Article - Americans Abroad - Part Two


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In the second part of a 7-part series of articles (part one is available via this Link), I look at how American players fare abroad.  This research project was given to me by a Twitter follower – so if you would like me to analyse/research something for you then please get in touch.  There will be a number of articles and resources added between now and the start of the season in January.

I’m splitting this analysis into a number of categories – US male players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian main draw ATP events only (split into European and Asian/Australasian events), South American players with any rank playing European Challengers (this research area was specifically suggested) and US female players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian WTA events (split into European and Asian/Australasian events).

For clarity, my policy on retirements here was void them if the first set wasn’t completed, and I’m using Pinnacle Sports starting prices for my analysis.

There are currently 16 US players in the ATP top 100 with John Isner – ranked 16 – leading the pack.  Only him and Sam Querrey are currently ranked inside the top 75 in the world.

There’s been a fair amount said previously about a potential negative mindset with American players abroad so this analysis will see whether that is indeed the case…

There hasn't been much to celebrate for Ryan Harrison in Asia so far in his career...

Here’s the data for each player’s Asian/Australasian matches:-

(Stats correct upto & including 7th October, 2013)

John Isner:

2012 – 6 matches, 3 wins – best win vs David Nalbandian (SP 2.00), worst defeat vs Bobby Reynolds (SP 1.21).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£134 (ROI -22.33%).

2013 – 5 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Roberto Bautista-Agut (SP 1.52), worst defeat vs Ryan Harrison (SP 1.72).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£93 (ROI -18.60%)

2012/2013 Combined – 11 matches, 5 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£227 (ROI -20.64%).

Sam Querrey:

2012 – 10 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Kei Nishikori (SP 2.17), worst defeat vs Victor Hanescu (SP 1.31).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£217 (ROI -21.70%)

2013 – 10 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Stanislas Wawrinka (SP 3.87), worst defeat vs Phillip Kohlschreiber (SP 1.68).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £155 (ROI 15.50%)

2012/2013 Combined – 20 matches, 11 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£62 (ROI 3.10%).

Jack Sock:

2012 – no matches

2013 – no matches

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = N/A

Denis Kudla:

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Tommy Haas (SP 3.09)

2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Jurgen Melzer (SP 2.49)

2012/2013 Combined – 2 matches, 0 wins - Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100.00%)

Michael Russell:

2012 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Fabio Fognini (SP 1.47).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100.00%).

2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Tomas Berdych (SP 16.01).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 3 matches, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£300 (ROI -100.00%)

Tim Smyczek:

2012 – no matches.

2013 – 2 matches, 1 win – best win vs Ivo Karlovic (SP 2.24), worst defeat vs David Ferrer (SP 41.60)

2012/2013 Combined – 2 matches, 1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£24 (ROI 12.00%).

Ryan Harrison:

2012 – 6 matches, 1 win – best win vs Sam Querrey (SP 2.02), worst defeat vs Phillip Kohlschreiber (SP 2.25).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£398 (ROI -66.33%).

2013 – 8 matches, 3 wins (1 voided after 1st set retirement) – best win vs John Isner (SP 2.30), worst defeat vs Horacio Zeballos (SP 1.43).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£487 (ROI -69.57%).

2012/2013 Combined – 14 matches, 4 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£885 (ROI -63.21%).

Alex Kuznetsov:

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A,  worst defeat vs Rafael Nadal (SP 41.60).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%).

2013 – No matches

2012/2013 Combined – 1 match, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%).

Rajeev Ram: 

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Alejandro Falla (SP 2.05).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100.00%).

2013 – 5 matches, 1 win – best win vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (SP 2.90), worst defeat vs Dudi Sela (SP 2.45).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£210 (ROI -42.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 6 matches, 1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£310 (ROI -51.67%).

Rhyne Williams:

2012 – no matches

2013 – 1 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Florian Mayer (SP 5.90).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)

2012/2013 Combined – 1 match, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%).

Donald Young:

2012 – 5 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Yen-Hsun Lu (SP 2.42), worst defeat vs Alejandro Falla (SP 1.68).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£96 (ROI -19.20%).

2013 – no matches

2012/2013 Combined – 5 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£96 (ROI -19.20%).

James Blake:

2012 – no matches

2013 – no matches

Bradley Klahn:

2012 – no matches

2013 – no matches

Wayne Odesnik:

2012 – no matches

2013 – no matches

Bobby Reynolds:

2012 – 3 matches, 2 wins – best win vs John Isner (SP 5.14), worst defeat vs Jarkko Nieminen (SP 3.00).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£622 (ROI 207.33%).

2013 – no matches

2012/2013 Combined – 3 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £622 (ROI 207.33%).

Overall Combined US Top 150 Stats:-

2012 – 34 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£723 (ROI -21.26%)

2013 – 33 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£911 (ROI -27.67%)

2012/2013 Combined – 67 matches, 26 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£1634 (-24.39%)

Clearly we can see from the combined stats that US men have struggled badly in Asian and Australian matches as well as the European matches, and actually even more so with a combined ROI of -24.39% compared to the European matches ROI of -17.60%.  

There’s certainly some shocking records in there, with Ryan Harrison’s 4-10 (-63.21% ROI) record absolutely horrific.  Considering this information, perhaps it is much less of a surprise that he lost – priced at 1.43 – on hard court in Tokyo against Horacio Zeballos last week, who has a terrible record away from clay.

As with the European matches, a blanket strategy of opposing US players in Asia can definitely be considered and it would surprise me greatly if this situation was reversed in the future – when you consider that the young US players – Sock, Kudla, Kuznetsov, Williams, Smyczek and Klahn have shown almost zero interest in playing in Asia, preferring to play US Challengers than Asian ATP events where sometimes they’d have a high enough ranking to get in directly, and definitely a high enough ranking to have a decent chance of getting through qualifying.

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