Article - Americans Abroad Part Six - WTA Players in Asia/Australasia


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Varvara Lepchenko has a poor record in Asia/Australasia in the past two years, winning rarely and never winning as an underdog...


In this sixth part of a 7-part series of articles, I continue to look at how American players fare abroad. 

I’ve split this analysis into a number of categories – US male players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian main draw ATP events only (split into European and Asian/Australasian events), South American players with any rank playing European Challengers (this research area was specifically suggested) and US female players in the top 150 playing non-US/Canadian main draw WTA events (split into European and Asian/Australasian events).

In the previous articles, we’ve already seen that American players in the ATP have a generally terrible record abroad, both in Europe and Asia/Australasia, but on the WTA tour the players excellent in Europe, particularly those of a higher rank.

For clarity, my policy on retirements here was void them if the first set wasn’t completed, and I’m using Pinnacle Sports starting prices for my analysis.

There are currently 16 US players in the WTA top 150 with Serena Williams – ranked 1 – unsurprisingly leading the pack.  Only her and Sloane Stephens are currently ranked inside the top 20 in the world, with Jamie Hampton, Madison Keys, Venus Williams and Bethanie Mattek-Sands also joining them in the top 50.

Here’s the data for each player’s Asian/Australasian matches:-

(Stats correct upto & including 21st December, 2013)

Serena Williams:

2012 – 7 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Channelle Scheepers (SP 1.06), worst defeat vs Ekaterina Makarova (SP 1.09).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£177 (ROI -25.29%).

2013 – 15 matches, 14 wins – best win vs Caroline Wozniacki (SP 1.17), worst defeat vs Sloane Stephens (SP 1.04).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£19 (ROI -1.27%)

2012/2013 Combined – 22 matches, 19 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£196 (ROI -8.91%).

Sloane Stephens:

2012 – 2 matches, 1 win – best win vs Silvia Soler-Espinosa (SP 1.76), worst defeat vs Svetlana Kuznetsova (SP 6.60).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£24 (ROI -12.00%)

2013 – 18 matches, 13 wins – best win vs Serena Williams (SP 19.27), worst defeat vs Eugenie Bouchard (SP 1.57).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £1969 (ROI 109.39%)

2012/2013 Combined – 20 matches, 14 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £1945 (ROI 97.25%).

Jamie Hampton:

2012 – 11 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Kaia Kanepi (SP 3.54), worst defeat vs Monica Niculescu (SP 2.91).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£22 (ROI -2.00%)

2013 – 7 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Jie Zheng (SP 2.07), worst defeat vs Agnieszka Radwanska (SP 7.01)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £108 (ROI 15.43%)

2012/2013 Combined – 18 matches, 11 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £86 (ROI 4.78%)

Madison Keys:

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – worst defeat vs Jie Zheng (SP 7.65).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)

2013 – 15 matches, 10 wins – best win vs Carla Suarez Navarro (SP 2.63), worst defeat vs Sam Stosur (SP 2.19)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £355 (ROI 23.67%)

2012/2013 Combined – 16 matches, 10 wins - Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £255 (ROI 15.94%)

Venus Williams:

2012 – no matches

2013 – 9 matches, 6 wins – best win vs Victoria Azarenka (SP 6.72), worst defeat vs Sabine Lisicki (SP 1.81).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £617 (ROI 68.56%).

Bethanie Mattek-Sands:

2012 – 3 matches, 1 win – best win vs Ashleigh Barty (SP 1.18), worst defeat vs Sorana Cirstea (SP 1.88).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£182 (ROI -60.67%)

2013 – 6 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (SP 3.16), worst defeat vs Karolina Pliskova (SP 1.63).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £312 (ROI 52.00%)

2012/2013 Combined – 9 matches, 5 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £130 (ROI 14.44%).

Varvara Lepchenko:

2012 – 7 matches, 4 wins – best win vs Tamira Paszek (SP 1.67), worst defeat vs Kaia Kanepi (SP 3.08).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£101 (ROI -14.43%).

2013 – 9 matches, 2 wins – best win vs Heather Watson (SP 1.89), worst defeat vs Timea Babos (SP 1.36).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£580 (ROI -64.44%).

