Article - Americans Abroad - Part Three


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In the third of my series of articles, I look at how American players fare in matches on US soil.  This research project was given to me by a Twitter follower – so if you would like me to analyse/research something for you then please get in touch.  There will be a number of articles and resources added between now and the start of the season in January.

I’m splitting this analysis into a number of categories – US male players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian main draw ATP events only (split into European and Asian/Australasian events), those same players playing US based events, South American players with any rank playing European Challengers (this research area was specifically suggested) and US female players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian WTA events (split into European and Asian/Australasian events) and those same players playing US based events.

For clarity, my policy on retirements here was void them if the first set wasn’t completed, and I’m using Pinnacle Sports starting prices for my analysis.

There are currently 16 US players in the ATP top 100 with John Isner – ranked 16 – leading the pack.  Only him and Sam Querrey are currently ranked inside the top 75 in the world.

Sam Querrey has an equally poor record in the US as in other parts of the world...


We’ve seen already that US players have a horrific record in general both in Europe and Asia/Australasia – how does that compare to their record in America?

Here’s the data for each player’s American matches:-

John Isner:

2012 – 35 matches, 28 wins – best win vs Novak Djokovic (SP 7.23), worst defeat vs Philipp Kohlschreiber (SP 1.25).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£882 (ROI 25.20%).

2013 – 39 matches, 29 wins – best win vs Novak Djokovic (SP 7.67), worst defeat vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin (SP 1.24).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£1525 (ROI 39.10%)

2012/2013 Combined – 74 matches, 57 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £2407 (ROI 32.53%).

Sam Querrey:

2012 – 27 matches, 18 wins – best win vs Kevin Anderson (SP 2.69), worst defeat vs Dudi Sela (SP 1.21).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£118 (ROI -4.37%)

2013 – 21 matches, 12 wins – best win vs Denis Istomin (SP 1.79), worst defeat vs Tim Smyczek (SP 1.22).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£420 (ROI -20.00%)

2012/2013 Combined – 48 matches, 30 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£538 (ROI -11.21%).

Jack Sock:

2012 – 12 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Florian Mayer (SP 6.20), worst defeat vs Flavio Cipolla (SP 1.72).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£469 (ROI 39.08%)

2013 – 18 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Milos Raonic (SP 11.52), worst defeat vs Jan Hernych (SP 1.64).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£596 (ROI 33.11%)

2012/2013 Combined – 30 matches, 13 wins - Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£1065 (ROI 35.50%)

Denis Kudla:

2012 – 7 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Jack Sock (1.94), worst defeat vs Antonio Veic (1.97).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£316 (ROI -45.14%)

2013 – 6 matches, 1 win – best win vs Jiri Vesely (SP 1.96), worst defeat vs Samuel Groth (SP 1.52).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£404 (ROI -67.33%)

2012/2013 Combined – 13 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£720 (ROI -55.38%)

Michael Russell:

2012 – 15 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Mardy Fish (SP 5.14), worst defeat vs Marinko Matosevic (SP 1.67).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£738 (ROI 49.20%).

2013 – 14 matches, 7 wins – best win vs Igor Sijsling (SP 3.64), worst defeat vs Tim Smyczek (SP 1.81).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£171 (ROI 12.21%).

2012/2013 Combined – 29 matches, 15 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£909 (ROI 31.34%)

Tim Smyczek:

2012 – 8 match, 3 wins – best win vs Denis Istomin (SP 3.49), worst defeat vs Bobby Reynolds (SP 2.00).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£78 (ROI 9.75%).

2013 – 17 matches, 7 wins – best win vs Sam Querrey (SP 5.00), worst defeat vs Steve Johnson (SP 1.73)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£125 (ROI 7.35%).

2012/2013 Combined – 25 matches, 10 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£203 (ROI 8.12%).

Ryan Harrison:

2012 – 24 matches, 15 wins – best win vs Benjamin Becker (SP 1.83), worst defeat vs James Blake (SP 1.35).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£139 (ROI -5.79%).

2013 – 17 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Lleyton Hewitt (SP 2.53), worst defeat vs Daniel Munoz De La Nava (SP 1.40).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£550 (ROI -32.35%).

2012/2013 Combined – 41 matches, 21 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£689 (ROI -16.80%).

