Article - South Americans in European Challengers


Skype: @TennisRatings
SUBSCRIBE TO THE TENNISRATINGS YOUTUBE CHANNEL FOR THE LATEST TENNIS TRADING & TENNIS BETTING VIDEOS!


In the fourth of my series of articles about Americans abroad, I look at how South American Challenger players fare in matches in Europe.  

Now Pinnacle have recently started to offer Challenger matches as a betting proposition, there should be much better opportunities to get more realistic pricing of matches so this article is particularly relevant currently.

This research project was given to me by a Twitter follower – so if you would like me to analyse/research something for you then please get in touch.  There will be a number of articles and resources added between now and the start of the season in January.

I will be analysing Challenger tour matches (main draw only) for players currently ranked between 50 and 200 (as at 23rd October 2013).

For clarity, my policy on retirements here was void them if the first set wasn’t completed.

We’ve seen already that US players have a horrific record in general both in Europe and Asia/Australasia – do South American players continue in that vein?

Maximo Gonzalez appears to thrive on European soil...

Here’s the data for each player’s European matches:-

Horacio Zeballos:-

2012 – 18 matches, 13 wins – best win vs Maxime Authom (SP 2.05), worst defeat vs Marius Copil (SP 1.28).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£127 (ROI 7.06%).

2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Ivan Sergeyev (SP 1.27).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100.00%)

2012/2013 Combined – 19 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £27 (ROI 1.41%).

Federico Delbonis:-

2012 – 14 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Tommy Robredo (SP 2.80), worst defeat vs Jan Mertl (SP 1.18).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£480 (ROI -34.29%)

2013 – 16 matches, 11 wins  - best win vs Filippo Volandri (SP 1.78), worst defeat vs Jiri Vesely (SP 1.35).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£52 (ROI -3.25%)

2012/2013 Combined – 30 matches, 16 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£532 (ROI -17.73%).

Santiago Giraldo:-

2012 – no matches

2013 – 5 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Potito Starace (SP 1.65), worst defeat vs Pere Riba (SP 1.30).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£29 (ROI 5.80%)

Leonardo Mayer:-

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Nicolas Mahut (SP 1.42).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100.00%)

2013 – 8 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Benoit Paire (SP 2.38), worst defeat vs Ruben Bemelmans (SP 1.38).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £8 (ROI 1.00%)

2012/2013 Combined – 9 matches, 5 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£92 (ROI -10.22%)

Guido Pella:-

2012 – 3 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Thiago Alves (SP 1.72).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes  = -£300 (ROI -100.00%).

2013 – 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Dustin Brown (SP 1.56), worst defeat vs Agustin Velotti (SP 1.33).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£244 (ROI -61.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 7 matches, 1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£544 (ROI -77.71%)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzmann:-

2012 – no matches

2013 – 21 matches, 13 wins – best win vs Filippo Volandri (SP 3.26), worst defeat vs Riccardo Sinicropi (SP 1.15).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £82 (ROI 3.90%).

Alejandro Gonzalez:-

2012 – 9 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Grega Zemlja (SP 2.50), worst defeat vs Gastao Elias (SP 2.25).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£125 (ROI -13.89%).

2013 – 4 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Jonathan Eysseric (SP 2.25), worst defeat vs Lorenzo Giustino (SP 1.44).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£10 (ROI -2.50%).

2012/2013 Combined – 13 matches, 6 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£135 (ROI -12.27%)

Alejandro Falla:-

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Thomas Schoorel (SP 1.31).

2013 – no matches.

Rogerio Dutra Silva:-

2012 – 12 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Michael Russell (SP 2.17), worst defeat vs Matteo Viola (SP 1.60).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£341 (ROI -28.42%).

2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Antonio Veic (SP 1.65).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 13 matches, 6 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£441 (ROI -33.92%).

Joao Souza:-

2012 – 3 matches, 1 win – best win vs Teymuraz Gabashvili (SP 2.25), worst defeat vs Jan-Lennard Struff (SP 1.50).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£75 (ROI -25.00%).

2013 – 2 matches, 1 win – best win vs Federico Delbonis (SP 2.20), worst defeat vs David Goffin (SP 2.55).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £20 (ROI 10.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 5 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£55 (ROI -11.00%).

Martin Alund:-

2012 – 22 matches, 14 wins – best win vs Nikola Ciric (SP 2.00), worst defeat vs Toni Androic (SP 1.16).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£227 (ROI -10.32%)

2013 – 9 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Martin Fischer (SP 1.83), worst defeat vs Adrian Menendez-Maceiras (SP 1.44).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£231 (ROI -25.67%)

2012/2013 Combined – 31 matches, 18 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£458 (ROI -14.77%).

Facundo Bagnis:-

2012 – 13 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Daniel Brands (SP 2.62), worst defeat vs Alessio Di Mauro (SP 1.25) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£225 (ROI 17.31%).

2013 – 9 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Antonio Veic (SP 1.76), worst defeat vs David Guez (SP 1.38) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£291 (ROI -32.33%).

2012/2013 Combined – 22 matches, 12 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£66 (ROI -3.00%).

