in particular isn't great and opposing her serve selectively may prove lucrative.


Earlier on this year on clay in Stuttgart, Annika Beck gave Petra Kvitova a huge fright before the Czech came through in 3 sets.  That match featured breaks and swings and similar is definitely possible today.  I make the 1.28 on defending champion Kvitova pretty fair, but Beck does have a very low projected hold and should she get in front I will look to oppose her serve.


Sabine Lisicki looks very short at 1.40 against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who clearly started well against Cirstea yesterday.  I'm surprised to see the same price about Pav as Mladenovic was on Sunday - who I also felt was value.  Lisicki is 7-9 on hard court in the last 12 months and I fail to see how this heavy odds on price is justified.  Laying her pre-match and also a set up can be considered.  Projected holds are fairly high with Pavlyuchenkova actually having the edge...


In men's action today in Winston Salem, I make Ricardas Berankis some value at about 1.75 against the home player, Denis Kudla.  Kudla has a very weak serve even at the Challenger level.  He's held 74.5% in 4 hard court ATP matches in the past year, and a mere 70.3% in 16 hard court Challenger matches in the past year.  This is not good enough to win many matches and whilst Berankis doesn't particularly with his 20% break percentage on hard courts himself, he appears to be unable to convert as many chances as his expected value.  Hence, should we lay the Kudla serve today, it might be worth removing some liability at scores like 15-40 in case Berankis blows the break points.  


According to my Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet (the scheduled release for this is this weekend), Berankis also starts sets slowly, breaking opponents only 13.19% this year in the first two games of a set.  This is well below the top 100 average of 23.26% so I'd be careful about opposing Kudla in the early stages of sets.  However, he's pretty solid when it comes to defending a break lead, only allowing opponents to break back 21.05% (top 100 average 32.31%) this year.


Juan Monaco looks one to avoid on hard courts with a miserable 3-9 record in the last 12 months.  He's held a mere 65.5% in this time on the surface and I make his opponent Nicolas Mahut, available at around 2.55, very marginal favourite.  Projected holds are both low and opposing Monaco's serve seems a solid plan.  He gives a break lead up 38.98% but gets a break deficit back an incredible 56.25%.  Both are above average.  Laying Monaco a break up must be a good plan generally too.  His matches tend to feature more than average early breaks too, with him breaking opponents 31.01% per game in the first two games of each set.


Mardy Fish's match with Jarkko Nieminen was previewed yesterday but was postponed until tonight.  TennisRatings Tips subscribers should have been able to get 1.73 on the American yesterday morning but now he's into 1.59, so we beat the market regardless.  I've pasted that preview from yesterday below.


Mardy Fish has not nearly got back to the level he was before his issues, but I feel he is generously priced at around 1.73 to beat Jarkko Nieminen today.   The Finn has had a lot of injury issues of his own lately and even the 2013 version of Fish boasts better stats.   Furthermore, Fish traditionally has a good record against left handers, with a lifetime 11% ROI against lefties.  Nieminen's projected hold is low and hence I will oppose his serve when I can here.


James Blake seems a popular market choice today and I can't disagree.  He's another recommended bet that I believe has shortened since I emailed subscribers with him not only boasting better hard court stats than Benoit Paire, the volatile Frenchman is rumoured to only have arrived in the USA yesterday!  Paire's projected hold is slightly below average, and I'll look to oppose his serve selectively.  


However, Blake (45.00%) has allowed his opponents to break back way too much when he has been a break in front, and Paire (42.86%) has broken back from a deficit more than average as well.  So should traders back Blake pre-match, it might be worth reducing liability should he break first.  With Paire getting broken 25.11% per game in the first two games of each set, and Blake breaking his opponents 27.78% in this scenario (both above average), it would appear laying the Frenchman in the first couple of games of the match would be a great plan.


Dmitry Tursunov has a much better hard court record than his opponent, David Goffin, and I feel that the 1.66 on the Russian is pretty generous.  Goffin benefited from Jack Sock's injury yesterday, coming back from a set down and Tursunov is a step up from Sock.  With Tursunov having a high projected hold and also a high break point 'clutch' score, backing him when losing on serve at the specified points in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook appears a good plan here.


Goffin's matches, unsurprisingly for someone with a very weak serve, feature many breaks on average and he's given up a break lead to go back on serve 53.33% this year.  Tursunov breaks back from a deficit 32.26% of the time (about average) so laying Goffin a break up also seems pretty viable.  Goffin also gets broken 32.20% per game in the first two games of each set so laying Goffin's (who has a slightly low projected hold) serve in the first couple of service games today works well for me.


I can't help feeling Tommy Robredo is too short at around 1.45 against Guillaume Rufin.  Both players are more suited to clay courts and actually their hard court records and stats in the last year are pretty similar.   Projected holds are close and both high.  My worry with Rufin is that he is one of the worst on the ATP Tour for getting broken early - he is 30 breaks-60 holds (33.33%) per game in the first two games of each set this year and Robredo starts fast breaking opponents 27.62% per game early.  So anyone interested in getting on the Frenchman in-play may want to wait until after the first two games of the set.


I also feel Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Tim Smyczek and Thiemo De Bakker offer some small value today in matches where projected holds are generally fairly high.  A pretty interesting men's card today.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Monday, August 19th, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


19-25 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- John Isner

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- N/A

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Roberto Bautista-Agut (Rib/Back), Alexandra Wozniak (Shoulder)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Alison Riske, Ayumi Morita, Anna Schmiedlova, Karin Knapp, Stefanie Voegele, Monica Puig

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Article - Favourites Success Based On Tournament Categories

Winston Salem ATP:-  serve stats favour server, slightly high favourite success.

New Haven WTA:- serve stats very slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


There are 28 matches on the card across two tournaments today as the players get their final chances to get some court time before the US Open next week.


If you haven't noticed yet, I've previewed both tournaments and these can be viewed using the Tournament Previews 19-25 August link.


In my opinion, there's a fair bit of value today and the market has created some pretty odd prices.  I will endeavour to take advantage of these and in my previews I will focus on the matches where I feel a reasonable edge occurs.


At WTA New Haven, Roberta Vinci can be backed at around 1.67 against Carla Suarez Navarro and when I saw the prices, I wondered if New Haven was on clay (a bit like Berdych v Robredo last week)!  I make Vinci about 1.30 against a player with an atrocious 12 month hard court record (13-17 holding a mere 53.4%).  With Vinci having a good return game (39.5% breaks on hard courts) it's going to be hard for the Spaniard to hold serve consistently (she has a very low projected hold) and I will be opposing CSN's serve wherever realistically possible.


I feel Sorana Cirstea's status of flavour of the month has lead to an extreme over-reaction and her price of around 1.60 against a very competent opponent in Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is way too short.   Based on 12 month stats I actually make the Russian very slight favourite so Cirstea - whose projected hold is pretty much at WTA mean - must be opposed here.


Dominika Cibulkova is another who is generally over-rated on hard courts and she had an awful defeat to Polona Hercog last week in Cincinnati.  Today she faces Klara Zakopalova in another match where prices should be much closer to even - but Cibulkova is priced at around 1.60.  Zakopalova has won their last two encounters and projected holds are very close - and very low.  It wouldn't surprise me if this match was very swingy and a break-fest.


Julia Goerges has been playing terribly in recent months and her confidence must be at rock bottom.   Today's opponent Bojana Jovanovski hasn't played since she lost in Baku last month which doesn't inspire me with a vast amount of confidence but projected holds are vastly different - and even when considering an absence adjustment still leads me to believe that the Serb represents value at around 2.40.  Goerges has only broken 26.9% on hard courts in the last 12 months and I'm struggling to justify why she is favourite here.  Her projected hold is slightly below WTA average and should she look to be struggling on serve, opposing her serve here should be a good play.


I really rate the young Puerto Rican, Monica Puig, as a player with immense potential but with a current 1-5 record on hard courts in the last 12 months (albeit with an impressive surface qualifying record) she has something to prove to me still on this surface.  Her opponent, Su-Wei Hsieh, is pretty mediocre but does count this surface as her best and I make her more like 2.35 for this as opposed to the available 3.50.   Projected holds are close and marginally below average.


Elena Svitolina is another player with a good chance of making a big entry into the tennis world but she actually has the hard court stats to back that up.  She won her maiden WTA title in Baku last month and has an 11-4 surface record, with impressive stats.  She faces Karin Knapp today who has only played 6 matches on hard court in the last 3 years (a 1-5 record where she has held a mere 51.4%).  Those stats won't do the job against the impressive Svitolina who entered the tournament as a lucky loser, and may well have known she was through before her qualifying match yesterday.   Svitolina was a very generous 1.83 earlier and I feel she represents excellent value here.  With Knapp having a very low projected hold, I will look to oppose her serve when I can.


Over at ATP Winston Salem, I'm very surprised to see the home player, Jack Sock, as 2.25 underdog against the weak serving Belgian, David Goffin.  This may be an over-reaction to three facile wins for Goffin in qualifying but considering the highest ranked opponent was 357, this really shouldn't be the case.   Sock's hard court stats are a fair bit better than Goffin's - he holds 82.3% to 71.1% and thus his projected hold is higher.  I make him a comfortable favourite for this match.


Rhyne Williams has had great difficulty breaking opponents at ATP level with only an 11.3% record.  He also only takes 28.6% of break points which is incredibly low.   Today's opponent, the veteran James Blake, clearly isn't the player that he used to be but has had some reasonable results of late and still boasts much better stats than Williams, who is almost 12 years younger.  Blake is priced at around 1.50 which I feel is very generous - more like 1.30 should be appropriate here.


Mardy Fish has not nearly got back to the level he was before his issues, but I feel he is generously priced at around 1.73 to beat Jarkko Nieminen today.   The Finn has had a lot of injury issues of his own lately and even the 2013 version of Fish boasts better stats.   Furthermore, Fish traditionally has a good record against left handers, with a lifetime 11% ROI against lefties.  Nieminen's projected hold is low and hence I will oppose his serve when I can here.


I feel Tim Smyczek is under-rated today against the veteran Michael Russell.  Neither player has a particularly good recent ATP hard court record but in this 'bad v bad' clash I feel the youngster has the better stats and should be marginal favourite.  Therefore he is value at around 2.14 and with Russell's projected hold and break point clutch score below average, opposing his serve selectively makes sense.