2012/2013 Combined – 16 matches, 6 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£681 (ROI -42.56%).

Alison Riske:

2012 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Urszula Radwanska (SP 1.95).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%).

2013 – no matches

2012/2013 Combined – 2 matches, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%).

Christina McHale: 

2012 – 7 matches, 3 wins – best win vs Lucie Safarova (SP 2.96), worst defeat vs Kai-Chen Chang (SP 1.32).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£125 (ROI -17.86%).

2013 – 3 matches, 0 wins – best win vs N/A, worst defeat vs Pauline Parmentier (SP 1.53).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£300 (ROI -100%).

2012/2013 Combined – 10 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£425 (ROI -42.50%).

Lauren Davis:

2012 – no matches

2013 – 7 matches, 3 wins – best win vs Mona Barthel (SP 3.26), worst defeat vs Daria Gavrilova (SP 1.50).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £10 (ROI 1.43%)

2012/2013 Combined – 7 matches, 3 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £10 (ROI 1.43%).

Vania King:

2012 –11 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (SP 2.35), worst defeat vs Kiki Bertens (SP 1.47).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£304 (ROI -27.64%).

2013 – 9 matches, 5 wins – best win vs Flavia Pennetta (SP 3.34), worst defeat vs Anastasia Rodionova (SP 1.60).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £391 (ROI 43.44%)

2012/2013 Combined – 20 matches, 10 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £87 (ROI 4.35%).

Coco Vandeweghe:

2012 – no matches

2013 – 2 matches, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Eleni Daniilidou (SP 2.01)

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%)

2012/2013 Combined – 2 matches, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£200 (ROI -100%)

Shelby Rogers:

2012 – no matches

2013 – no matches

Melanie Oudin:

2012 – no matches

2013 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Laura Robson (SP 4.31).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)

2012/2013 Combined – 1 match, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%).

Mallory Burdette:

2012 – no matches

2013 – no matches

Irina Falconi:

2012 – 1 match, 0 wins – best win N/A, worst defeat vs Alberta Brianti (SP 1.78).

Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)

2013 – no matches.

2012/2013 Combined – 1 match, 0 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£100 (ROI -100%)

Overall Combined US Top 150 Stats:-

2012 – 52 matches, 25 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = -£1335 (ROI -25.67%)

2013 – 101 matches, 62 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £2563 (ROI 25.38%)

2012/2013 Combined – 153 matches, 87 wins – Profit/Loss to level £100 stakes = £1228 (8.03%)

The first statement I need to make regarding these figures is that the results are severely influenced by Sloane Stephens’ victory over fellow US player Serena Williams (SP 19.27) at the Australian Open.

Should this match be discounted from the analysis, the 2013 results drop to £836 profit with an ROI of 8.44%, and the overall combined results drop to -£499 profit (ROI of -3.30%). 

Having said that, there is no doubt that the bigger sample size of 2013 has produced some more impressive results for US WTA players in Asia than the smaller 2012 sample.  Overall sample size is a fair bit smaller than the European results.

Some overall 2012/2013 stats which may be of interest, for US players overall:-

ATP US players in Europe, Asia and Australasia:-

201 matches, 79 wins (39.30% win percentage), profit/loss based on £100 stakes = -£3993 (ROI of -19.87%)

WTA US players in Europe, Asia and Australasia:-

442 matches, 261 wins (59.05% win percentage), profit/loss based on £100 stakes = £5580 (ROI of 12.62%)

WTA US players in Europe, Asia and Australasia (discounting Stephens v Serena Williams):-

440 matches, 260 wins (59.09% win percentage), profit/loss based on £100 stakes = £3853 (ROI of 8.76%)

Looking at the above profit and loss statements, it’s clear to see that WTA players have no problem playing abroad whatsoever, and have had some very impressive results, including several finals this year from various players. Even when discounting the Stephens v Williams upset, there was an ROI of 8.76% generated from a decent sample of 440 matches.

This is in extreme contrast to the ATP results.  The men have almost a 20% decrease in their win percentage, and the ROI of -19.87% is shocking.  As discussed in previous articles, there can be no real alternative but to pretty much blanket lay all American ATP players when playing abroad, based on these stats.

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