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An objective way to assess front-runners and player fightbacks in matches is essential for successful Tennis Trading, and the Lead Loss/Recovery Data spreadsheets provide this.
I settled on three metrics to use to assess front-runners, and the opposite to quantify deficit recovery.
1) Taking the first break when player wins the 1st set.
2) Retention of the first set and break lead in the 2nd set.
3) Retention of the first break lead in the 3rd set.
Researching players' statistics in these areas allowed me to create a 'front-runner' and 'comeback' score for the ATP top 100, and a few other notable players - effectively a combined percentage that these players succeeded in retaining or recovering all three leading situations. Undertaking this research also allowed me to see individual player dynamics that exist - for example some players perform much better in gaining the first break of the 2nd set, but much worse at retaining a set and break lead, or vice-versa.
An example of the stats available for all players, highlighting Novak Djokovic, is below:-
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The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders).
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The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set!
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