Lukas Rosol has had a horrific run of results since deferring hip surgery and I'm not really sure why he is putting himself through this.  Last week he did actually take a set off Marcel Granollers and Andreas Seppi though, in his last two defeats which were both since the switch to hard courts.  He's about 2.90 against Robin Haase, who has a terrible hard court record and who I'm desperate to take on whilst his stock is high.  However that was put on the back burner yesterday as I recommended him at 1.85 for TennisRatings Tips subscribers yesterday against Adrian Mannarino, who is even worse!  Rosol has the higher projected hold and even with an adjustment for his potential injury, making a case for the Dutchman at 1.57 is extremely difficult.  


Finally, with projected holds generally high today, backing the server when losing at specific points (statistically detailed in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook should work well today.  This should especially work well for Roberta Vinci, Elena Vesnina, Elina Svitolina and Alison Riske in the women's matches, and in the men's matches we can apply this to Leonardo Mayer, Bobby Reynolds, Ricardas Berankis and James Blake in particular.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!



Saturday, August 17th, 2013



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COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


12-18 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Serena Williams, Sorana Cirstea (withdrew at late notice)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- Tommy Robredo, Jelena Jankovic (2x 30+ game 3 setters and another 3 set match too)

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Nikolay Davydenko (breathing difficulties), Tommy Haas (illness), Jarkko Nieminen (hamstring), Marion Bartoli (stomach)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Maria Sharapova.  Victoria Azarenka also withdrew from WTA Toronto last week.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Petra Martic, Eugenie Bouchard, Vania King, Annika Beck, Sofia Arvidsson, Andrea Petkovic, Monica Puig, Jana Cepelova, Polona HercogAnna Tatishvili, Marina Erakovic, Karin Knapp.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Dimitry Tursunov, Benjamin Becker.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)

Cincinnati ATP:-  serve stats slightly favour server, low favourite success.

Cincinnati WTA:- serve stats favour server.




Todays Match Previews:-


The Cincinnati semi-finals start in a few hours time and just the four matches for us to look at today.  


The two women's semi-finals feature favourites which are short-priced, and in the first, world number one Serena Williams takes on outright pick Na Li.  If you did back Li pre-tournament at around 23, I'd definitely recommend removing liability on Li at this point and perhaps taking some profit as well if you can.  Williams starts at 1.12 and to be honest I make that a little short.  Not enough to say I want to back Li or even be particularly 'on' her pre-match but she has caused some problems for Williams in the past but lacked the self belief to get the job done.  Interestingly Li has only lost by over 4 games once out of their 8 meetings.  Williams' projected hold is very high (think ATP projected holds) with Li's about average.  I can see this being another fairly close defeat for the Chinese player today.


Jelena Jankovic surprised me with the ease of her win over Roberta Vinci yesterday but I can't see her having much success against Victoria Azarenka today.  I make Azarenka more than 1.15 for this but she's bigger at around 1.29 - definite value for me there.  Jankovic has a very low projected hold and I can't see her holding more often than she gets broken, so laying her serve if the match is competitive is a must for me.


In the first men's semi-final, conqueror of Novak Djokovic, John Isner, takes on Juan Martin Del Potro, who beat the big serving American recently in the final of Washington.  Del Potro took a set to work him out in that before coming through easily eventually, to now lead their head to head record 4-0.  Projected holds are unsurprisingly high but due to Isner's poor return game Del Potro is much the higher and coupled with him having a higher break point 'clutch' score as well as the dominant head to head record I think the Argentine represents value at around 1.60.  I make him more like 1.33 for this.


Finally Rafael Nadal faces Tomas Berdych and the Spaniard has now improved his 2013 hard court record to 14-0.  TennisRatings Tips subscribers did well from Berdych yesterday against Andy Murray but I couldn't possibly recommend the Czech even at 4.00 today.  Nadal has a high projected hold with Berdych's a little below ATP average but it's also important to take into account the 15-3 head to head record in favour of Nadal (5-0 since 2011) and also the fact that Berdych has a -18% return on investment in his last 50 matches against left handers, so he clearly struggles with this matchup.  Odds of 1.35 on Nadal appear fair.  


Good luck in the markets and I'll add a final preview tomorrow as well as next week's tournament previews.


Friday, August 16th, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

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COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


12-18 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Serena Williams, Sorana Cirstea (withdrew at late notice)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2x 30+ game 3 setters):- Tommy Robredo, Jelena Jankovic (2x 30+ game 3 setters and another 3 set match too)

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Nikolay Davydenko (breathing difficulties), Tommy Haas (illness), Jarkko Nieminen (hamstring), Marion Bartoli (stomach)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Maria Sharapova.  Victoria Azarenka also withdrew from WTA Toronto last week.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Petra Martic, Eugenie Bouchard, Vania King, Annika Beck, Sofia Arvidsson, Andrea Petkovic, Monica Puig, Jana Cepelova, Polona HercogAnna Tatishvili, Marina Erakovic, Karin Knapp.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Dimitry Tursunov, Benjamin Becker.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Cincinnati ATP:-  serve stats slightly favour server, low favourite success.

Cincinnati WTA:- serve stats favour server.




Todays Match Previews:-


After Agnieszka Radwanska's withdrawal for personal reasons, there are only seven matches today in the Cincinnati quarter finals.  Outright recommendation Na Li therefore moves into the semi-finals.


On the subject of outright recommendations for this week, we've done pretty well with four of my five picks still in the tournaments - only Ernests Gulbis (at 110) has been eliminated so far.


In the opening WTA match, I originally had Roberta Vinci as cautious small value against Jelena Jankovic but the more I think about it, the more I like the 1.80 or so about the Italian.  Jankovic has now played 92 games this week across 3 matches (all 3 setters) including two comeback victories from a set down.  That's got to take its toll on the Serb sooner or later and I've revised my original tissue price on Vinci from 1.73 to slightly lower.  Projected holds are around WTA average with Vinci a little above average and Jankovic a little below.  Both players should be better defending break points than taking them in this match.  I want to lay Jankovic's serve to an extent but if Vinci gets to a score like 15-40 then I'll probably at least get rid of some liability.


I want to think Simona Halep, who did very well for TennisRatings Tips subscribers yesterday with her win (priced 2.50) over Sam Stosur late last night, can give Serena Williams a decent match.  I'm a little torn as to whether she could push the world number one close today - based on 12 month form, probably not but the 2013 version of Halep could have a nice chance of covering the over 17.5 game handicap at 2.04 with Pinnacle Sports.  I don't really analyse totals to a great extent but with Halep's service hold on hard courts going from 67.9% (last 12 months) to 74.9% (2013) this should ensure she holds serve enough to have an excellent chance of covering this line.  It's a mark of how much Halep's serve has improved that her projected hold is only slightly below WTA average - very rare for a Serena Williams opponent considering the American has broken 49.8% on hard courts in the last 12 months.  Williams naturally has a high projected hold.


I had to laugh this morning when I read people advocating Caroline Wozniacki as a viable bet purely on the basis of her leading Victoria Azarenka 5-2 in the head to head record.  With one match a walkover, and another a first set retirement at 3-0 down, and Wozniacki the higher ranked player in all those matches, it's absolutely irrelevant.  Projected holds are vastly different with Azarenka's high and Wozniacki's low.  Azarenka's price drifted a little this morning and I was hoping it might go a bit further as I made her 1.26 for this and something like 1.33-1.35 would represent decent value.  In-play I'm looking at the Wozniacki serve, particularly should she go a break up.


I feel Dimitry Tursunov is slight value at around 4.30 in the opening ATP match this afternoon.  It's nothing huge though in my opinion and I stopped short of recommending the Russian to subscribers this morning.  However it's worth noting in a match that features two above average projected holds that Tursunov has a very high projected break point save percentage and we can look at backing him in-play when losing on serve at certain points as illustrated in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook.  


Novak Djokovic has the highest projected hold I've ever seen at 99.4% against John Isner.  The Serb world number one is heavy favourite at 1.17 and I feel the best the giant American can hope for it to get it to a tiebreak and then work the standard Isner tiebreak magic.  Interestingly, with Djokovic having an excellent return game, Isner's projected hold is actually a shade below ATP average!


I feel Tomas Berdych can definitely keep his match with Andy Murray close and I noted this morning in my subscribers email that he has covered the +1.5 sets handicap in 8 out of their 9 meetings.  Murray starts at around 1.48 and I make him more like 1.65 for this match as projected holds are close and a touch below ATP average.  Furthermore, Berdych has a very high break point save percentage and on that basis should perform better in the key points.  Opposing Murray's serve using selective triggers is something I'm looking at for this match.


Finally, there is a big difference of opinion as to whether Rafael Nadal is ludicrously short or a bit of value at 1.30 for his match with Roger Federer late tonight.  I'm of the opinion that the Spaniard, who has a 13-0 record on hard courts in 2013, should be a touch shorter at 1.25 for this - he leads a dominant head to head record 22-10 (7-2 since 2011) and according to my stats should also perform better in the key points.  Nadal's projected hold is pretty high with Federer's bang on ATP average.  Perhaps with Nadal being the best player on the ATP Tour 1/1/13 to 31/7/13 for getting a break deficit back on serve (17-8 = 68% success) backing him when a break down would be a viable strategy in-play.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!






Thursday, August 15th, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

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COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


12-18 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Serena Williams, Sorana Cirstea (withdrew at late notice)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Tommy Robredo.

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Nikolay Davydenko (breathing difficulties), Tommy Haas (illness), Jarkko Nieminen (hamstring), Marion Bartoli (stomach)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Maria Sharapova.  Victoria Azarenka also withdrew from WTA Toronto last week.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Petra Martic, Eugenie Bouchard, Vania King, Annika Beck, Sofia Arvidsson, Andrea Petkovic, Monica Puig, Jana Cepelova, Polona HercogAnna Tatishvili, Marina Erakovic, Karin Knapp.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Dimitry Tursunov, Benjamin Becker.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Cincinnati ATP:-  serve stats slightly favour server, low favourite success.

Cincinnati WTA:- serve stats favour server.




Todays Match Previews:-


We are now into the last 16 for both tournaments in Cincinnati and as this week, projected holds (except for underdogs) are generally high.  I was quite impressed with how the market has priced most of the matches as I had hoped for more value on a couple of players - Na Li and Rafael Nadal in particular - and that never materialised.


There's still some reasonable opportunities though and I'll focus on these below.


The long-priced underdogs, Magdalena Rybarikova, David Goffin, Julien Benneteau and Grigor Dimitrov, all have very low projected holds but that's largely been factored into their starting prices.  Opposing their serve if and when their price greatly decreases should be viable.


I feel Jelena Jankovic is small value against Sloane Stephens today and I'm sure the nature of their previous round victories have dictated that.  The Serb edges two slightly above average projected holds but is available at 2.20.


