2015 Season - Week 15 Tournament Previews


This week's tournaments got underway several hours ago and this week promises to be another busy one, with five ATP/WTA events, in addition to SIX Challenger tournaments!

Three of the five ATP and WTA tournaments are new to the calendar, in Estoril (which has been moved up the road from Oeiras) and Istanbul, on the ATP side, whilst Prague has been added to the WTA schedule.

As always, detailed daily data will be available via the ATP/WTA daily trading spreadsheets, which can be purchased via the links on the right.

With new venues on the schedule, historical information is impossible to source for these three tournaments.  

Such a busy schedule means time is a premium this week so again I'll stick to the basics and give the raw stats with not much commentary.

Week 15 Trading Overview (only matches where point by point data is available):-

Only matches where point by point available










Matches

S1 Winner Train S2

S2 Non Train

Train %

Set 3

S3 Player Breaks 1st Trains

S3 Non Train

Train %

ATP









Munich

25

8

17

32.0

10

6

4

60.0

WTA









Marrakech

30

15

15

50.0

8

5

3

62.5


The table above illustrates the percentage of situations that 'trained' in these events in 2014.  

As I mentioned in the previous previews, I've had some questions about trains on Twitter so I'll clarify this a little better - a train would be a situation where there is no upward price swing from a given position.  Therefore in these instances, a set one winner train in set two would indicate that they took a set and break lead in set two and retained this lead without being broken back.  A non-train would include the player that lost the first set breaking first in set two, or recovering a set and break deficit, or even recovering one break when a set and double break down.

Likewise, a set three train in this instance would be a player that has broken first and retains this lead throughout the deciding set.

The two tournaments which were played last year are in stark contrast to each other!

The men's event in Munich had less trains than WTA Marrakech, which is a real rarity, with the train percentage in Morocco the highest I can remember for a WTA event since I added these weekly previews at the start of the season.  This is strange as the service hold figures for Marrakech indicate the venue is very slow...

ATP 250 Munich:-

2014 service hold 75.1% (Clay Court Mean 75.7%)

Conditions are likely to be around average, although last year's data indicate there were plenty of fightbacks...

2014 Champion: Martin Klizan (beat Fabio Fognini in the final)
Predicted Weather: 16 degrees C, rain.

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Kohlschreiber

78.6

29.3

107.9

Monfils

77

30.3

107.3

Murray

76.1

30.9

107.0

Bautista-Agut

78.0

29.0

107.0

Andujar

75.7

31.0

106.7

Goffin

74.3

32.2

106.5

Vesely

80.0

21.6

101.6

Fognini

70.8

30.5

101.3

Thiem

72.9

27.2

100.1

Troicki

77.9

19.5

97.4


ATP 250 Istanbul:-

2014 service hold N/A% (Clay Court Mean 75.7%)

Conditions are unknown.

Predicted Weather: 20 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Federer

88.3

26.4

114.7

Cuevas P

81.8

28.0

109.8

Dimitrov

86.1

22.1

108.2

Giraldo

79.8

25.0

104.8

Gimeno-Traver

76.7

27.9

104.6

Lajovic

79.6

23.8

103.4

Dodig

79.0

22.5

101.5

Haider-Maurer

78.5

21.7

100.2

Bellucci

78.8

21.2

100.0

Schwartzman

65.0

32.4

97.4


ATP 250 Estoril:-

2014 service hold N/A% (Clay Court Mean 75.7%)

Conditions are unknown.

Predicted Weather: 20 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Robredo

83.0

24.4

107.4

Garcia-Lopez

74.7

31.2

105.9

Gasquet

76.7

28.6

105.3

Almagro

81.1

23.1

104.2

Anderson

84.5

18.1

102.6

Mayer L

80.4

21.4

101.8

Ramos

74.7

27.1

101.8

Kyrgios *

77.1

23.7

100.8

Lopez

82.1

17.0

99.1

Coric *

71.8

22.9

94.7





*Included Adjusted Challenger stats





WTA International Prague:-

2014 service hold N/A% (Clay Court Mean 63.4%)

Conditions are unknown.

Predicted Weather: 16 degrees C, mixed.

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Kuznetsova

68.7

46.5

115.2

Begu

63.7

44.6

108.3

Brengle

70.4

37.8

108.2

Safarova

70.5

36.8

107.3

Bencic

65.4

39.5

104.9

Hercog

68.5

35.1

103.6

Giorgi

70.5

32

102.5

Cornet

69.6

32.5

102.1

Pliskova Ka

62.9

39.0

101.9

Goerges

62.9

34.6

97.5


WTA International Marrakech:-

2014 service hold 59.6% (Clay Court Mean 63.4%)

Conditions are likely to be very slow...

2014 Champion: Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor (beat Romina Oprandi in the final)
Predicted Weather: 32 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Muguruza

73.1

40.1

113.2

Vinci

68.5

38.5

107.0

Bacsinszky *

53.5

50.0

103.5

Puig

75.2

28.1

103.3

Svitolina

64.5

38.8

103.3

Pennetta

59.6

42.4

102.0

Arruabarrena

62.8

38.5

101.3

Schmiedlova

50.0

48.3

98.3

Kanepi

56.1

41.0

97.1

Knapp

57.9

33.3

91.2





* Using 3 year stats




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