SUBSCRIBE TO THE TENNISRATINGS YOUTUBE CHANNEL FOR THE LATEST TENNIS TRADING & TENNIS BETTING VIDEOS!
There can be no doubt that the performances of Gilles Simon this week were incredible and statistically defying – having left the court on crutches at the Kooyong Exhibition after turning his ankle, he has been abandoned by the market, yet somehow defeated Daniel Brands 16-14 in the final set of his first round match, before following this up with a 5-set win over Marin Cilic, coming back from 2-1 down to destroy the Croat in the final two sets.
The victory (and his comeback) against Cilic in particular was a shock to many, including myself, as there can be no doubt which player expended more energy in their first round match, as well as the obvious injury doubt over Simon as well.
So what I decided to do for this article is to assess the effect of a long final set in a Grand Slam on a player’s subsequent match, with a view to seeing if there were any profitable betting or trading angles that we can exploit in the future. Obviously this effect is unique to Grand Slams as they are unique to ATP/WTA matches in that they don’t have a final set tie-break (except for the US Open, which does).
For clarity, a long final set is considered to be any final set which is equal to or longer than 10-8 in scoreline.
From the table below, we can see that there were just 34 matches in the ATP/WTA combined where a player won the final set by a scoreline of 10-8 or more between 2010-2013, so the sample wasn't fantastic, but shows some interesting trends.
22 matches were in the ATP where I'd expect the effect of the long match to be bigger, given that the men play 5 sets. Just 7 ATP players won their subsequent match, with 14 losing. Fognini gave a walkover following an 11-9 final set win in the previous round.
In those 22 matches, should the player that won the previous round match by 10-8 or more in the final set have been backed with £100 level stakes, the loss incurred would have been £767 which generated a return of invesment of -36.52%. Whilst the sample is small, there can be little doubt that this return is shocking.
However, when comparing favourites to underdogs, the contrast is stark.
When an ATP player won the final set of the previous round match by 10-8 or more, and was favourite in the next match, they actually won their subsequent match 6 out of 7 times, compared to just 1 win from 14 when the player started their next match as underdog. That win was our friend Gilles Simon, illustrating just how much he bucked the statistical trend with his win over Cilic.
WTA players also incurred a loss when backing them for £100 level stakes in their subsequent match following a 10-8+ third set win, although the sample was tiny. They won 5 of the 12 next round matches, and several underdogs (Wickmayer at 2.02 and Petrova at 3.24) won their next match.
Only three players were favourites in their next match in the WTA and they all emerged victorious (Makarova at 1.26, Paszek at 1.52 and McHale at 1.29).
It's very interesting to see the negative impact on the underdogs compared to the favourites, with the underdogs obviously tending to be the lower-ranked player. This goes along with my research for the impact of 5-set matches on lower ranked players, where they generated a horrific ROI for their next match following a 5-set victory.
Overall, the loss incurred when backing WTA players here was £267, generating an ROI of -22.25% - not as bad as the ATP, although it's not pretty. When the two tours were combined, the loss was -£1034, and the ROI was -31.33%.
A final area that I want to quickly look at is the underdogs in play. 3 of the 23 underdogs won the match, but a further 6 led in sets and eventually lost, so from this small sample it appears that laying these underdogs in-play could well be viable when leading by a set.
Below is the table with the sample data:-
* Isner and De Bakker played each other in the subsequent round
A Selection of TennisRatings Products for 2017
Please visit the
TennisRatings Products links for a full overview of our fantastic Tennis Trading tools, and the TennisRatings Subscription Packages link to see our great value range of discounted subscription packages!
Please check out our testimonials page!
The TennisRatings Daily Trading Spreadsheets have never been more popular!
To find out more on how these can dramatically improve your Tennis Trading, check out the YouTube Video we made.
The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders).
Subscriptions are available for 3 months:-
The Lead Loss/Recovery Data Spreadsheets have taken the Tennis Trading World by storm - discussed in detail in October 2015 at the Matchbook Traders Conference these incredible spreadsheets highlight lead loss & deficit recovery in individual sets, as well as how often a player loses/gains the first break of the second set based on whether they won or lost the first set!
INCLUDES FREE REGULAR UPDATES - THIS IS A ONE-TIME PURCHASE!