Sara Errani edges two average projected holds against her best friend Roberta Vinci.  Vinci beat Errani in the final of Palermo recently and that was on Errani's favoured clay - so she definitely has a reasonable chance today.  She starts at 2.63 and I think she is value in what should be a very close match today.  


Agnieszka Radwanska is short I feel at 1.25 against Elena Vesnina, who has a very respectable 19-8 hard court record in the last 12 months.   Projected holds are close and a bit above average, so I feel this match could be a fair bit closer than the odds suggest - laying Radwanska prematch with a view to backing her in-play can be considered.


Na Li has been dominant in the past against Angelique Kerber and has a superb 41-9 career record (33% ROI based on starting prices) against left handers.  Despite projected holds indicating value on the German at around 3.25 I've had to adjust them due to those extra situational factors.  I was hoping for a bit of a bigger price on Li, who I feel will have too much for Kerber today.


I'm surprised to see Simona Halep at 2.50 against Sam Stosur - projected holds based on the 12 month stats are high and very close and if you consider the 2013 stats only (when Halep has made giant strides with her game) Halep would be favourite.  I really like this price on her.


As I finish the WTA previews I was very sad to see the shock retirement of traders favourite Marion Bartoli this morning.  The Wimbledon Champion was a lay waiting to happen in the future (at least we took advantage yesterday) and I feel a little robbed not to have that chance.  That's the financial part of me talking but it is always sad to see a player retire at a young age.  Will she return to action?  I was told earlier that Ladbrokes are offering 8/1 on her returning by the end of 2015 - if you don't mind tying your money up for a while that seems a huge price on a very emotional player that may have been acting in the heat of the moment.


Back to the ATP, and Juan Martin Del Potro has a high projected hold and a high break point clutch score for his match with Feliciano Lopez.  Backing him when losing on serve at the points specified in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook should be a viable entry point.  Prices of about 1.25 on the Argentine seem fair.


David Ferrer had problems with Dmitry Tursunov on his favoured clay in Barcelona in April and I think the Russian could potentially cause some more misery today.  Tursunov has now got an 11-4 record on ATP hard court main draw matches in the last 12 months and at 3.30 or so represents value.  Ferrer did not impress at all in the previous round against Ryan Harrison and Tursunov is definitely a step up from him.  


In the clash of the big servers between Milos Raonic and John Isner, value from the projected hold model is on the Canadian - definitely the better returner breaking 4.1% more on hard court matches in the past 12 months - at 2.50.  I feel the market has gone on the tiebreak record of Isner who does have the best record on tour in that format but Raonic, whose record is unimpressive, has won a few tiebreaks himself lately and I feel his price represents some value.  Backing him when losing at specific points on serve - as with Del Potro - should also be viable here.


Roger Federer's decline is so evident I feel he is a fair price at around 1.47 against the evergreen veteran Tommy Haas.  He was more like 1.20 for their previous meeting but I couldn't be a backer even at this inflated price when he has fitness doubts and clearly is not nearly the player he once was.  If Federer goes a break down I'm sure a lot of the market will pile on him but he hasn't got the best record this year (12-23 = 34.2% which is about average for the ATP tour) for an elite player for getting a set back on serve when a break down.  With Haas not permitting a break back in 57 of the 72 times he has gone a break up (79.2% which is well above the top 100 average of 67.7%) this clearly would NOT be a viable entry point in the long run.  Those stats (from 1/1/13 to 31/7/13) are my own work and form part of my Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet which is coming soon!


Finally, if you are inclined to back a short priced favourite, you can do worse than back Tomas Berdych at 1.35 against Tommy Robredo.  When I first saw these prices I wondered if the match had been transported to clay!  On a quick hard court this should be routine for the Czech.  Berdych has a very high projected hold, with Robredo's low.  Opposing Robredo's serve if his price shortens should be a good plan.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!




Wednesday, August 14th, 2013



New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials

COMING SOON - The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


12-18 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Serena Williams, Sorana Cirstea (withdrew at late notice)

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Nikolay Davydenko (breathing difficulties), Tommy Haas (illness), Jarkko Nieminen (hamstring), Marion Bartoli (stomach)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Maria Sharapova.  Victoria Azarenka also withdrew from WTA Toronto last week.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Petra Martic, Eugenie Bouchard, Vania King, Annika Beck, Sofia Arvidsson, Andrea Petkovic, Monica Puig, Jana Cepelova, Polona Hercog, Anna Tatishvili, Marina Erakovic, Karin Knapp.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

David Goffin, Dimitry Tursunov, Benjamin Becker.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Cincinnati ATP:-  serve stats slightly favour server, low favourite success.

Cincinnati WTA:- serve stats favour server.




Todays Match Previews:-


It's another action packed day in Cincinnati today with another 26 matches on the card.  Action again starts at 4pm UK time with projected holds again generally high.  This means, as is consistent this week, that opposing the server is much less viable and backing the server when losing (at specific points mentioned in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook) is much more viable - especially those with a high break point clutch score.


The Sam Stosur vs Jamie Hampton looks very suitable for that strategy, with both players having high projected holds and being adept at saving break points.  


The 1.30 about Sara Errani against Polona Hercog seems fair but Hercog, mainly due to Errani's great returning ability, has a very low projected hold in this.  Should she trade shorter, opposing her serve should become viable.


I make Ekaterina Makarova 1.80 for her clash with Jelena Jankovic but the market seems to find it difficult to split them, making Jankovic very marginal favourite.  Considering she has a mediocre record against left handers (-15% career ROI and -10% in her last 10 matches against left handers) and I made Makarova marginal favourite on the projected holds (which are close and a little above WTA average) I think Makarova is a decent proposition for this.


Monica Niculescu went from qualifier elimination to the second round in no time last night as she got a lucky loser berth, replacing Sorana Cirstea, and then destroyed Yanina Wickmayer quickly in her first round match.  She now takes on the declining ex-world number one Caroline Wozniacki, and I make the 1.36 on the Dane pretty short.  The best price 1.45 which she traded at earlier is more appropriate, in my opinion.  Niculescu has a fairly low projected hold for this with Wozniacki a touch above average. 


Elena Vesnina was 2.45 this morning and now stands at 2.15.  She was a recommended tip with the TennisRatings Tips and whatever happens we have beaten the market now after highlighted early value on the Russian for her clash with the ailing Venus Williams.  The American veteran has been struggling with her back in recent months and I have little confidence in her currently.  Projected holds are close and marginally above average for this match.


The match between Alize Cornet and Magdalena Rybarikova have fairly low projected holds although nothing ridiculously low.  If the match starts with a few early breaks, opposing either server could be viable here.


Marion Bartoli retired last week with a stomach injury and I'm surprised to see the bookies offering coinflip odds for her match with the on-fire Simona Halep.  Halep has the marginally higher projected hold considering 12 month stats and the significantly higher projected hold considering solely 2013 stats.  Either way, even discounting the French player's injury, she's some value at 2.00 and when considering Bartoli's dubious fitness, she's a very nice price.  Bartoli's projected hold is fairly low - with her being no value and an injury concern, laying her opening couple of service games at least is a must.


In the men's event, Mikhail Youzhny faces Andy Murray after the Russian defeated the disappointing Ernests Gulbis yesterday.  Youzhny has a very low projected hold and with Murray a superb 61% for breaking back when a break down, backing Murray in this situation has a definite long-term advantage.  The Scotsman starts at 1.24 for this.


Projected holds are low in the Nikolay Davydenko vs Juan Martin Del Potro match with the Russian perhaps a touch of value at 4.90.  I do expect Del Potro to pressure the Davydenko serve but if Davydenko plays pretty well he can do the reverse to the Argentine too.  Opposing Del Potro's serve, especially in the opening couple of games is not going to be hugely risky and could yield some nice rewards.


I feel the market has got the prices the wrong way round between Feliciano Lopez and Jeremy Chardy.  It's Lopez that starts the 1.77 favourite whereas my model actually has that price for Chardy - perhaps that's an over-reaction to the Spaniard's win over the disappointing Kei Nishikori yesterday.  On hard courts in the last 12 months Chardy has held more (82.1% to 80.2%) and broken more (20.8% to 17.9%) so I feel he definitely represents value at 2.27 (he was higher this morning) for this.  


Juan Monaco has never beaten Novak Djokovic in 7 attempts and after failing to beat an injured Djokovic on clay in Monte Carlo in April, I find it highly unlikely the Argentine can get his first head to head win on a fast hard court today.  Djokovic is unsurprisingly the heavy favourite, at 1.05.  Monaco has a very low projected hold (worse than the vast majority of WTA players today) and should get broken with regularity.  Should he somehow get in front in this, backing Djokovic is definitely a good option.


Projected holds are high between Milos Raonic and Janko Tipsarevic with there being perhaps a little value on Tipsarevic at 2.60 this morning.  Now he's into 2.35 which is more realistic.  Tiebreaks are definitely possible here and it's worth noting the Canadian is 0-17 for getting the break back when a break down between the 1st January and 31st July this year. 


Finally, Jarkko Nieminen surprised me with the ease of his victory over Edouard Roger-Vasselin yesterday but faces a tough test against Tomas Berdych today.  The Czech starts at 1.17 and that's about right.  With Nieminen giving up a break lead over 40% of the time and Berdych getting a break deficit back over 40% of the time (average 32%) opposing the Finn when a break up makes sense.  He also has a very low projected hold for this.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!



Tuesday, August 13th, 2013


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages

Testimonials


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


12-18 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Serena Williams, Sorana Cirstea.

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Nikolay Davydenko (breathing difficulties), Tommy Haas (illness), Jarkko Nieminen (hamstring), Marion Bartoli (stomach)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Maria Sharapova.  Victoria Azarenka also withdrew from WTA Toronto last week.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Petra Martic, Eugenie Bouchard, Vania King, Annika Beck, Sofia Arvidsson, Andrea Petkovic, Monica Puig, Jana Cepelova, Polona Hercog, Anna Tatishvili, Marina Erakovic, Karin Knapp.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Cincinnati ATP:-  serve stats slightly favour server, low favourite success.

Cincinnati WTA:- serve stats favour server.




Todays Match Previews:-


After a day of bizarre pricing which we mainly were able to take advantage of, today's action in Cincinnati brings us down to some semblance of normality.  There's definitely less value this evening than last night, and projected holds are generally high, as yesterday - that didn't stop an epic set of tennis between Lauren Davis and Klara Zakopalova which featured 12/12 breaks though!


There's 29 matches so I'll focus on the ones which provide the best avenues for us in the markets.  There's a lot of players with fitness doubts so we need to be very careful today (see above Player Watchlist).


