2015 Season - Week 14 Tournament Previews


What a hectic week!  

Apologies for not posting this earlier but this has been the busiest week I can remember, with article writing and many matches (73 this Tuesday) across seven ATP/WTA and Challenger tournaments this week...

Week 14 got underway yesterday and already we've seen surprise exits for Dominic Thiem and Thiemo de Bakker in Barcelona, although De Bakker's exit wasn't such a surprise for spreadsheet subscribers, who were alerted to Ymer's value, not to mention the difficulties the Dutchman was likely to have in holding serve.  In Bucharest, the fancied Viktor Troicki was ousted by Daniel Gimeno-Traver whilst Florian Mayer's return to tour won't have been helped by being usurped by Malek Jaziri.  In Stuttgart yesterday there was just one match, with promising youngster Carina Witthoeft getting the better of the erratic Mona Barthel.

With time a premium this week I'll stick to the basics and give the raw stats with not much commentary - matches have been going on for several hours already today and I'm keen to get involved in the markets...

Week 14 Trading Overview (only matches where point by point data is available):-

Only matches where point by point available










Matches

S1 Winner Train S2

S2 Non Train

Train %

Set 3

S3 Player Breaks 1st Trains

S3 Non Train

Train %

ATP









Barcelona

47

18

29

38.3

9

3

6

33.3

Bucharest

26

11

15

42.3

11

9

2

81.8

Week 14 Overall

73

29

44

39.7

20

12

8

60.0

WTA









Stuttgart

28

4

24

14.3

8

6

2

75.0



The table above illustrates the percentage of situations that 'trained' in these events in 2014.  

As I mentioned in the previous previews, I've had some questions about trains on Twitter so I'll clarify this a little better - a train would be a situation where there is no upward price swing from a given position.  Therefore in these instances, a set one winner train in set two would indicate that they took a set and break lead in set two and retained this lead without being broken back.  A non-train would include the player that lost the first set breaking first in set two, or recovering a set and break deficit, or even recovering one break when a set and double break down.

Likewise, a set three train in this instance would be a player that has broken first and retains this lead throughout the deciding set.

Surprisingly for quite a quick event, Stuttgart didn't have many second set trains - I'll put that down to low ability differentials between most players, with many of the top players making an effort to play in Germany.

In the ATP, train percentage is a little on the high side, so picking spots is highly recommended for laying players when leading.

ATP 500 Barcelona:-

2014 service hold 74.3% (Clay Court Mean 75.6%)

Conditions are likely to be quite slow.  Matches with closer ability levels are likely to have more breaks and swings...

2014 Champion: Kei Nishikori (beat Santiago Giraldo in the final)
Predicted Weather: 20 degrees C, sunny.

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Nadal

83.2

42.3

125.5

Nishikori

81.7

35.4

117.1

Ferrer

79.7

36.6

116.3

Cuevas P

82.1

28.3

110.4

Verdasco

83.6

24.3

107.9

Bautista-Agut

77.1

30.3

107.4

Robredo

82.2

24.0

106.2

Tsonga

84.9

20.3

105.2

Cilic

79.9

23.6

103.5

Fognini

71.3

30.2

101.5


ATP 250 Bucharest:-

2014 service hold 74.8% (Clay Court Mean 75.6%)

Conditions are likely to be a little slow, with not as many swings as Barcelona...

2014 Champion: Grigor Dimitrov (beat Lukas Rosol in the final)
Predicted Weather: 14-21 degrees C, mixed (rain on Wednesday)

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Monfils

75.7

33.0

108.7

Gimeno-Traver

77.2

26.5

103.7

Garcia-Lopez

72.8

30.7

103.5

Simon

70.8

32.6

103.4

Coric

78.3

24.4

102.7

Lajovic

79.2

22.9

102.1

Haider-Maurer

78.8

22.6

101.4

Rosol

77.0

23.7

100.7

Vesely

78.8

19.6

98.4

Karlovic

88.7

9.0

97.7


WTA Premier Stuttgart:-

2014 service hold 65.4% (Clay Court Mean 63.4%)

Conditions are likely to be on the fast side of average, but close matches may give opportunities to lay leaders...

2014 Champion: Maria Sharapova (beat Ana Ivanovic in the final)
Predicted Weather: N/A (indoors)

Some Contenders:-

Player

18 Month Surface Hold %

18 Month Surface Break Opponent %

Combined %





Halep

75.5

52.5

128.0

Sharapova

72.8

47.3

120.1

Suarez Navarro

63.9

50.7

114.6

Muguruza

73.3

41.2

114.5

Errani

61.2

52.6

113.8

Ivanovic

70.7

42.0

112.7

Radwanska A

67.9

44.0

111.9

Safarova

70.4

38.9

109.3

Kerber

65.2

42.9

108.1

Kvitova

67.5

33.6

101.1

    TennisRatings          
     2015 Product             
       Portfolio:-
 
Please visit the
TennisRatings Products links for a full overview of our fantastic Tennis Trading tools, and the TennisRatings Subscription Packages link to see our great value range of discounted subscription packages!

Please check out our testimonials page!


The TennisRatings Daily Trading Spreadsheets have never been more popular!  

To check out how these can revamp your Tennis Trading, check out the YouTube Video we made for the old 'Tier 1' Spreadsheets.

The 2015 Daily Spreadsheets also include Rolling Projected Hold Data and Break Back Percentages!




The Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet has attracted great interest in the Tennis Trading community!  This incredible trading tool will transform your Tennis Trading and unearths statistics and trading angles you've never considered possible.  Due to the work required to get this powerful information, the data on this spreadsheet is available nowhere else online! 

For a free sample spreadsheet featuring 4 players, simply Sign Up for TennisRatings updates.

Feel free to check out our Video of how this product can help you in the Tennis Trading markets is available!
The Ultimate Pre-Match Spreadsheet is perfect for pre-match Tennis Bettors...

This new product, which was released in June 2014, shows the percentages for around 130 ATP players, and a similar figure for WTA players, for covering various handicap lines, including:-

* Various game handicap lines

* Various set handicap lines

* Various over/under total game lines

* Various over/under 9.5 games in first set lines


The Challenger Daily Spreadsheets cover all ATP Challenger Events and include projected hold percentages (for traders) and model prices (for bettors and traders).

Subscriptions are available until the end of the 2014 season:-

The TennisRatings In-Play Soccer Spreadsheet:-

Complete with in-play data on how often teams recover from in-play deficits in matches, and with home, away and overall data included, this is the TennisRatings Soccer version of the highly popular break-back concept in Tennis.  

Comments