Alex Kuznetsov:

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Michael Russell (SP 2.97)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)

2013 – 4 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Kenny De Schepper (SP 2.72), worst defeat vs Michael Russell (SP 2.20).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£63 (ROI 15.75%).

2012/2013 Combined – 5 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£37 (ROI -7.40%).

Rajeev Ram: 

2012 – 11 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Brian Baker (SP 4.26), worst defeat vs Steve Johnson (SP 2.22).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£526 (ROI 47.82%).

2013 – 7 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Fabio Fognini (SP 5.94), worst defeat vs Michal Przysiezny (SP 1.54).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£28 (ROI 4.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 7 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£554 (ROI 30.78%).

Rhyne Williams:

2012 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Frederico Gil (SP 2.69)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%)

2013 – 13 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Denis Kudla (SP 2.60), worst defeat vs Santiago Giraldo (SP 2.20)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£355 (ROI -27.31%)

2012/2013 Combined – 15 matches, 5 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£555 (ROI -37.00%).

Donald Young:

2012 – 11 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Grigor Dimitrov (SP 2.95), worst defeat vs Steve Johnson (SP 1.48).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£560 (ROI -50.91%).

2013 – 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Martin Klizan (SP 1.90), worst defeat vs Michael Russell (SP 1.90).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£310 (ROI -77.50%).

2012/2013 Combined – 15 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£870 (ROI -58.00%).

James Blake:

2012 – 12 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Ryan Harrison (SP 3.54), worst defeat vs Tobias Kamke (SP 1.59).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£197 (ROI -16.42%).

2013 – 17 matches, 8 wins – best win vs Jerzy Janowicz (SP 2.99), worst defeat vs Marinko Matosevic (SP 1.44).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£107 (ROI -6.29%).

2012/2013 Combined – 29 matches, 13 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£304 (ROI -10.48%).

Bradley Klahn:

2012 – 3 matches, 1 win – best win vs Jurgen Melzer (SP 3.21), worst defeat vs Paolo Lorenzi (SP 1.88).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£21 (ROI 7.00%)

2013 – 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Kenny De Schepper (SP 1.38), worst defeat vs Jack Sock (SP 2.26).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£262 (ROI -65.50%).

2012 Combined – 7 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£241 (ROI -34.42%).

Wayne Odesnik:

2012 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Paolo Lorenzi (SP 1.67).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%).

2013 – 2 matches, 1 win – best win vs Roberto Bautista-Agut (SP 2.84), worst defeat vs Stanislas Wawrinka (SP 6.61).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£84 (ROI 42.00%).

2012/2013 Combined – 4 matches, 1 win – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£116 (ROI -29.00%).

Bobby Reynolds:

2012 – 5 matches, 1 win – best win vs Ivo Karlovic (SP 3.74), worst defeat vs Tim Smyczek (SP 1.94).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£126 (ROI -31.50%).

2013 – 4 matches, 1 win – best win vs Benjamin Becker (SP 2.10), worst defeat vs Steve Johnson/Yen-Hsun Lu (both SP 2.54).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£190 (ROI -47.50%).

2012/2013 Combined – 9 matches, 2 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£316 (ROI -35.11%).

Overall Combined US Top 150 Stats:-

2012 – 175 matches, 94 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£758 (ROI 4.33%)

2013 – 187 matches, 91 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£6 (ROI -0.03%)

2012/2013 Combined – 362 matches, 185 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = +£752 (ROI 2.08%)

As we can see from the above figures, on the whole backing US players in American events generates a very small 2.08% return on investment.  Considering the Pinnacle ‘juice’ is several percent, this is solid without being anything near spectacular – and not worth adopting as a blanket strategy.

Furthermore, without John Isner’s incredible stats being included the combined results drop to 288 matches, 128 wins with a loss of £1655 being incurred (ROI of -5.75%) which would indicate the lower level players do not compete as well as the market expects them to on home soil.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, Isner’s results at US venues is magnificent and a 32.53% ROI generated from 74 matches is reason enough to consider backing him almost blindly when he plays in America.  Looking at his results in this article and in the previous two articles, it’s obvious that he gains the vast majority of his wins and ranking points in the US and I’d be highly surprised if that changed in the near future.

As for Sam Querrey, his ROI of -11.21% over the sample shows he is not such a viable betting proposition.  In fact in his last 50 matches anywhere he has a ROI of -20.2% which reflects the fact that currently he is quite strongly over-rated by the market.

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