Many people appear to be on Flavia Pennetta against Varvara Lepchenko (probably due to previous tournament success), but I'm not.  I actually think the 2.06 available on the American is decent value against a declining opponent with poor hard court stats.  Furthermore, in a battle of two high projected holds, Pennetta doesn't have the best record against left handers and I make Lepchenko favourite for this match. 


Annika Beck has a low projected hold but in a battle of two players where projected holds are below WTA means, I feel she offers a touch of value at 3.50 against Ekaterina Makarova.  She boasts a small sample good record against left handers and I make her more like 3.00 for this.  Opposing Makarova's serve highly selectively could work well.


I like the 1.95 about Elena Vesnina against Kirsten Flipkens.  The Belgian defied doctor's advice to play in Toronto last week and I don't think she's fully fit now either.  Even regardless of that, in a match with two fairly high projected holds, I make the Russian decent value for this.


Sorana Cirstea is clearly flavour of the month and her market support is not unexpected.  She's very short at 1.53 and the 3.00 on her opponent, Yanina Wickmayer, represents value in my eyes.  Projected holds are above average and when taking into account fatigue after her final at Toronto last week, and the fact Wickmayer has a better projected break point save percentage, I make the Romanian only slight favourite at 1.90.


The memory of Wimbledon is obviously fresh in the mind of the market as I also make Sabine Lisicki the wrong favourite against Jelena Jankovic purely based on the stats.  Projected holds make Jankovic favourite at about 1.80 (she's available at 2.04) although I'm wary that a quick hard court may suit Lisicki.  Lisicki's projected hold is a shade above average, with Jankovic's a little higher.


In ATP action, there's a battle of clay courters in Tommy Robredo and Thomaz Bellucci.  Both players have poor, losing hard court records in the last 12 months and based on the stats from those, they make Robredo very marginal favourite.  On that basis he is short at 1.54 and Bellucci represents value at 2.75.  Projected holds are a little above ATP average.  These players may be expected to break each other a fair bit more than they actually do.


Another match of poor quality should be expected between two qualifiers in Pablo Andujar and Benjamin Becker.  Andujar (6-13) edges two horrific 12 month hard court records with Becker worse at 3-10.  Both players have weak serves but I feel the Spaniard, who breaks over 7% more in that sample, should be able pressure Becker's serve more often.  Andujar was available at 2.50 this morning, and he's gone in slightly to 2.40 now.  I still make that decent value as he should be marginal favourite for me.  I will look to oppose Becker's serve in this when possible.


I'm shocked that Ernests Gulbis is available at 1.70 against Mikhail Youzhny today.  The Russian is much more effective indoors and has a very poor 8-11 record on outdoor hard in the last 12 months.  That's no comparison to Gulbis' 14-4 record and I make Gulbis much shorter after a good week in Montreal - more like 1.40.  Youzhny's projected hold is a touch below ATP average and considering he is poor value for this, I have no choice but to oppose him when I can in-play.


Jarkko Nieminen retired against Filip Peliwo last week with a hamstring injury and even though he mentioned on his blog that it wasn't as severe as feared, I can't see him being too confident in his fitness for today's match with Edouard Roger-Vasselin.  The Frenchman starts at 1.63 after coming in a little in the market and I still make that a little value.  Nieminen has a low projected hold and I want to oppose his serve when I can.


Brian Baker made a dream return to ATP main tour action yesterday with a win over Denis Istomin.  Today he faces Grigor Dimitrov who got past Nicolas Almagro, much to my disgust, in a tight 2 set win.  As normal, the Bulgarian is short and 1.23 is no value whatsoever.  It wouldn't surprise me if Baker nicked at least a set in this match where projected holds are close and high although Baker's lack of match fitness may eventually tell.  It's rare I actually want certain players to do well from a non-financial standpoint but Baker's story is great and if you aren't aware of the battles he has faced in the past few years I'd definitely recommend catching up with that.


Gilles Simon admitted he was not fit last week but thought he'd give it a go against Nikolay Davydenko in Montreal.  He lost in 3 sets and I'm opposing him again against Vasek Pospisil.  The Canadian has had an incredible fortnight winning the Vancouver Challenger and then making the semi final at Montreal, catapulting his ranking to around 40.  Simon, for a player of his reputation, has a poor hard court record holding a mere 67.9% in the last 12 months.  Unsurprisingly, he has a low projected hold and I also make him the wrong favourite for this at 1.84.  I make Pospisil about 1.70 for this match.  Opposing the Frenchman is mandatory for me.


Julien Benneteau was able to take advantage of another poor Marcos Baghdatis display on Sunday night and today faces Radek Stepanek who got past the crazy antics of Fabio Fognini in straight sets last night.  In this battle of two veterans, it's the Czech with the much better hard court stats in the last 12 months and when Benneteau's horrific 12 month deciding set record is factored in (2-11 = 15%) the value is definitely on Stepanek at 1.87.  Benneteau has a low projected hold and I will be opposing his serve when possible in this.


Finally Roger Federer makes his return to competitive action in the late match against Philipp Kohlschreiber.  The Swiss legend has been struggling with his form which may or may not be down to a back injury.  He's drifted a little to 1.25 and the lack of market support isn't that surprising.  I would stop short of backing Kohlschreiber for this probably but I do consider him to be a little value.  A lay to back on Federer should be considered with the market likely to panic if he goes behind by a break early or he shows signs of being injured.


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!








Monday, August 12th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


12 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Serena Williams, Sorana Cirstea.

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Nikolay Davydenko (breathing difficulties), Tommy Haas (illness), Jarkko Nieminen (hamstring), Marion Bartoli (stomach)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- N/A

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Petra Martic, Eugenie Bouchard, Vania King, Annika Beck, Sofia Arvidsson, Andrea Petkovic, Monica Puig, Jana Cepelova, Polona Hercog, Anna Tatishvili, Marina Erakovic, Karin Knapp.

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Cincinnati ATP:-  serve stats slightly favour server, low favourite success.

Cincinnati WTA:- serve stats favour server.




Todays Match Previews:-


Apologies for there being no real update at the weekend.  I had friends staying and also I didn't feel well all day yesterday either, so I took the opportunity to have a couple of days away from the markets - the only real involvement I had was sending out tips/spreadsheets to subscribers and keep up to date with the scores and to some extent, Twitter.


I do feel there are some matches of interest today.  Projected holds are generally high today with the courts playing historically quite fast in Cincinnati.  That's going to make it difficult to oppose servers in many cases and it will be interesting to see how the market prices a hold of serve today because backing servers in certain circumstances (especially when losing in a service game) could well be viable.


Simona Halep was recommended as a back-to-lay this week and she should have no trouble at 1.30 against Su-Wei Hsieh.  Even at that short price I still feel she is a bit of value and with Hsieh having a low projected hold, I like trying to oppose the Hsieh serve when I feel it's realistically possible.


I'm surprised to see Kristina Mladenovic's match with Vania King priced as about evens apiece.  King has a very poor 3-10 main draw WTA record on hard courts in the last 12 months, and with Mladenovic is much better at 7-6. I feel that with the projected hold stats also favouring the French player significantly opposing King (who has a projected hold around the WTA mean) should be mandatory.


Another match where I feel the market has it all wrong is Marina Erakovic's clash with Carla Suarez Navarro.  The Spaniard plays her best tennis on clay courts and whilst opposing her didn't really work out great for us last week, I feel that long-term it definitely will.  Both players have poor hard court records in the last 12 months but the stats make Erakovic marginal favourite for me.  In addition, fast hard courts suit the New Zealander and I feel that she is a great price at around 2.90 for this.  Projected holds are a touch below WTA average.


I don't have many hard court stats for the match between two hot prospects in Monica Puig and Eugenie Bouchard.  Puig has got a poor 1-5 record in 12 months on hard courts but an excellent 9-3 qualifier record on the surface (better than Bouchard's 7-5).  I make the Puerto Rican very marginal favourite, and you can get about 2.20 on her currently.  Projected holds are above average.


Jana Cepelova impressed me against Dominika Cibulkova last week but she really needs to improve her serve to have a realistic chance of a big move up the rankings.  Today she takes on the ageing Venus Williams who I can't help feeling is in severe decline and I want to oppose her until she can prove me wrong.  Williams starts around 1.42 and that's short to me.  I'd be very surprised if she didn't trade higher in this.


In the men's matches tonight, one player I'm keen to take on is Grigor Dimitrov.  I've made no secret in thinking he's hugely over-rated currently on hard courts and still has a losing record on the surface in the last 12 months.  Marcel Granollers must have been shattered last week for their match having won Kitzbuhel and flown halfway around the world but still beat the Bulgarian comfortably.  Today Dimitrov plays Nicolas Almagro and I make the Spaniard great value at just under evens.   Almagro has a very high projected hold (partly due to Dimitrov's still limited return game) and I make him more like 1.40 for this.  


Another player that I feel there's great value on is Jeremy Chardy.  Arguably he was unlucky not to beat Montreal runner-up Milos Raonic last week and I can't believe he is almost 1.80 against the limited Adrian Mannarino.  Mannarino has a very poor 3-9 ATP record in the last 2 years on hard courts and has only held 66.2% of the time in those matches.  On that basis I make Chardy about 1.30 for this and with Mannarino having a low projected hold, I will be opposing him when I can in this match.


I can see there being plenty of breaks between Juan Monaco and Jurgen Melzer.  Both players have low projected holds due to their weak serves and whilst I'm not a fan of Melzer at all currently, Monaco's recent hard court record (3 matches, 3 defeats in 2013, and in the last 12 months has lost 7 of 8 as favourite on the surface) inspires such little confidence in me I feel I must also oppose the Argentine at 1.60 in this too.


Fabio Fognini has a low projected hold against Radek Stepanek and with the Italian also bad value at evens against a much superior hard courter, I recommend opposing his serve whenever realistically possible in this match.


Finally Jerzy Janowicz still has a lot to prove to me on hard courts.  In 2013 his record is 5-5 on the surface which is exactly the same as his opponent, James Blake.  With the American veteran having marginally better stats in his 10 matches on the surface this year, I make his price at around 3.40 great value.  Projected holds are around the ATP mean - laying Janowicz when a break up definitely appeals.


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!