Paul Capdeville:-

2012 – 5 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Stephane Robert (SP 1.68), worst defeat vs Andre Begemann (SP 1.40) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£171 (ROI -34.20%).

2013 – 9 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Mikhail Kukushkin (SP 2.17), worst defeat vs Thiago Monteiro (SP 1.18) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £113 (ROI 12.56%).

2012/2013 Combined – 14 matches, 8 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£58 (ROI -4.14%).

Facundo Arguello:-

2012 – 12 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Roberto Bautista-Agut (SP 3.65), worst defeat vs Marin Draganja (SP 1.22) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £105 (ROI 8.75%).

2013 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Taro Daniel (SP 1.44) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200.

2012/2013 Combined – 14 matches, 6 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£95 (ROI -6.79%).

Guido Andreozzi:-

2012 – 5 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Thomas Schoorel (SP 1.60), worst defeat vs Alessio Di Mauro (SP 1.44) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£225 (ROI -45.00%).

2013 – 6 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Niels Desein (SP 1.50), worst defeat vs Marius Copil (SP 1.99) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£73 (ROI -12.17%).

2012/2013 Combined – 11 matches, 6 wins – Proift/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£298 (ROI -27.09%).

Thomaz Bellucci:-

2012 – 5 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Jan Hajek (SP 1.50), worst defeat N/A – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £157 (ROI 31.40%).

2013 – no matches

Maximo Gonzalez:-

2012 -  8 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Filippo Volandri (SP 2.90), worst defeat vs Stephane Robert (SP 1.50) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £137 (ROI 17.13%).

2013 – 14 matches, 9 wins – best win vs Jan Hajek (SP 2.83), worst defeat vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzmann (SP 1.86) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £211 (ROI 15.07%).

2012/2013 Combined – 22 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes =+£348 (ROI 15.82%).

Guilherme Clezar:-

2012 – 6 matches, 1 win – best win vs Dennis Zivkovic (SP 1.60), worst defeat vs Marek Michalicka (SP 2.04) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£540 (ROI -90.00%).

2013 - 5 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Alessandro Giannessi (SP 1.93), worst defeat vs Mikhail Kukushkin (SP 2.36) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£316 (ROI -63.20%).

2012/2013 Combined – 11 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£856 (ROI -77.82%).

Renzo Olivo:-

2012 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Dominik Meffert (SP 2.84) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100.00%)

2013 – 16 matches, 7 wins – best win vs Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo (SP 2.60), worst defeat vs Maxime Teixeira (SP 1.71) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£344 (ROI -21.50%).

2012/2013 Combined – 18 matches, 7 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£544 (ROI -30.22%)

Agustin Velotti:-

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Dominik Hrbaty (SP 1.50) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100.00%).

2013 – 3 matches, 1 win – best win vs Guido Pella (SP 3.37), worst defeat vs Stephane Robert (SP 2.81) – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £37 (ROI 12.33%).

2012/2013 Combined – 4 matches, 1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£63 (ROI -15.75%).

Overall Combined South American Top 200 Challenger Stats:-

2012 – 140 matches, 71 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£2233 (ROI -15.95%)

2013 – 139 matches, 74 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£1371 (ROI -9.86%)

2012/2013 Combined – 279 matches, 145 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£3604 (-12.92%)

It seems that all American based players have issues crossing the Atlantic, whether they are based in North or South America! 

Whilst the negative ROI for South American players in Challengers is pretty poor, it’s not quite as bad as the US players ROI in Europe or Asia on the main ATP Tour (-17.60% and -24.39% respectively) – but this is still poor, especially when you consider that many of these players are young and may have reasonable potential, and may therefore be slightly under-rated by the market.

20 year old Guilherme Clezar appears to really struggle in Europe, getting just 3 wins from 11 matches, generating an ROI of -77.82%, although it’s worth mentioning here that in most of those matches he was underdog.

Guido Pella has a mere 1 win from his 7 Challenger matches in Europe (with his higher ranking that would also indicate he doesn’t attempt to play many European events) and it could be very worthwhile opposing him in the future in Europe.

On the other hand, if it wasn’t for Maximo Gonzalez’s superb record of 13 wins from 22 matches (ROI 15.82%) including some decent wins as an underdog the overall stats for the South American players would look a great deal worse…

As usual, plenty of food for thought should be generated by this article and a blanket lay of almost all South American players in European Challengers can definitely be considered – particularly those with either a poor record already in these or those who show little desire to travel to Europe often.

A Selection of TennisRatings Products for 2017
 
Please visit the
TennisRatings Products links for a full overview of our fantastic Tennis Trading tools, and the TennisRatings Subscription Packages link to see our great value range of discounted subscription packages!

Please check out our testimonials page!

The TennisRatings Daily Trading Spreadsheets have never been more popular!  

To find out more on how these can dramatically improve your Tennis Trading, check out the YouTube Video we made.




The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders).

Subscriptions are available for 3 months:-


The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set!

INCLUDES FREE REGULAR UPDATES - THIS IS A ONE-TIME PURCHASE!

Comments