2015 Season - Week 7 Tournament Previews


Week seven of the 2015 brings five more tournament action to bettors and traders, with three ATP 250 events in Marseille (Indoor Hard), Delray Beach (Hard) and Rio de Janeiro (clay), and WTA events in Dubai (Premier level, hard) and Rio (International, clay).

Matches got underway in Dubai yesterday and commence today in the other four tournaments and as always, detailed daily data will be available via the ATP/WTA daily trading spreadsheets, which can be purchased via the links on the right.

I'm somewhat behind this week after a weekend away with my wife so I'll just run through the numbers quickly for each event, as opposed to doing a detailed preview of contenders.

Week Seven Trading Overview (only matches where point by point data is available):-

Only matches where point by point available










Matches

S1 Winner Train S2

S2 Non Train

Train %

Set 3

S3 Player Breaks 1st Trains

S3 Non Train

Train %

ATP









Marseille

26

16

10

61.5

8

7

1

87.5

Delray Beach

23

10

13

43.5

9

4

5

44.4

Rio de Janeiro

25

7

18

28.0

12

5

7

41.7

Week 2 Overall

74

33

41

44.6

29

16

13

55.2

WTA









Dubai

39

12

27

30.8

8

2

6

25.0

Rio de Janeiro

31

9

22

29.0

9

3

6

33.3

Week 2 Overall

70

21

49

59.8

17

5

12

58.3



The table above illustrates the percentage of situations that 'trained' in these events in 2014.  

As I mentioned in the previous previews, I've had some questions about trains on Twitter so I'll clarify this a little better - a train would be a situation where there is no upward price swing from a given position.  Therefore in these instances, a set one winner train in set two would indicate that they took a set and break lead in set two and retained this lead without being broken back.  A non-train would include the player that lost the first set breaking first in set two, or recovering a set and break deficit, or even recovering one break when a set and double break down.

Likewise, a set three train in this instance would be a player that has broken first and retains this lead throughout the deciding set.

A quick summary of events shows that Marseille should be treated very carefully by swing traders.  Conditions are fast and there were many trains in 2014.  A better angle would be backing value players to win 2-0 in sets.

Delray Beach was closer to the mean whilst Rio, in both the ATP and WTA, looks to have excellent trading conditions with few trains and many swings.  Dubai, considering the big player ability discrepancy due to it's Premier status, also has strong numbers for good trading conditions.

A quick summary of conditions is below:-

ATP Marseille:- 2014 data shows 4.4% greater service holds than ATP Indoor Hard average.  Conditions are likely to be fast with few swings and breaks of serve.
ATP Delray Beach:- 2014 data shows 2.5% fewer service holds than ATP Hard court average.  Conditions are likely to be a little slow with around as many in-set swings as should be expected.
ATP Rio de Janiero:- 2014 data shows 4.8% fewer service holds than ATP Clay court average.  Conditions are likely to be very slow and incredibly swingy, with many breaks of serve.  EXCELLENT trading conditions.

WTA Dubai:- 2014 data shows 0.7% greater service holds than WTA Hard court average.  Conditions are likely to be around average, with a decent amount of swings and break-backs.
WTA Rio de Janeiro:- 2014 data shows 6.0% fewer service holds than WTA Clay court average.  As with the ATP event in Rio, conditions are likely to be very slow and incredibly swingy, with many breaks of serve.  EXCELLENT trading conditions.

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