Saturday, August 10th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


5-11 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Marcel Granollers

Last Week's Finalists:- Sam Stosur, Magdalena Rybarikova, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Marcel Granollers, Vasek Pospisil, Sharon Fichman

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Jerzy Janowicz, Vasek Pospisil, Milos Raonic, Sorana Cirstea

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Jerzy Janowicz

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Tough to specify as there's been players recovering from injuries but they completed their previous match.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Lauren Davis, Anastasia Rodionova, Petra Martic, Alison Riske, Kiki Bertens, Anna Tatishvili, Chanelle Scheepers, Jana Cepelova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Julia Glushko, Carol Zhou, Olga Savchuk

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Marinko Matosevic, Alex Bogomolov Jr.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on these links)


Montreal ATP:- serve stats slightly favour server, slightly high favourite success.

Toronto WTA:- serve stats slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


I've got friends staying from Kent this weekend so I won't be able to trade unfortunately today - perhaps the finals will be possible tomorrow for me though.  We are going out today/tonight so there won't be any real update (have updated the Player Watchlist) but I'll try and do previews of the final tomorrow, and either tomorrow or Monday a tournament preview for Cincinnati.


Good luck in the markets!



Friday, August 9th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


5-11 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Marcel Granollers

Last Week's Finalists:- Sam Stosur, Magdalena Rybarikova, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Marcel Granollers, Vasek Pospisil, Sharon Fichman

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Jerzy Janowicz, Vasek Pospisil

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Jerzy Janowicz

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Tough to specify as there's been players recovering from injuries but they completed their previous match.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Lauren Davis, Anastasia Rodionova, Petra Martic, Alison Riske, Kiki Bertens, Anna Tatishvili, Chanelle Scheepers, Jana Cepelova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Julia Glushko, Carol Zhou, Olga Savchuk

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Marinko Matosevic, Alex Bogomolov Jr.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Montreal ATP:- serve stats slightly favour server, slightly high favourite success.

Toronto WTA:- serve stats slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


Apologies for the late update today...MrsTennisRatings forced me to come shopping with her and we only got back 30 minutes before the first match starts!


I've already done my preparation this morning though so no disaster, I always get that done by 8-9am UK time so I can send out the tips/spreadsheet emails to subscribers.


In the first WTA quarter final in Toronto I can foresee there being breaks and swings.  Agnieszka Radwanska starts at around 1.40 against Sara Errani and both ladies have a low projected hold.  Possibly there may be slight value on the Italian at just over 3.00 but nothing huge, in my opinion.  Opposing both players' serve should be pretty viable a lot of the time.


Next up is Li Na against Dominika Cibulkova with the Chinese the favourite at 1.4x.  I make Li about 1.40 for this match according to my projected hold model, and I really feel Cibulkova will struggle to hold serve today, with Li breaking 45.2% on hard courts in the last 12 months.  Furthermore, Li has much the better projected break point save score indicating she should win more key points.  All this points to the Chinese as the likely winner, and I will oppose Cibulkova's serve when realistically possible.


The other two matches I make realistically priced.  Serena Williams (1.05) and Petra Kvitova (1.50) are the two favourites against Magdalena Rybarikova and Sorana Cirstea respectively.  Both underdogs have a low projected hold although that's factored into their price.


In the ATP matches tonight I identified two wrong underdogs this morning for subscribers although one has moved to favourite.


Nikolay Davydenko is that man and was recommended at 2.38 this morning and now is available at just 1.8x.  Whatever happens we beat the market!   I couldn't believe it when I saw the Russian as underdog and after a hattrick of wins on him yesterday we are going for a fourth today.  I make him about 1.50 for this match with opponent Vasek Pospisil surely fatigued after a Challenger final last week and two very long 3 setters this week.  With Davydenko breaking 35.4% on hard courts in the last 12 months Pospisil's projected hold is low and with him being far too short in the betting even still, I have to oppose him when I can in-play.


I also want to oppose Pospisil's fellow Canadian, Milos Raonic, today.  He faces the enigmatic Ernests Gulbis, who disposed of Andy Murray very well yesterday.  I make the Latvian the favourite and feel he should be about 1.90 for this clash, with the market swayed by a 3-0 head to head lead for Raonic perhaps.  I wonder if Raonic will have his head altogether after the 'net hitting' controversy against Juan Martin Del Potro late last night and may not be entirely focused.  Regardless of that, in a match with two high projected holds, Gulbis is the value pick at around 2.25.


The final two matches feature two very short priced favourites in Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.  Both prices are about right and both opponents, Richard Gasquet and Marinko Matosevic, have low projected holds just purely because of the returning ability of their elite opponents.


Good luck in the markets!



                              Thursday, August 8th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


5-11 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Marcel Granollers

Last Week's Finalists:- Sam Stosur, Magdalena Rybarikova, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Marcel Granollers, Vasek Pospisil, Sharon Fichman

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Jerzy Janowicz

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Jerzy Janowicz

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Tough to specify as there's been players recovering from injuries but they completed their previous match.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Lauren Davis, Anastasia Rodionova, Petra Martic, Alison Riske, Kiki Bertens, Anna Tatishvili, Chanelle Scheepers, Jana Cepelova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Julia Glushko, Carol Zhou, Olga Savchuk

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Marinko Matosevic, Alex Bogomolov Jr.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Montreal ATP:- serve stats slightly favour server, slightly high favourite success.

Toronto WTA:- serve stats slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


We are at the last 16 stage in the Rogers Cup in Canada today and, as previously this week, action starts at 4pm in the women's tournament in Toronto.


The match between Alize Cornet and Sara Errani should be of interest to swing traders with both players having a very low projected hold.  Errani starts at around 1.50 which I feel is reasonable, and I'm looking to oppose either player when realistically possible on serve today.  Cornet especially has a very low projected hold - I feel she could struggle to hold as much as she gets broken in this.


I've made no secret of the fact I find Sloane Stephens generally over-rated but I feel she is value at around 4.90 against Agnieszka Radwanska today.  Projected holds are pretty close and much closer than the 1.27 on the Pole indicates.  I think Stephens could nick a set at least here (she has in their two previous meetings) and I'd be surprised if Radwanska didn't trade higher.  A lay-to-back appears to be in order here.


Another match I expect breaks in is the clash between Magdalena Rybarikova and Marion Bartoli.  Bartoli is quoted as saying her hamstring has improved but isn't perfect and the only think worrying me about Rybarikova is accumulated fatigue.  Should she be priced anywhere near today's price of around 3.00 with fresh legs I wouldn't hesitate in recommending her.  As with yesterday - one to watch.  If she starts well but doesn't lead by a break I think if you can get the current price it would be great value.  Both projected holds are low.  Laying Bartoli's opening couple of service games isn't going to be hugely risky and could yield some nice rewards.


Jelena Jankovic has really struggled to get past two very mediocre opponents in Anna Tatishvili and Sharon Fichman.  The Serb is better on clay, as I have mentioned previously.  Her opponent today, Sorana Cirstea, is a little value at around 2.3x for this I feel and there really isn't a great deal between these two.  I wouldn't be shocked if Cirstea won this.   Both women have a fairly low projected hold.


Roberta Vinci has won her last 5 matches (all since June 2011) against Dominika Cibulkova and I was surprised to see her available around 1.90 this morning.  She leads two projected holds which are several percent either side of the WTA average and with a higher projected break point save score, should be better at the key points here.  I've not been impressed with Cibulkova's serve at all this week against Cepelova or Kerber and if she had similar problems she will really struggle to hold against as good a returner as Vinci.  Opposing Cibulkova's serve selectively definitely seems a good plan.


Finally our women's action finishes with Petra Kvitova taking on Sam Stosur.  I recommended Kvitova at 2.04 to tips subscribers this morning and I'm not surprised that her price has fallen, with most bookmakers in the 1.8x region now.  Pinnacle go 1.91 which is getting towards where I priced her - 1.85.  She leads two high projected holds, is defending champions points so will definitely be motivated, and with Stosur surely tired after winning in Carlsbad and a 3 setter against Carla Suarez Navarro last night, Kvitova is definitely my pick for this.


The men's action in Montreal starts an hour later, at 5pm UK time.  There's definitely less value in tonight's men's matches but there are several matches I feel we should have an edge in.


Both Marinko Matosevic and Kei Nishikori start at similar prices (2.75 or so) against Benoit Paire and Richard Gasquet respectively.  Both represent slight value in my eyes with projected holds close and around ATP mean.  Paire and Gasquet do have the higher but the difference isn't reflected in the prices.  


Rafael Nadal starts at around 1.20 against Jerzy Janowicz and actually I make that some value!  Janowicz not only has to cope with his injured arm, but also has had two long 3 set matches in two days so should be shattered.  The Pole's projected serve is low (Nadal's high) and I'm recommending backing Nadal if he falls a break down in this.  I'm doing some research into players losing a break lead currently and for a big server with good serving stats generally, Janowicz certainly loses a break lead a lot more than he should...


Andy Murray's win over Marcel Granollers probably looks straightforward if you looked at the scoreline only but Murray gave a break back from a double break lead in the first set and then had to fight back from a similar deficit to get it to a tiebreak in the second.  This win is further tainted by the fact that Granollers was justifiably knackered after winning Kitzbuhel and then travelling halfway around the world!  Today the Scotsman takes on Ernests Gulbis, who was far from his best when disposing of Fabio Fognini in three sets yesterday but the wind was a huge issue for him (he served underarm at one point!) and I like the Latvian's chances here to take at least a set.  He is never overawed against elite players and with Murray starting at around 1.22 this is a definite lay to back for me.


Finally, I'm getting increasingly uncomfortable recommending Nikolay Davydenko every day this week but he's done well for us so far and I'm going for the hat-trick against Alex Bogomolov Jr tonight.  I feel the 1.55 on Davydenko is very generous and presumably is an over-reaction on Bogomolov's win over the woeful David Ferrer last night.  Ferrer was 0/6 on break points (his expected break point win would be around 2.5 from 6) and I feel that in this all Russian clash Davydenko is the value pick according to my projected holds.  These indicate Bogomolov will have huge issues holding serve - he's only held 70.4% in ATP matches on hard courts in the last year, way below the ATP average of 78.4%.  With Davydenko being stronger on return than serve himself, I really see him struggling.  Opposing Bogomolov's serve when realistically possible has to be the play here.


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!



Wednesday, August 7th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


5-11 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Marcel Granollers

Last Week's Finalists:- Sam Stosur, Magdalena Rybarikova, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Marcel Granollers, Vasek Pospisil, Sharon Fichman

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- 

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Jerzy Janowicz

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Tough to specify as there's been players recovering from injuries but they completed their previous match.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Lauren Davis, Anastasia Rodionova, Petra Martic, Alison Riske, Kiki Bertens, Anna Tatishvili, Chanelle Scheepers, Jana Cepelova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Julia Glushko, Carol Zhou, Olga Savchuk

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

Marinko Matosevic, Alex Bogomolov Jr.



