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Over the last couple of months, I started working on an ambitious project.
I was keen to see whether certain scorelines affected the viability of laying leading players, in an attempt to try and find 'sweet spots' in the market, as well as scorelines to avoid, where front runners tended to finish the job relatively easily.
After many hours of collating point by point data for 2015, I have now obtained full ATP and WTA data for scorelines with reference to retaining/losing break leads with further data on break-back success % depending on whether it was viable to enter the market immediately following a break lead, or whether it was worth waiting for the losing player to hold first (also taking advantage of the lower lay price due to time decay in the set).
Findings were very useful indeed - there is one scoreline across both the ATP and WTA where break-backs were achieved much higher than expected, and one scoreline in particular where players trying to break to win the set performed extremely badly. Knowledge of these spots will give a huge edge in the markets.
The screenshot below illustrates the scoreline at *1-0 in the first set in the ATP:-
Here we can see that in the ATP, 48.43% of players who broke in the opening game of the match to lead *1-0 were pegged back to being on serve at some point in the set. Therefore this figure represents the success percentage for laying the player a break up at *1-0 in the first set.
This figure fell to 41.05% if we did not lay immediately, and waited for both players to hold serve (hence we laid the leader at *2-1 instead). In the context of the overall data, this 7.38% difference was very large, and traders wishing to lay the player who broke in the opening game of the first set would be better off doing so immediately following the break.
However, at many stages in the match, this was not the case, and waiting for the hold was more advantageous (sometimes even with bigger success percentages than entering immediately). In this case, not only do traders benefit from a lower lay price due to time decay in the set, but they also avoid costly situations where the break leader breaks again to go a double break up.
This data enables traders to take advantage of inefficiencies in the markets, and is available for every scoreline in every set in the ATP and WTA. Due to its obvious high value in the trading markets, and the time that it took me to generate the data, this product will be priced at a premium level and is targeted towards serious traders.
All purchases come with a detailed guide of how to interpret/use the data.
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The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders).
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The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set!
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