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Montreal ATP:- serve stats slightly favour server, slightly high favourite success.

Toronto WTA:- serve stats slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


Action starts again at 4pm UK time today in Canada and as with yesterday there's plenty of matches for us to choose from - 27 today so I'm going to focus on those where I feel I have the biggest edges in my trading.

In the opener, Mona Barthel appears generously priced at 2.60 against the frequently over-rated Sloane Stephens but I worry about her ability to string consecutive wins together currently.  However for trading purposes I feel Stephens is short at 1.6 and projected holds are close, around the WTA average.

Both Jelena Jankovic's and Sharon Fichman's matches yesterday were great to trade but brutal to watch, both being very low quality affairs.  I can see a repeat of Jankovic's match with Anna Tatishvili yesterday with the Serb getting through but a few swings along the way.  Therefore, and the projected holds agree too, a pre-match lay of her at around 1.20 is definitely a solid plan with a view to trading out at a higher price in-play.

Marion Bartoli has not played a competitive match since her Wimbledon triumph due to injury and I'm surprised to see her as short as 1.25 against the qualifier Lauren Davis.  Davis is in great nick having qualified and beaten Svetlana Kuznetsova twice in the process of getting to this stage, and I make Bartoli more like 1.50 for this.  Therefore I have no alternative but to oppose Bartoli with a pre-match lay and possibly in play too.  Both players have below average projected hold.

Magdalena Rybarikova didn't make the pre-match tip cut due to concerns over her fatigue and she certainly didn't have it all her own way yesterday against the mediocre Alexandra Dulgheru.  Varvara Lepchenko has an average hard court record and should Rybarikova not be at the races will take advantage.  However if Rybarikova can play at her normal level, 2.15 or so is a gift on her.  If she starts fairly well but doesn't get a break up, taking that price should be a good positive expected value prospect.

Kiki Bertens has a low projected hold against Kirsten Flipkens but I still make her value with the Belgian short at around 1.40.  Flipkens is here against doctors advice and it seemed she'd fold after the first set against Venus Williams, losing 6-0.  The notorious 'Flipper Comeback' changed things around though, and she beat the declining Williams sister in 3 sets.  All that points to Bertens being the value pick here.  Flipkens is another lay-to-back proposition for me.

Klara Zakopalova's match with Sara Errani should be good for trading.  Errani, not in the best form, starts at 1.42 and that looks a touch short for me.  Both players have a very low projected hold and I can see this being very swingy, with lots of breaks of serve.  Opposing either players serve almost blindly (worked well in the suggested Fichman vs Dubois match yesterday!) is my plan.

Finally in the women's action tonight Sam Stosur should be able to dispose the clay courter Carla Suarez Navarro with ease but isn't backable at 1.28 pre-match.  Should the Spaniard start well, I will look to oppose her serve.   She has a very low projected hold.

In the men's competition, I'm surprised to see the market support for Fabio Fognini against Ernests Gulbis.  The Latvian is by far the better hard court player and I can only assume the market has gone bananas with Fognini's recent clay court form and gifted victory last night over Marcos Baghdatis.  Fognini has a low projected hold, so coupled with him being no value at around 2.75, means I will try to oppose his serve when realistically possible.

Vasek Pospisil had a fabulous win over John Isner last night but I'm not sure he can replicate that against Radek Stepanek tonight.  The Czech also managed to get past a higher ranked opponent in Nicolas Almagro and starts at 1.62 for this - however I make him 1.40.  That's great value on the veteran who has a high projected hold - backing him when losing on serve (specified points in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook) should work well.

Nikolay Davydenko is struggling with consistency but should be able to get past Pablo Andujar tonight.  The Spaniard is a very weak hard courter and is lucky to get to the 2nd round of Masters on the surface - he got a plum draw against qualifier Amir Weintraub in the first round.  Davydenko is generously priced at 1.50, and as with yesterday, I'm not entirely comfortable on relying on him but I feel he should be able to get past Andujar.  My model priced this at 1.22 so again, this is great value.  Andujar has a very low projected hold so I will look to oppose his serve in play.

I'm finishing with a preview of three nicely priced underdogs to shock more illustrious opposition.

Frank Dancevic battled from a set and break down against Yen-Hsun Lu last night and his reward is a clash with the big serving Pole, Jerzy Janowicz.  Janowicz had a sapping 3 setter himself last night against Julien Benneteau, and after the match admitted his right arm injury is far from 100%.  Therefore I'm looking to take him on at 1.31 with a lay-to-back.  I make him more like 1.45 for this.

Juan Martin Del Potro may be a little tired after claiming the title in Washington but this accumulated fatigue affects top players less than lower ranked ones.  However even without taking that into account, 1.15 against a competent player with a winning 12 month hard court record in Ivan Dodig seems very short.  Another lay-to-back for me there.

Finally Rafael Nadal makes his long awaited comeback after defeat by Steve Darcis at Wimbledon.  He can't be 100% fit and 1.06 against the home player, Jesse Levine, appears another lay-to-back opportunity.  Levine is nothing special at all but nor was Darcis, and will also enjoy home crowd support.  

Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!

Tuesday, August 6th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


5-11 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- Marcel Granollers

Last Week's Finalists:- Sam Stosur, Magdalena Rybarikova, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Marcel Granollers, Vasek Pospisil, Sharon Fichman

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- 

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Jerzy Janowicz

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Tough to specify as there's been players recovering from injuries but they completed their previous match.

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Lauren Davis, Anastasia Rodionova, Petra Martic, Alison Riske, Kiki Bertens, Anna Tatishvili, Chanelle Scheepers, Jana Cepelova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Julia Glushko, Carol Zhou, Olga Savchuk

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Montreal ATP:- serve stats slightly favour server, slightly high favourite success.

Toronto WTA:- serve stats slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-



There's plenty of action for us to get our teeth into tonight and if last night was anything to go by we are in for a treat!  Last night featured plenty of volatility, particularly in the ladies matches with the Barthel v Zheng match giving some particularly nice swings...

Today's previews start with the women's matches in Toronoto, which commence at 4pm UK time.

Alize Cornet gets us up and running against Elena Vesnina and in a tough match to price up, I make the Russian some value at around 1.85.  Certainly she is the more accomplished hard court player and I feel Cornet's run last week in Washington was one of positive variance, playing out of touch and over-rated players.  However what concerns me is Vesnina's lack of hard court action in recent weeks so anyone on her needs to exercise a little caution.  Cornet has a very low projected hold so I will be looking to oppose her if I feel I realistically can.

I feel Ana Ivanovic is a little short at 1.18 against Su-Wei Hsieh, who is pretty mediocre in this company but is best on hard courts.  The Serb, for me, is best on clay and I like a fairly small stakes pre-match lay of Ivanovic, with a view to trading out when her price rises in-play.

A match that cannot be ignored is the fascinating clash between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Lauren Davis.  For those of you who are unaware, Davis shocked Kuznetsova in the qualifiers but Kuznetsova got a lucky loser berth subsequently.  By quirk of fate, they were drawn together in the first round.  There's many conspiracy theories abounding regarding whether Kuznetsova tanked because she knew she had a lucky loser spot.  However why would she take the first set in that case?  Personally my explanation is Kuznetsova's hard court record is not as good as it once was and Davis won fair and square.  The American starts at around 3.10 to replicate the win and for me that's good value.  Projected holds indicate this could be close again.

Magdalena Rybarikova may be a little tired after her run to the Washington title last week but I'd be surprised if it hindered her that badly against an opponent as weak as Alexandra Dulgheru.   Rybarikova starts at 1.62 and for me that's generous, even considering potential fatigue issues.  Dulgheru has a very low projected hold and must be opposed unless Rybarikova obviously isn't at the races.

Sharon Fichman and Stephanie Dubois should serve up a break-fest with projected holds both very low indeed.  Dubois has some value on her as the bookies make her slight underdog whereas I make her slight favourite, although there's not much in it.  A match where laying the server almost blindly should work well.

Another match with pretty low projected holds is Chanelle Scheepers' match with Francesca Schiavone.  The Italian hasn't got a good hard court record of late and, according to my stats, should struggle to hold serve here.  I make Scheepers marginal favourite for this so if the prices of a shade over evens are still available from this morning, that's value.

I feel that the market has way too much faith in Carla Suarez Navarro on hard courts and she takes a woeful record into her match with Jamie Hampton tonight.  She's got a 44% winrate on the surface in the last 12 months (12-15) and 45% career.  Compare that to her 70% clay record in the last 12 months and you can see the difference in her surface results.  Hampton is very comfortable on the surface and has a 15-9 record in the same time period on hard court.  To get 1.62 on Hampton I feel is very generous and I make this a great value price.  Suarez Navarro has a very low projected hold and I will be opposing her serve whenever I feel I can.

Action starts at 5pm UK time in the men's tournament in Montreal and there's a few prices that stick out.

I didn't get involved in it with the pre-match tips but Michael Llodra is one to keep an eye on in-play if possible.  1.80 against an opponent as weak as Alex Bogomolov is generous, but both have had recent injury issues.  A real shame it's not being streamed as I'd want to take this if he appears fit.  I'll probably just look to lay Bogomolov's serve a couple of times at the start if liquidity is decent, and see where I go from there.

Yen-Hsun Lu is value at 1.67 against the home player, Frank Dancevic.  Dancevic has won only 3 of 11 hard court matches at ATP level in 3 years so Lu, a solid but unspectacular player, represents a good price here.   The Canadian has a low projected hold.

Fabio Fognini has had the run of his life with 2 tournament wins and another final back to back.  A week off last week will have benefited him but I get the feeling he will be glad he banked those ranking points and cash because I don't expect much from him on hard courts.  He has a 6-10 record on the surface in the last 12 months and Marcos Baghdatis, back in form nicely from last week, can take advantage at a generous price of around 1.80.  Fognini has a low projected hold and I will be looking to oppose him in-play.

John Isner is another in great form with 2 consecutive finals but he's never one for playing a lot of tennis in a short space of time.  He faces the improving Vasek Pospisil today and could be challenged by the home player who has beaten him before.  Isner is pretty short at 1.43 or so.

I can't work out the prices between Mikhail Youzhny and Jurgen Melzer, and Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov.  Both feature form players vs completely out of touch players but there is a huge over-reaction on the form players with Youzhny around 1.28 and Anderson about 1.37.  Melzer hasn't played well on clay but that was no surprise to me, as with Tipsarevic yesterday, I want to see them on hard courts several times before I completely write them off.  Youzhny has a far from stellar record outdoors on hard courts (much better indoors) and I feel he is very short here.  Anderson has played a lot of matches lately and done a fair bit of travelling too.  Against an opponent who can be brilliant one day and play like he's never picked up a racket before the next, I'm tempted to take a gamble on the Ukrainian.  Their hard court records don't actually differ that much.

I will go on about it (and take advantage) until he retires but the market WAY over-rates Gilles Simon on hard courts.  He has held a mere 68.7% in his 21 hard court matches in the last 12 months and that's not nearly good enough, even when breaking 27.9%.  His opponent Nikolay Davydenko is in obvious decline but I feel represents value at 2.75.  Even with declining stats he holds more (77.7%) and breaks more (31.7%) on hard courts in the last 12 months.  Taking a position on Davydenko is not something I'm hugely comfortable with but I feel this match will provide breaks and swings as projected holds are very low and I'll be looking to take advantage of those.

Finally Milos Raonic is in awful form but the market seems to think just because he's in Canada he will automatically return to form.  He's 1.35 against Jeremy Chardy, a competent player who will take advantage if a big name player is not performing - the Frenchman has had some notable scalps in the last year or two.  Opposing Raonic is mandatory in some way shape or form.  If he had the tiebreak record of John Isner, he'd be a top 10 player but he currently doesn't.  With Chardy much better at these (15-9 vs 17-21 in the last 12 months) I feel the Frenchman can take a set at least, and possibly even the win.

Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!


Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Monday, August 5th, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two

Article - Which Young WTA Players Can Make It? - Part One


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


5-11 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Sam Stosur, Magdalena Rybarikova, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Marcel Granollers

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- 

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- 

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- 

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

Lauren Davis, AnastasiaRodionova, Petra Martic, Alison Riske, Kiki Bertens, Anna Tatishvili, Chanelle Scheepers, Jana Cepelova, Alexandra Dulgheru, Julia Glushko, Carol Zhou, Olga Savchuk

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

N/A



Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Montreal ATP:- serve stats slightly favour server, slightly high favourite success.

Toronto WTA:- serve stats slightly favour receiver.




Todays Match Previews:-


The hard court season starts in full tonight as the Rogers Cup takes place in Montreal (men's) and Toronto (women's) , starting at 4pm UK time.


In the opener in the women's tournament, there are a high chance of breaks in the match between Urszula Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta.  I like the chances of the Pole here with Pennetta playing just 5 matches (1-4 record) on a less favoured surface for her.  Her career generally is in decline and I think the 1.7x available on the less successful Radwanska sister is value.  Both projected holds are low and Pennetta's is especially so.  I'd be surprised if she held more than she broke in this..  


Mona Barthel is highly inconsistent right now but her opponent today, Jie Zheng, has very poor hard court stats, holding just 53.8% in the last 12 months in an 11-14 record.  My projected hold model indicates value on the German at around 1.50, with Zheng having a low projected hold.


Dominika Cibulkova can be excused her defeat last week in Carlsbad against Ana Ivanovic after her Stanford victory, and today she starts at 1.20 against the weak serving qualifier, Jana Cepelova.  Unsurprisingly, Cepelova has a low projected hold but I think 1.20 on Cibulkova is short, at least for trading purposes.  I'm tempted to put a fairly low stakes lay in at 1.20 prematch, with a view to profiting should it rise a fair bit in-play.


Another match where breaks are immensely possible is the clash of qualifiers between Kiki Bertens and Alison Riske.  Riske starts about 1.77 favourite and I think that's a fair price.  Both players have a low projected hold and it's the out of form Bertens with the lower.  Opposing both players serve appears viable when realistically possible, although I especially like this move with Bertens.


In the last match of the day in Toronto, Sloane Stephens appears short at 1.49 against Kristina Mladenovic.  Last week Stephens fell to a short priced defeat against Olga Puchkova and Mladenovic is a far better player than Puchkova.  Projected holds are close and a little on the low side, but I feel I must oppose Stephens when possible in this.


In the men's event, projected holds are a fair bit higher with less opportunity to lay servers tonight.


The match between two clay courters, Martin Klizan and Thomaz Bellucci interests me, with the Brazilian not having played well since his injury return.  Klizan has the better hard court record and also has a better return on investment in matches against fellow left handers.  On that basis I have to oppose Bellucci and Klizan at 1.76 represents value.


Ernests Gulbis is a long-shot outright pick for this event and today he has a high projected hold against Feliciano Lopez.  With the Latvian also having a high projected break point save percentage, I like backing him when losing on serve (specific points only illustrated in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook) and I also feel he is value at 1.60 pre-match too.  He has a significantly better record on hard courts in the last 12 months.


Benoit Paire still flatters to deceive in my eyes and is being priced on potential rather than current ability.  He also has a 2-4 hard court record in 2013 and is 7-11 in the last 12 months on the surface.  His opponent today, Philipp Kohlschreiber, is an accomplished hard court player but appears to favour playing in Europe.  Kohlschreiber starts at around 1.85 and I think that's a little value.  Paire's projected hold is a little below average and opposing him a break up is a definite option.


Marinko Matosevic appears great value at around 1.85 against Benjamin Becker.  Becker also has a projected hold a bit below ATP hard court average and I'm surprised to see the Australian available at this price today.  He's in good form as a quarter final in Washington illustrates and impressed in a comeback win against Jack Sock in qualifiers yesterday.  Becker's best days are behind him now and has a poor 3-9 record in hard court matches in the last 12 months.  He's only beaten the clay courter, Aljaz Bedene, this season on hard court on the ATP main tour.  Opposing Becker in some way, shape or form is the only way to go here.


Finally, I wonder if Janko Tipsarevic can return to winning ways in a match which should be pretty close against Denis Istomin.  Neither player is in particularly stellar form, with Tipsarevic notably pilloried for his recent results, justifiably.  However his defeat against Falla in Bogota was a likely tank, and his defeat against Haase on the Gstaad clay almost certainly down to scheduling deficiencies.  I make him about 1.7 for this clash between two players with high projected holds.  Earlier this morning he was available at 1.85-1.90 so that was definitely value in my eyes.


Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!








Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Saturday, August 3rd, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


29 July - 4 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Dominika CibulkovaAgnieszka Radwanska, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, James Duckworth

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- Magdalena Rybarikova

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Horacio Zeballos (intercostal muscle), Andreas Haider-Maurer (back), Alex Bogomolov (back), Beatrice Capra (unknown)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Mardy Fish (only one match after 3 month absence), Radek Stepanek (hamstring since Wimbledon), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 months since French Open - abdominal strain), Victoria Azarenka (knee since Wimbledon), Michael Llodra (hamstring since Wimbledon)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

WASHINGTON:-

Michelle Larcher De Brito, Jessica Pegula, Alexandra Mueller, Irina Falconi

CARLSBAD:-

Marina Erakovic, Sesil Karatantcheva, Coco Vandeweghe, Sachie Ishizu

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

KITZBUHEL:-

Jan Hajek

WASHINGTON:-

Tim Smyczek, Sam Groth, Alex Kuznetsov, Somdev Devvarman




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Kitzbuhel:- serve stats slightly favour the receiver, poor favourite success

Washington ATP:- serve stats slightly favour the server, average favourite success

Washington WTA:- serve stats slightly favour the server

Carlsbad:- serve stats favour the server




Todays Match Previews:-


Apologies but no real website update today.   I'm off out with Mrs. TennisRatings shortly all day, and I'm going to use the weekend as an opportunity to chill out before two big tournaments next week.  


Subscribers should have their spreadsheets today though, and if you would like to receive your copy for today's matches, if you sign up before 9am then I can process that before I go out.


Good luck in the markets!



Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Friday, August 2nd, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


New tabs have been added!  Click on the links:

New!! Pre Match Tips

TennisRatings Subscription Packages & Subscriber Loyalty Packages


Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


29 July - 4 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Dominika Cibulkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, James Duckworth

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Horacio Zeballos (intercostal muscle), Andreas Haider-Maurer (back), Alex Bogomolov (back), Beatrice Capra (unknown)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Mardy Fish (only one match after 3 month absence), Radek Stepanek (hamstring since Wimbledon), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 months since French Open - abdominal strain), Victoria Azarenka (knee since Wimbledon), Michael Llodra (hamstring since Wimbledon)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

WASHINGTON:-

Michelle Larcher De Brito, Jessica Pegula, Alexandra Mueller, Irina Falconi

CARLSBAD:-

Marina Erakovic, Sesil Karatantcheva, Coco Vandeweghe, Sachie Ishizu

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

KITZBUHEL:-

Jan Hajek

WASHINGTON:-

Tim Smyczek, Sam Groth, Alex Kuznetsov, Somdev Devvarman




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Kitzbuhel:- serve stats slightly favour the receiver, poor favourite success

Washington ATP:- serve stats slightly favour the server, average favourite success

Washington WTA:- serve stats slightly favour the server

Carlsbad:- serve stats favour the server




Todays Match Previews:-


Kitzbuhel is at the semi final stage today and after an excellent comeback victory yesterday against Fernando Verdasco, Robin Haase takes his 12-0 venue record into his match with Marcel Granollers.  Will it be lucky 13 for the Dutchman?  Or can Granollers (who has not had his serve broken all week) spoil Haase's 100% Kitzbuhel record.  I have these questions but for this I can't provide the answers as I make the prices (Granollers very marginal 1.90 favourite) about right.  Projected holds are close and around ATP mean, with Haase having a cigarette paper's edge.   He also should perform better on the key points, with a better projected break point clutch score.  However, he's played much more tennis lately and should be pretty tired by now (especially after a tough 3 setter yesterday), which turns things slightly in Granollers' favour (the bare stats make Haas about 1.80 for this).  I'm struggling to find much of an edge for this - apart from Haase's superior ability on key points.  Maybe I'll just watch this and not trade it - if I don't feel I have an edge then I won't get involved.


In the second semi-final in Austria, Albert Montanes takes on the tournament favourite Juan Monaco.  To say I was unimpressed with Monaco's return game against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday was an understatement and I had a red book in that match, as I expected him to put DGT's serve under way more pressure than he did in the second and third sets.  If that continues today, Montanes has a decent chance of making the final.  Basic stats make Monaco small value at 1.64 but it's not a huge edge by any means.  However, combining this with Montanes' low projected hold it does mean Montanes' serve can be opposed when realistically possible.


I will say now that the matches in the USA tonight may not appeal too much to those that like laying servers tonight.  Projected holds in these are generally very high and only underdogs have low projected holds (and those are factored into the prices).  I'm expecting many tight sets and tiebreaks this evening, although I have found some value...


In Washington, Dmitry Tursunov is, as is often the case, under-rated tonight against Marinko Matosevic.  He's very quietly built up a decent hard court record (8-3 in the last 12 months at ATP level) with several Challenger titles too.  That's much better than Matosevic's 9-13 record and I make the Russian good value at 1.92 for this.


John Isner must be full of confidence but doesn't tend to have the best fitness, struggling in the past with playing a lot of tennis.  He certainly has played a great deal in the past fortnight and I like the chances of a resurgent Marcos Baghdatis at 3.85 to grab the win against the big American.  Projected holds are super-high, as you might expect, but Baghdatis actually has the edge in those.  Laying Isner at 1.40 pre-match is mandatory (feel free to bail out at a first set tiebreak!).


As I've said before this week, I don't price matches on potential and Grigor Dimitrov's prices are exactly that.  We didn't get anywhere yesterday (although we did with Madison Keys who I made a similar point about) but being around evens with his hard court record against a player of Tommy Haas' calibre is a joke.  I make Haas 1.49 for this and feel the Bulgarian's limited return game will mean the German should be able to hold comfortably.  I want to see how the market prices a hold of serve for Haas because there may be value in backing him on serve for this.


In Carlsbad, I make Petra Kvitova a touch short at 1.30 against the giant-killing TennisRatings favourite, Virginie Razzano.  Projected holds are both high and I think Razzano can keep this closer than the odds suggest.


The bookies have made the match between Roberta Vinci and Ana Ivanovic even money apiece but I make Vinci the slight favourite, so there's a little value on her.  Projected holds are again high.


Projected holds are also high between Sam Stosur and Agnieszka Radwanska.  Stats make the Australian marginal value with Radwanska about 1.67 favourite for the match but I'm not sure how confident I'd be backing Stosur today.  She doesn't seem mentally strong enough right now to take this.


In WTA Washington, I like the chances of two underdogs to cause some trouble to their short priced opponents.


Monica Niculescu has impressive hard court stats (as I mentioned in my tournament previews last week when I backed her outright) and projected holds are pretty close (and a touch below average) between her and Ekaterina Makarova.  Makarova starts around the 1.50 mark and that makes her short in my view.  Opposing Makarova's serve makes some sense, especially as she's considered a strong server generally.


Angelique Kerber has not impressed me this week, playing in fits and starts against both Irina Falconi and Melanie Oudin.  If she maintains a low level against defending champion Magdalena Rybarikova she will be punished for it.  The Slovak has a good hard court record and I make this much closer than the 1.32 about Kerber suggests.  Projected holds are pretty close and around the WTA mean.


As usual, good luck in the markets!







Tennis Betting and Trading Recommendations, 

Tournament and Match Previews.

Thursday, August 1st, 2013


New articles have been added!  Click on the links: 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? - Part One 

Article - Which Young ATP Players Can Make It? Part Two


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Please note I will be on holiday from 2nd September until 17th September, inclusive.


29 July - 4 August Player Watchlist:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)

 Article - The Effect of Situational Factors in a Tennis Match



Red text = Knocked out

Blue text = Still in the tournament


Quarter-Finals+ and Travelling:- N/A

Last Week's Finalists:- Dominika Cibulkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, James Duckworth

Current Tournament Fatigue (2 x 30 game 3 setters):- N/A

Walkover/Retirement in last 2 weeks:- Horacio Zeballos (intercostal muscle), Andreas Haider-Maurer (back), Alex Bogomolov (back), Beatrice Capra (unknown)

Injury Absence for over 2 weeks:- Mardy Fish (only one match after 3 month absence), Radek Stepanek (hamstring since Wimbledon), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 months since French Open - abdominal strain), Victoria Azarenka (knee since Wimbledon), Michael Llodra (hamstring since Wimbledon)

Qualifiers:-

(Positive impact - WTA) - 

WASHINGTON:-

Michelle Larcher De Brito, Jessica Pegula, Alexandre Mueller, Irina Falconi

CARLSBAD:-

Marina Erakovic, Sesil Karatantcheva, Coco Vandeweghe, Sachie Ishizu

(Negative impact - ATP from 2nd round onwards) - 

KITZBUHEL:-

Jan Hajek

WASHINGTON:-

Tim Smyczek, Sam Groth, Alex Kuznetsov, Somdev Devvarman




Tournament Summaries:-

(For a detailed explanation, please click on this link)


Kitzbuhel:- serve stats slightly favour the receiver, poor favourite success

Washington ATP:- serve stats slightly favour the server, average favourite success

Washington WTA:- serve stats slightly favour the server

Carlsbad:- serve stats favour the server




Todays Match Previews:-


It's the quarter finals of Kitzbuhel today and play starts in just under an hour, at 11am. 


In the first match, Daniel Gimeno Traver will have a tough task against tournament favourite Juan Monaco.  The Argentine starts at around 1.45 and for me, that's about right.  Both players have a low projected hold but Gimeno-Traver's is considerably low, and I feel will struggle to hold serve today.  Monaco has broken 34.7% on clay in the last 12 months and with Gimeno-Traver below ATP average on serve himself (72.7%) it's only natural I will look to oppose the Gimeno-Traver serve if realistically possible.


Robin Haase has an 11-0 record at this tournament and has won the last two years.  He may well be suffering from fatigue after last week's final in Gstaad but I find it hard to make a case for his opponent, Fernando Verdasco, to be favourite for this.  The Spaniard is about 1.67 and that's actually about what I make Haase for this, based on the bare stats.  I've adjusted this for fatigue and I make this an even money match.  Haase has a higher of two projected holds which are just above ATP average.  With a high projected break point save percentage, backing Haase when losing at certain points (specified in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook) on serve appeals.


I make the prices about right in the match between Leonardo Mayer and Marcel Granollers.  Projected hold stats made Granollers slight value but Mayer's ability on break points pushed my model price back towards market values (2.5 on Mayer and 1.72 on Granollers).  It's quite a tough match to evaluate - Mayer has the lower projected hold but a much better projected break point save percentage.  Perhaps laying Mayer on serve on occasion, and getting out at break point(s) works, or laying Granollers' serve at a score like 30-40 or 40-A.  Definite in-game potential here, as opposed to starts of service games.


Finally yesterday's sensation and TennisRatings pick, Dominic Thiem, takes on Albert Montanes, 13 years his senior.  The Spanish veteran starts at 1.36 and maybe that's a little short.  Both projected holds are low and I'll be looking to lay Montanes' serve selectively, and perhaps Thiem's too if he gets in front.  It's worth noting in that the limited sample I have on Thiem, he's excellent at taking break points.


There's a lot of action later on in the USA with some matches in Washington interrupted or postponed from last night.  Both James Duckworth (recommended as value yesterday) and Tim Smyczek have chances of victories over more illustrious opponents with their matches currently on serve in the third set.


I previewed the delayed match between Jack Sock and Kei Nishikori yesterday, so I've pasted that below...


I really like the way that American prospect Jack Sock has taken to the ATP tour and followers would have done well from his victory over Igor Sijsling in the first round.  Today he takes on a favourite of mine, Kei Nishikori, but I can't make the Japanese value at 1.27.  I make him more like 1.40 for this so a lay from the start is a definite prospect.  


Milos Raonic has been in poor form lately and cannot be backed at 1.28 even against an opponent as mediocre as Marinko Matosevic.   As you might expect, projected holds are high but surely backing the Australian on a handicap has to be a viable bet here.  I've priced Raonic up at 1.39 and it's also worth mentioning his poor tiebreak record which does him no favours at all (17-20 = 46%).  No wonder he has drifted like a barge since Pinnacle opened at 1.16.


Another big server that represents no value is John Isner.  How many tiebreaks can he win?   Is he the reverse Robin Haase?  All these questions but one answer I do have is that he is no value at 1.29 against Somdev Devvarman who is nothing special but when projected holds are close and high, I can't make a case for anyone at 1.29.  


Grigor Dimitrov is being highly over-rated by the market this week and I'm opposing him again tonight against Sam Querrey.  Querrey on American soil is a difficult prospect and I'm stunned to see him available at 2.50 when my model made him 1.54 based on the projected hold stats, which don't make pleasant reading if you're a Dimitrov supporter.  On Hard courts, the Bulgarian has only won 3 out of 7 in 2013, and 8 from 16 in the last 12 months overall.  Projected holds are again high, with Querrey's in the 90's...


In WTA Washington, I've made Sorana Cirstea slight value against Alison Riske at 1.54.  Riske has had good grass court form of late but has a horrific hard court record, winning 1 of 7 in the WTA (this week versus Vania King).  Furthermore her record in hard court qualifiers is also poor.  Riske has a low projected hold and I will have to oppose her serve when I can in this.


I make Ekaterina Makarova a strong favourite but 1.20 against Caroline Garcia is too short for me.  Garcia was horrific in the first half of her last round match before staging a miraculous fightback to take it in three sets.  My stats make Makarova 1.35 so she has to be a lay from the start.


I also think Madison Keys is too short against Monica Niculescu, who may have too much savvyness for the young American, who is a huge prospect, but I don't price matches on potential (see Dimitrov).  I make Keys just a marginal favourite (1.89) for this and therefore, in a match with projected holds around average, will oppose her in some way shape or form with her starting at around 1.60.  Backing Niculescu on the set handicap is a definite option for fixed-odds punters.


In one of several matches that have left me scratching my head after looking at the prices, I make Heather Watson good value at around 3.10 against Alize Cornet.  Based on the stats, I made her slight favourite.  I presume I must have missed something there - is the match being played on clay instead?!


In Carlsbad, another match where the bookies have it all wrong in my opinion is Carla Suarez Navarro's match against Virginie Razzano.  The Spaniard's hard court record is not great at all (12-14 in the last 12 months holding just 52.9% of the time) so how she is 1.54 against an opponent that comfortably despatched Svetlana Kuznetsova is beyond me.  I'm looking to oppose the Suarez Navarro serve whenever possible in this - another match which is priced up closer to being correct if it was played on clay!


To finish off, I'm looking to lay two Serbians who are much better on clay than they are on hard courts as well.


Jelena Jankovic is priced at 1.59 to beat Urszula Radwanska and when you look at their stats this should be about 1.80.  Projected holds are a little low and if there's a few breaks early, this could be a match which descends into farce with more breaks than holds.  I've got to oppose Jankovic's serve at multiple opportunities considering she is poor value for this.


Finally Ana Ivanovic is way too short at 1.25 against Coco Vandeweghe, who has been quoted saying how much she loves it here and how much the US hard courts suit her game.  Projected holds are really high here and I feel the American can definitely keep this closer than the odds suggest, at least.  


Good luck in the markets and more tomorrow!



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